Disease Risk Analysis for Birds at Ramsar Wetlands in Port Phillip Bay (Western Shoreline) and Bellarine Peninsula 11 - 12 March 2020 Disclaimer This Disease Risk Analysis (DRA) Worksheet has been developed by Auckland Zoo on behalf of the IUCN-SSC Conservation Planning Specialist Group (CPSG) to provide a structured template for the capture of outputs from wildlife disease risk analyses. CPSG encourages the sharing of completed DRAs using this template to assist other and progress the science of wildlife DRA, no responsibility is accepted for the validity of data, opinions or recommendations contained therein. Anyone who wishes to make their completed DRAs available to others can contact the CPSG office at [email protected] Wiethoelter A, Whiteley P, Gang R and Jakob-Hoff R (2020) Disease Risk Analysis for Birds at Ramsar Wetlands in Port Phillip Bay (Western Shoreline) and Bellarine Peninsula. IUCN SSC Conservation Planning Specialist Group: Apple Valley, MN. Cover photo ©: Anke Wiethoelter This report can be downloaded from the CPSG website: www.cpsg.org. 2 PPBBP Ramsar Wetland DRA, 2020 Table of Contents 37TList of Figures37T ............................................................................................................................................... 4 37TList of Tables37T ................................................................................................................................................ 5 37TACKNOWLEDMENTS37T .................................................................................................................................... 7 37TEXECUTIVE SUMMARY37T ................................................................................................................................. 8 37TINTRODUCTION37T ........................................................................................................................................... 9 37TPROBLEM DESCRIPTION37T ............................................................................................................................ 10 37THAZARD IDENTIFICATION37T .......................................................................................................................... 19 37TRISK ASSESSMENTS37T .................................................................................................................................... 39 37TRisk assessment – Botulism37T ................................................................................................................... 39 37TRisk assessment – Pasteurellosis37T ........................................................................................................... 50 37TRisk assessment – Pollutants37T ................................................................................................................. 61 37TRECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS37T ............................................................................................... 74 37TRISK COMMUNICATION37T ............................................................................................................................. 79 37TREFERENCES37T .............................................................................................................................................. 82 37TAPPENDICES37T ............................................................................................................................................... 93 37TAPPENDIX 1. SPECIES LIST37T ...................................................................................................................... 93 37TAPPENDIX 2. HAZARD LIST37T ................................................................................................................... 126 37TAPPENDIX 3. DISEASE SUMMARIES37T ..................................................................................................... 153 37TAPPENDIX 4. WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS37T ............................................................................................ 211 37TAPPENDIX 5. WORKSHOP SCHEDULE37T .................................................................................................. 213 3 PPBBP Ramsar Wetland DRA, 2020 List of Figures Figure 1. Disease risk analysis process steps ................................................................................................ 9 Figure 2. Map of the Port Phillip Bay (Western Shoreline) and Bellarine Peninsula Ramsar site .............. 10 Figure 3. Interactions between waterbirds, wildlife, livestock, domestic animals, and humans. ............. 14 Figure 4. Reported bird deaths from the Port Phillip Bay (Western Shoreline) and Bellarine Peninsula Ramsar site and immediate surrounding areas, 2005-2019. ..................................................................... 14 Figure 5. Hazard transmission pathways and critical control points (CCPs) for botulism. ......................... 34 Figure 6. Hazard transmission pathways and critical control points (CCPs) for pasteurellosis. ................. 36 Figure 7. Hazard transmission pathways and critical control points (CCPs) for pollutants........................ 37 Figure 8. Risk assessment matrix combining release, exposure and consequence assessment. .............. 40 Figure 9. Timelines for management action and research plans for botulism, pasteurellosis and pollutants. ................................................................................................................................................... 74 Figure 10. Angiostrongyliasis transmission cycle ..................................................................................... 200 4 PPBBP Ramsar Wetland DRA, 2020 List of Tables Table 1. Diagnoses in birds at the Port Phillip Bay (Western Shoreline) and Bellarine Peninsula Ramsar site. ............................................................................................................................................................. 15 Table 2. Managing agencies for the Port Phillip Bay (Western Shoreline) and Bellarine Peninsula Ramsar wetland site. ............................................................................................................................................... 18 Table 3. Hazard prioritization criteria for wild birds at PPBBP Ramsar site ............................................... 20 Table 4. Risk prioritization matrix for shore and water-based birds. ......................................................... 21 Table 5. Risk prioritization matrix for land-based birds ............................................................................. 22 Table 6. Risk prioritization matrix for predators. ....................................................................................... 23 Table 7. Comparison of hazard prioritisation rationales across the three functional bird groups. ........... 24 Table 8. Highest-ranking hazards identified by each functional bird group. ............................................. 33 Table 9. Critical control points (CCPs) in the hazard transmission pathways of botulism. ........................ 35 Table 10. Critical control points (CCPs) in the hazard transmission pathway of pasteurellosis................. 36 Table 11. Critical control points (CCPs) in the hazard transmission pathways of pollutants. .................... 37 Table 12. Knowledge gaps and measures to reduce uncertainty in this risk assessment for botulism. .... 41 Table 13. Environment, agent and host factors for botulism..................................................................... 42 Table 14. Risk management option evaluation for botulism to wild birds at the PPBBP Ramsar site. ...... 44 Table 15. Risk management action plan for botulism to wild birds at the PPBBP Ramsar site. ................ 46 Table 16. Action plan addressing knowledge gaps for botulism to wild birds at the PPBBP Ramsar site. 48 Table 17. Knowledge gaps and measures to reduce uncertainty in this risk assessment for pasteurellosis. .................................................................................................................................................................... 51 Table 18. Environment, agent and host factors for pasteurellosis. ........................................................... 53 Table 19. Risk management option evaluation for pasteurellosis to wild birds at the PPBBP Ramsar site. .................................................................................................................................................................... 55 Table 20. Management action plan for pasteurellosis to wild birds at the PPBBP Ramsar site. ............... 58 Table 21. Action plan addressing knowledge gaps for pasteurellosis to wild birds at the PPBBP Ramsar site. ............................................................................................................................................................. 59 Table 22. Knowledge gaps and measures to reduce uncertainty in this risk assessment for pollutants ... 63 Table 23. Environment, agent and host factors for pollutants and contaminants. ................................... 64 Table 24. Risk management option evaluation for pollutants to wild birds at the PPBBP Ramsar site..... 66 Table 25. Management action plan for pollutants to wild birds at the PPBBP Ramsar site. ..................... 70 Table 26. Action plan addressing knowledge gaps for pollutants to wild birds at the PPBBP Ramsar site. ...................................................................................................................................................................