Cactus Tourism Journal Vol. 12, Issue 2/2015, Pages 22-32, ISSN 2247-3297 THE INFLUENCE OF MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS ON A REGION'S TOURIST INDUSTRY AND PERCEPTION BY TOURISTS. CASE STUDY: CRIMEA Constantin Ștefan1 Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania ABSTRACT Periodically certain countries or regions of the world are affected by various types of political unrest, such as wars ‒ including civil, revolutions, power struggles etc. In some cases, these regions have significantly developed tourist industries. In case these political events are violent, the result is predictable: a complete or almost complete halt of tourism in the region, most often accompanied by the destruction of the tourist infrastructure. But when these events are not violent, the effects on tourism may vary. As of 2015, the Crimean Peninsula is one of Europe's geopolitical hotspots and one of the world's disputed territories. This reputation comes from the fact that in March 2014 the territory switched sovereignty from Ukraine to Russia, following what many other states have qualified as an invasion and/or an illegally-held referendum. The purpose of this article is to examine the effects this series of events has had on the area's tourist industry. The article features the results of a research based on a survey, which was meant to evaluate the respondents' perception of the region. This survey was conducted among subjects from numerous European and former Soviet countries. The results have shown that there are certain differences in the perception of Crimea between Europe and the former Soviet states. These differences have the potential to shape the tourist industry of the region in the near future. Keywords Crimea, Russia, Ukraine, tourism, influence of politics on tourism JEL classifications L83, F59 Introduction Crimea is a peninsula located in Eastern Europe, on the northern shores of the Black Sea. It is bordered by the Black Sea to the west and south, by the Azov Sea to the east and it is linked in three points in the north to the Kherson Province of Ukraine. The dominant type of landform in the peninsula is steppe, which covers all the area, except the south, which is home to the Crimean Mountains, located right next to the southern shores (Podgorodetskiy 1988). The climate of Crimea is temperate and less harsh than the one of the Russian and Ukrainian steppe, due to the influence of the Black Sea. Summers are quite warm with average temperatures around 24ºC along the coast (Parubets 2009). The southern part of the peninsula is the main tourist region of the peninsula, as it is there that starting with the 1950's numerous seaside resorts have developed. The most renowned of these are, from west to east, Foros, Simeiz, Alupka, Koreiz, Haspra, Yalta, Partenit, Alushta, Sudak, Koktebel and Feodosiya. This area has become known as the Crimean Riviera or the Ukrainian Riviera. The main points of interest on the eastern coast are the cities of Sevastopol (administratively separate from the rest of Crimea) and Yevpatoriya (Krymova 2015). There are some other point of interest inland, such as the districts of Simferopol and Bakhchisaray. The Crimean Peninsula has a very long and reach history, which was shaped by a long string of nations, such as the Taurids, Scythians, Greeks, Goths, Huns, Khazars, Bulgars, Crimean Tatars (who gave the peninsula's name), Karaites, Jews, Germans and finally, Russians and Ukrainians (Andreev 2013). But the theme of this article is mostly related to the region's more recent history. Crimea first became part of the Russian Empire in 1784, after its annexation by Catherine the Great, following the treaty of Küçük Kaynarca (Starikov & Belyaev 2015, p. 225). After this point it was the site of many wars which had a great significance to Russian and Soviet history: the Crimean War (1853-56), World War I and the Russian Civil War (1914-17; 1917-22) and World War II (1941-45). The forced expulsion of the Crimean Tatars represented one of the greatest mass deportations in Soviet history (Seitovna 2011). The 1 PhD Student e-mail: [email protected] Cactus Tourism Journal Vol. 12, Issue 2/2015, Pages 22-32, ISSN 2247-3297 most notable event in Crimea's post war Soviet history took place in 1954, when Nikita Khrushchev, the leader of the USSR decreed the transfer of the Crimean Province from the RSFSR to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. This transfer was motivated by the fact that the region had close economic, trade and cultural ties with the Ukrainian SSR, but also by the geographic proximity between Crimea and the Ukrainian SSR (Starikov & Belyaev 2015, p. 83). At the moment of the transfer, the political impact was limited, as it consisted simply of redrawing some internal borders of the USSR. This also marked the point when the development of tourism in the region truly began. Soviet authorities started investing in the development of various tourists establishments such as spas and resorts and it shortly became a well known and appreciated destination throughout the USSR and the Eastern Block. This state of affairs continued until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when following a referendum across the whole Ukrainian SSR, Ukraine became an independent state, encompassing Crimea. The following years were marked by growing political tensions in the newly formed only autonomous republic of Ukraine. The root of much of this tension were the ethnic differences between Crimea and the rest of the country. Another important issue concerning the peninsula was the Russian Black Sea fleet. Ever since its foundation, the bulk of this fleet was stationed in Crimea, more exactly in Sevastopol (Sosnovskiy 2014). ethnic and cultural differences reached their peak in early 2014, when following the toppling of the pro-Russian government of Viktor Yanukovich, major riots, which came to be known as Euromaidan, broke out in Kiev and across Ukraine and a new government, led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk. The reason why these riots spread to Crimea was the abolition of a law concerning regional languages which had the potential to cancel the privileges the Russian language held in many regions of the country (Shevchenko 2014). The end of February 2014 saw daily demonstrations in Simferopol, Crimea's regional capital, both pro-Euromaidan and anti-Euromaidan. On 27 February government buildings and military bases in many points on the peninsula were surrounded by unidentified and unmarked troops, which came to be known popularly as little green men, and checkpoints were established at the two points linking Crimea to the Ukrainian mainland, effectively cutting off ties with the rest of Ukraine in establishing a de facto government of the peninsula, completely autonomous from the one in Kiev. On 1 March 2014 Sergey Aksyonov, the leader of this self-proclaimed government, asked Russia for assistance in maintaining peace and public order in the region. By the next day Russian troops exercised complete control over the peninsula. On 16th March Crimean authorities held a referendum on the future status of Crimea, namely whether the region should join the Russian Federation or remain part of Ukraine. The official results were overwhelmingly in favor of becoming a federal subject of Russia, with over 95% of the votes in favor of such a union (www.ria.ru). The voter turnout was above 83%. A treaty of accession was signed on 18th March and the formal change of sovereignty was completed within days. Effects of Crimea's sovereignty change on tourism For most of the period from 2003 to 2013 tourism in Crimea has had an ascending evolution. The only exception was 2009, when the drop in tourist arrivals was due to the world economic crisis. For most of this ascending evolution the yearly levels of tourist arrivals were situated between 5 and 6 million tourists, both internal and international arrivals. It is also worth mentioning that for all this period the number of "organized tourists" was between 1-1,3 millions yearly (mtur.rk.gov.ru). Organized tourists are those who spent their holiday in officially registered establishments. The rest are those who preferred private apartments and other forms of accommodation. In 2014 a visible drop in tourist arrivals occurred, down from 6,1 million arrivals in the previous year to only 4 million. This change can be attributed to the political events that took place that year and their consequences, which were described in the previous sections. The target announced by the Crimean Tourist Authority for 2015 was 4,5 mil. (crimea.ria.ru). But as of September 2015, after the summer season, only 3,4 mil. tourist arrivals were registered in the Republic of Crimea (see fig. 1). Cactus Tourism Journal Vol. 12, Issue 2/2015, Pages 22-32, ISSN 2247-3297 Figure 1 Tourist arrivals in Crimea over a period of 12 years Source: mtur.rk.gov.ru From 2009 to 2013 most of the tourists who visited Crimea (65-74%) were internal tourists, (Ukrainian citizens). This share rose to levels above 85% in 2014 and the first three quarters of 2015, but the internal tourists are now Russian citizens, who formerly represented only about 25% of total tourist arrivals (crimea.ria.ru). The majority of the remaining after the annexation to Russia were Ukrainian citizens. As far as preferences for certain locations in the peninsula go, the vast majority of tourists, choose the southern coast. In 2013, more than half chose the biggest resorts in the south of the peninsula: Yalta 34,8%, Alushta 19,2% and also Feodosiya 6,7% (mtur.rk.gov.ru). A significant 19,2% chose the western coast resort of Yevpatoriya and 4,9% the nearby Saki.