[EHNUR WP 4] ADVANCED NUCLEAR POWER PLANT CONCEPTS AND TIMETABLES FOR THEIR COMMERCIAL DEPLOYMENT Steven C. Sholly1 VIENNA, June 2013 1 Institute of Safety/Security and Risk Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Copyright Vienna, June 2013 Media owner and editor: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, Institute of Safety and Risk Sciences, Borkowskigasse 4, 1190 Wien, Austria URL: http://www.risk.boku.ac.at ReportWP4 – Advanced Nuclear Power Plant Concepts and Timetables EHNUR EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Most currently operating nuclear power plants are Generation II reactors (except for a few remaining Generation I units and a few Generation III units). Generation III and Generation III+ nuclear power plant concepts are widely recognized to be significant improvements over Generation II reactor designs. Both Generation III designs (standardized designs safer than Generation II) and Generation III+ designs (standardized designs safer than Generation II and with the expectation of greater economy of scale) are available for immediate deployment. The absolute minimum schedule for a Generation III or III+ nuclear power plant project is 10 years from feasibility study to completion of startup testing. Such a schedule is only achievable by: (a) an experienced utility, (b) with the reactor sited at an existing nuclear power plant site, and (c) with a design for which first-of-a-kind engineering (FOAKE) is complete. Under other circumstances (e.g. a utility new to nuclear generation, a greenfield site, a utility in a country without significant nuclear infrastructure, a nuclear power plant design where FOAKE has not yet been accomplished), the schedule would extend from fifteen to seventeen years and perhaps more. Within the 2030 time horizon of the ENHUR project, there are a number of advanced reactor designs available for immediate deployment that could be licensed, constructed, and placed in operation in time contribute to electricity generation by the year 2030. These designs are: • Eight advanced pressurized water reactors (PWRs) – AP1000, APR-1400, APWR, ATMEA1, EPR, VVER-1000 AES-91, VVER-1000 AES-92, and VVER-1200/491. As of June 2013, two units of VVER- 1000 AES 91 were in operation, and two units of VVER-1000 AES 92 were nearing operation. The first units of AP1000 and EPR were also nearing operation. Units of the AP1000, APR-1400, EPR, and VVER-1200/491 designs were under construction in June 2013. • Five boiling water reactors (BWRs) – GE-Hitachi ABWR, ESBWR, Toshiba EU-ABWR, KERENA, and Toshiba US-ABWR. As of June 2013, there were four ABWRs in operation, and two ABWRs were under construction. • Two pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) – ACR-1000 and CANDU EC-6. There have been no orders as of June 2013 for either of these designs. • Three small modular reactors – CAREM-25, KLT-40S, and SMART, all PWRs. As of June 2013, there was one unit of CAREM-25 and two reactors (on one barge) of KLT-40S under construction. • One Generation IV Very High Temperature Reactor (HTR-PM). As of June 2013, there were two HTR-PM modules under construction. There are also five remaining Generation II reactor designs that were still (as of June 2013) under construction and for which plans exist to construct additional plants of these designs): BN-800 fast breeder reactor, the CNP-300 and CNP-600 PWRs, the CPR-1000 PWR, the PHWR-700, and the OPR- 1000 PWR. It is possible, although not very likely in view of the nominal duration of 17 years and the minimum to maximum range of 13-33 years for a nuclear power plant construction project (from feasibility study to commercial operation), that a few additional reactor designs with near-term deployment possibilities (2015-2020) could be finished in time to contribute to electricity generation by the year 2030. Plants with such designs would have to be ordered by 2015 -2020 in order to be able to be completed and online by 2030 using the absolute minimum schedule constraints (experienced utility, 3/134 ReportWP4 – Advanced Nuclear Power Plant Concepts and Timetables EHNUR existing nuclear power plant site, standard design with FOAKE complete, and design certification by the regulatory authority). There are an increasing number of advanced reactor designs that may become available in time to generate electricity after 2030. Generation IV design concepts are still being studied, and except for a few prototype units, Generation IV reactors are not expected to begin operation until 2040 or thereafter. Nuclear fusion, although promising as a source of electricity, has no chance of producing electricity before 2030, and only a small chance of producing electricity on a commercial scale before 2050. 4/134 ReportWP4 – Advanced Nuclear Power Plant Concepts and Timetables EHNUR CONTENT METHODOLOGY 9 Limitations 9 1 BACKGROUND 10 1.1 Status of operating units and units under construction 10 1.2 Development of the nuclear industry over the past 40 years 17 1.3 The stages in the design of a nuclear power plant 20 1.4 How long does it take for a nuclear power plant to be constructed and placed in operation? 23 2 ADVANCED REACTORS AND ISSUES RELATED THERETO 28 2.1 What are advanced reactors? 28 2.2 To which generation of reactors do the following designs correctly belong? 30 2.3 Which advanced reactor designs appear to have been abandoned, and for what reasons? 34 2.4 Nuclear power plant efficiency 34 2.5 Deterministic safety assessment (safety analysis) and probabilistic safety assessment (psa) 35 2.6 Cautionary discussion regarding advanced reactor cost estimates (the difference between over-night and all-in estimates) 39 3 HOW DO ADVANCED REACTORS COMPARE WITH GENERATION II NUCLEAR POWER PLANT DESIGNS? 43 4 HOW DOES THE DURATION OF SITING, AND CONSTRUCTON AFFECT THE POTENTIAL OF ADVANCED REACTORS TO BE DEPLOYED IN TIME TO START PRODUCING ELECTRICITY BEFORE 2030? 48 5 WHAT ADVANCED REACTOR DESIGNS COULD BE DEPLOYED IN TIME IN ORDER TO PRODUCE ELECTRICITY BEFORE 2030 – SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS 51 6 WHAT ADVANCED REACTOR DESIGNS ARE AVAILABLE FOR NEAR-TERM DEPLOYMENT (BEFORE 2020)? 56 7 BASED ON CURRENT (MID-2013) INFORMATION, WHAT ADVANCED REACTOR DESIGNS COULD BECOME AVAILABLE FOR DEPLOYMENT AFTER 2020 IN ORDER TO PRODUCE ELECTRICITY BEFORE 2050? 57 8 WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL ADVANTAGES AND DETRIMENTS OF SMALL MODULAR REACTORS? 58 9 WHAT IS THE DEPLOYMENT HORIZON FOR GENERATION IV ADVANCED REACTOR DESIGN CONCEPTS, AND WHAT ARE THE POTENTIAL ADVANTAGES AND DETRIMENTS OF SUCH CONCEPTS?59 10 WHAT IS THE DEPLOYMENT HORIZON FOR NUCLEAR FUSION TECHNOLOGY ON A COMMERCIAL SCALE? 62 5/134 ReportWP4 – Advanced Nuclear Power Plant Concepts and Timetables EHNUR 11 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS 64 REFERENCES 66 ANNEX 1 – ACRONYMS AND INITIALISMS 96 ANNEX 2 – DEFINITIONS OF TERMS 103 ANNEX 3 – PSA RESULTS FOR GENERATION III & III+ ADVANCED REACTORS AND GENERATION II REACTORS 108 ANNEX 4 – TABLES 110 6/134 ReportWP4 – Advanced Nuclear Power Plant Concepts and Timetables EHNUR LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: PWR REACTOR PRESSURE VESSEL. .......................................................................................................... 13 FIGURE 2: PRESSURIZED WATER REACTOR CONCEPT. ............................................................................................. 13 FIGURE 3: BOILING WATER REACTOR CONCEPT. ..................................................................................................... 14 FIGURE 4: GAS-COOLED REACTOR CONCEPTS. ........................................................................................................ 14 FIGURE 5: PHWR REACTOR CONCEPT. ..................................................................................................................... 15 FIGURE 6: VVER REACTOR CONCEPT– VVER PRIMARY SYSTEM. ................................................................................... 15 FIGURE 7: RBMK REACTOR CONCEPT. ..................................................................................................................... 16 FIGURE 8: FAST REACTOR CONCEPT. POOL & LOOP TYPE FBR. .................................................................................... 16 FIGURE 9: ILLUSTRATION OF NUCLEAR POWER - PLANT DESIGN GENERATIONS. ................................................... 29 FIGURE 10: ILLUSTRATION OF ADVERSE TURBINE ORIENTATION. ........................................................................... 45 FIGURE 11: ILLUSTRATION OF PARALLEL TURBINE HALLS. ...................................................................................... 46 FIGURE 12: GENERATION III+ EPR PWR (CUTAWAY VIEW). ............................................................................................. 53 FIGURE 13: GE-HITACHI ABWR (CUTAWAY VIEW). ........................................................................................................ 53 FIGURE 14: KLT-40S SMR (FLOATING NUCLEAR PLANT). ................................................................................................. 54 FIGURE 15: GENERATION II CPR-1000 PWR DESIGN (CUTAWAY VIEW). ............................................................................ 54 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: REACTOR DESIGNS AVAILABLE FOR IMMEDIATE DEPLOYMENT .............................................................................. 110 TABLE 2: GENERATION III AND III+ PRESSURIZED WATER REACTORS (PWRS) AVAILABLE FOR IMMEDIATE DEPLOYMENT............. 115 TABLE 3: GENERATION III