International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education (IJHSSE) Volume 5, Issue 5, May 2018, PP 35-41 ISSN 2349-0373 (Print) & ISSN 2349-0381 (Online) http://dx.doi.org/10.20431/2349-0381.0505005 www.arcjournals.org "A Study of the Aging and Social Welfare in Asia"- Singapore & Vietnam Ryotaro KATSURA* Vietnam-Japan University *Corresponding Author: Ryotaro KATSURA, Vietnam-Japan University, Japan 1. WHY IS AGING NOW A PROBLEM IN ASIA? When we consider the structure of the Asia population and the changes it is undergoing, we see that the problem of an aging population will have very important effects on the future of the continent. Specifically, it is clear that the processes of change are completely different from those in the Europe and the USA. Moreover, it is estimated that the average age of the Asian population will advance at a rate exceeding even the Japanese aging figures. The total population of Asia increased from 1.4 billion to 3.7 billion from 1950 to 2000, a 1.9% rate of increase per year. On the other hand, in the same period the population of those people aged 65 and over underwent an explosive increase, from 60 million to 220 million, an annual rate of 2.6%. This increase well exceeds the rate of expansion of the total population. The percent of aged people in the total population increased from 4% to 6% in the same period. However these figures have not yet reach the lower limit for the standard of an aged country, which is 7%, as defined by the United Nations. When we look at the age figures for Asia, only East Asia with 7.7% has reached or exceeded the 7% lower limit. Countries can be classified into the three groups, in terms of advancing aging population levels. The first group is the New Industrial Economy Societies (NIES) that have undergone advancing urbanization and industrialization, like Japan, and decreases in the birth rate: they are Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and Israel. The 2nd group is made up of countries that will reach the criteria for an aging society soon: Thailand, Viet Nam, India, and Sri Lanka. The 3rd group consists of countries that are in the process of becoming aging societies: the Philippines, Bangladesh, and others. However, even countries that were not facing the aging problem in 2000 will face that problem in 2050, and there will be an increase in the number of countries in which the rate of aged citizens will be more than 20%. East Asian countries will become “super aging societies” with a 30% age figure. On the other hand, countries in Southeast Asia will have 15% ratio of age and countries in South and Central Asia will have a 10 to 15% ratio. Countries in West Asia will have a 5 to 20% ratio (See table 1). 2. CURRENT STATUS OF AGING IN ASIA A generally held belief is that lowering death rates and the extension of the average lifespan are what lead to the graying of the population. However, the largest actual cause of this change is the lowering of the birth rate. The extension of the average lifespan in under-developed countries has been derived from the lowering of the death rates among babies rather than the lowering of the death rate among the middle-aged and elderly. The lowering of babies’ death rates leads to an increase in the ratio of young in the population, so the average age of the entire population is lower. On the other hand, the lowering of the birth rate results in fewer young people, so the average age of the entire population becomes higher. In addition, even when the birth rate drops, the phenomenon of an aging population does not appear quickly. There is a time lag of 10 to 20 years before we see this growth in the number of aged. The length of this time lag depends upon not only upon the speed that the birth rate drops but also on the drop of the death rate and the differences in the initial conditions. Generally speaking, with a rapid drop in the birth rate, there is a rapid increase in aging of the population. The interval that it takes for the aged rate to double from 7% to 14% indicates the aging speed of each country (see table 1). The period that it took for the aged rate to double was quite long in France (115 years) and less in England (47 years). However, the table shows that in Asian countries except Hong Kong the periods are shorter -- less than 30 years. Among the countries that had a fall in total birth International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education (IJHSSE) Page | 35 "A Study of the Aging and Social Welfare in Asia"- Singapore & Vietnam rate to 3% in 1970 -- Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore -- Hong Kong reached an aged rate of 7% earlier (1983), but the period it took for the aged ratio to double was longer than the other three countries, 33 years. This may have been caused by immigration from China. Asian countries changed their population styles from many births and deaths to few births and deaths, which resulted in a rapid advancement of aging of the population. Each country needs to cope with the issue of a large number of aged in economic, financial, and social terms. Table1. Aging populations and aged ratios (1950 to 2050) Area, country Citizens 65 and over (1,000) Ratio of citizens 65 and over in total populations. 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 World 130865 231182 419197 822876 1418742 5.2 5.7 6.9 10.5 15.9 Advanced area 64034 112534 170744 260851 315507 7.9 10.7 14.3 21.0 25.9 Under 66831 118648 248453 582025 1103234 3.9 3.9 5.1 8.5 14.3 developing area Asia 57516 100835 215947 474519 879630 4.1 4.2 5.9 10.0 16.8 East Asia 29976 51767 114662 243506 381372 4.5 4.7 7.7 14.7 24.0 China 24851 40830 87295 194100 319262 4.5 4.4 6.8 13.4 22.9 Hong Kong 49 237 723 1726 2793 25 54 10.6 20.3 29.6 North Korea 336 579 1315 2484 4317 3.1 3.6 5.9 10.1 17.3 Japan 4135 8790 21862 36070 40077 4.9 7.9 17.2 29.2 36.5 South Korea 574 1273 3338 8812 14154 3.0 3.6 7.1 17.6 30.5 Southeast Asia 6752 11428 24411 57393 126047 3.8 3.6 4.7 8.3 16.4 Cambodia 118 199 376 965 2221 2.7 2.8 2.9 4.4 7.5 Indonesia 3150 4410 10242 22642 49706 4.0 3.3 4.8 8.4 16.9 Laos 49 81 184 393 1008 2.8 2.7 3.5 4.6 8.8 Malaysia 309 457 934 2967 6227 5.1 3.7 4.1 8.9 15.7 Myanma 578 1229 2191 4774 9658 3.2 4.1 4.6 8.0 15.0 Philippine 718 1291 2670 7318 17836 3.6 3.1 3.5 6.7 14.0 Singapore 24 93 287 1090 1383 2.4 4.1 7.2 22.2 30.5 Thailand 637 1317 3319 8607 16590 3.2 3.2 5.4 11.7 21.5 Viet Nam 1152 2329 4178 8536 21173 4.2 4.9 5.3 8.2 18.0 South Asia 18582 33450 68325 153576 323606 3.7 3.8 4.6 7.3 13.1 Bangladesh 1514 2644 4334 10989 28743 3.6 3.5 3.1 5.3 11.3 India 11971 23749 50015 111975 221266 3.3 3.8 4.9 8.2 14.4 Nepal 355 464 857 1816 4501 4.1 3.5 3.6 4.8 8.9 Pakistan 2120 2385 5186 12022 29325 5.3 3.4 3.6 4.8 8.4 Sri Lana 409 546 1249 3294 4809 5.5 4.1 6.7 12.9 22.7 Note: Figures for 2025 and 2050 are mid-term estimates. Data: United Nations (2003) Source: Haruo Sagaza, 'Population changes and social and economic developments in Asia,' in Hirofumi Tanada "Fewer children and aged and social and economic development in Asia," issued by Waseda University Press on 2005. Figure1. Total birth rate change periods and aged ratio doubling periods in Asian countries International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education (IJHSSE) Page | 36 "A Study of the Aging and Social Welfare in Asia"- Singapore & Vietnam Birth rate change period Aged ratio doubling period (Total birth rate dropped from 5.0 to 2.1) (Ratio of aged 65 and over increased from 7% to 14%) Source: Haruo Sagaza, 'Population changes and social and economic developments in Asia,' in Hirofumi Tanada "Fewer children and aged and social and economic development in Asia," issued by Waseda University Press on 2005. 3. GRAYING SOCIETIES AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS IN ASIA When we look at types of families containing elderly people in Asian countries, where there are members older than 60, the percentage of three-generation families in 1996 was 36% in Korea and 43% in Thailand. These figures are more than 7% higher than the figure for Japan. On the other hand, the percent of aged families containing only a couple and of aged people living alone were 30% and 14%, respectively in Korea and 7% and 5% in Thailand. By the way, in the USA, the percentage of three-generation families was 2%, of aged couples living alone was 35%, and for aged people living alone was 40% in the same year.