Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2019-12 DIVERSIONARY THREATS IN LATIN AMERICA: WHEN AND WHY DO GOVERNMENTS USE THE THREAT OF FOREIGN INVASION, INTERVENTION, OR TERRORIST ATTACK? Searcy, Mason Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/64063 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS DIVERSIONARY THREATS IN LATIN AMERICA: WHEN AND WHY DO GOVERNMENTS USE THE THREAT OF FOREIGN INVASION, INTERVENTION, OR TERRORIST ATTACK? by Mason Searcy December 2019 Thesis Advisor: Cristiana Matei Second Reader: Tristan J. Mabry Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Form Approved OMB REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) December 2019 Master's thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS DIVERSIONARY THREATS IN LATIN AMERICA: WHEN AND WHY DO GOVERNMENTS USE THE THREAT OF FOREIGN INVASION, INTERVENTION, OR TERRORIST ATTACK? 6. AUTHOR(S) Mason Searcy 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis explains when and how Latin American leaders use diversionary force and the rally around the flag phenomenon in order to help shore up domestic support. This better understanding will allow policy makers to better predict Latin American leaders’ actions and to construct more specifically tailored foreign policies toward the region. The use of diversionary force by Latin American leaders has a broad history, and this thesis focuses on two case studies: Alberto Fujimori and his use of diversionary tactics against domestic terrorism threats, especially Sendero Luminoso in Peru, and Nicolás Maduro’s inflation of the threat of a U.S. or Western-led invasion of Venezuela. The thesis concludes that both autocratic regimes used diversionary tactics frequently, and continued to employ them regardless of the viability of the threat and the independence of other political institutions. As the situation in Latin America deteriorates, there is a pressing need to comprehend the inflammatory rhetoric of autocrats like Maduro in order to further U.S. efforts to create and implement a more constructive foreign policy toward the region. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Latin America, diversionary tactics, rhetoric, threat, invasion, rally around the flag, PAGES legitimacy, foreign politics, domestic security threat, Fujimori, Chavez, Maduro, 81 Montasinos, Shining Path, Venezuela, Peru, Organization of American States, domestic 16. PRICE CODE threat, populism, caudillismo, chavizmo, counterinsurgency, SIN, domestic support, intermestic, military coup, internal unrest, Vargas, diversionary force 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. DIVERSIONARY THREATS IN LATIN AMERICA: WHEN AND WHY DO GOVERNMENTS USE THE THREAT OF FOREIGN INVASION, INTERVENTION, OR TERRORIST ATTACK? Mason Searcy Lieutenant, United States Navy BA, Old Dominion University, 2013 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (WESTERN HEMISPHERE) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2019 Approved by: Cristiana Matei Advisor Tristan J. Mabry Second Reader Afshon P. Ostovar Associate Chair for Research Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis explains when and how Latin American leaders use diversionary force and the rally around the flag phenomenon in order to help shore up domestic support. This better understanding will allow policy makers to better predict Latin American leaders’ actions and to construct more specifically tailored foreign policies toward the region. The use of diversionary force by Latin American leaders has a broad history, and this thesis focuses on two case studies: Alberto Fujimori and his use of diversionary tactics against domestic terrorism threats, especially Sendero Luminoso in Peru, and Nicolás Maduro’s inflation of the threat of a U.S. or Western-led invasion of Venezuela. The thesis concludes that both autocratic regimes used diversionary tactics frequently, and continued to employ them regardless of the viability of the threat and the independence of other political institutions. As the situation in Latin America deteriorates, there is a pressing need to comprehend the inflammatory rhetoric of autocrats like Maduro in order to further U.S. efforts to create and implement a more constructive foreign policy toward the region. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................1 A. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH QUESTION ...........................1 B. LITERATURE REVIEW .........................................................................3 1. The Realist Theory of War............................................................4 2. The Constructivist Theory of War ...............................................6 3. The Liberal Theory of War ...........................................................7 4. Conclusion of Literature Review ................................................11 C. POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS AND HYPOTHESES .....................11 D. RESEARCH DESIGN .............................................................................13 E. THESIS OVERVIEW .............................................................................13 II. ALBERTO FUJIMORI: USE OF DIVERSIONARY TACTICS AGAINST DOMESTIC TERRORISM TO INCREASE DOMESTIC SUPPORT FOR HIGH-RISK POLITICAL MANEUVERS ..........................15 A. FUJIMORI’S RISE TO POWER AND CONSOLIDATION AS A POPULIST LEADER ..........................................................................16 B. FUJIMORI’S ROLE AS A POPULIST LEADER ...............................21 C. FUJIMORI’S FIGHT AGAINST SENDERO LUMINOSO ...............23 D. CHAPTER CONCLUSION ....................................................................28 III. VENEZUELAN CAUDILLISMO: USE OF DIVERSIONARY TACTICS AND DEPENDENCE ON POPULAR SUPPORT .........................29 A. THE RISE OF CHAVISMO AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF EXECUTIVE POWER ............................................................................30 B. FAILED COUP AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE U.S. RESPONSE ..............................................................................................36 C. DETERIORATING RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES ....................................................................................................38 D. MADURO’S USE OF DIVERSIONARY TACTICS ...........................39 E. CHAPTER CONCLUSION ....................................................................43 IV. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION ......................................45 A. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PERU AND VENEZUELA ..........45 1. Analysis of Threat Credibility ....................................................47 2. Analysis of Institutional Effects on the Use of Diversionary Tactics ....................................................................49 B. FINDINGS ................................................................................................51 C. FURTHER RESEARCH .........................................................................53 vii LIST OF REFERENCES ................................................................................................55 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST ...................................................................................65 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Comparative Analysis of the Autocratic Administrations of Alberto Fujimori and Nicolas Maduro ....................................................................47 ix THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK x LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CCD Congreso Constituvente Democratic CT Counterterrorism MRTA Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement MVR Fifth Republic