Public Opinion in Hungary March 2-8, 2017 Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research by Ipsos Hungary Zrt. • Data was collected between March 2 and March 8, 2017 through face-to-face interviews. • The total number of interviews was 1,000. • Sample size: Tot a l population (n=1,000). • Margin of error: Plus or minus 3.25 percent with 95 percent confidence level. • The sample is comprised of Hungarian residents aged 18 years and older. • Regions included in the sample are: Central Hungary; Central Transdanubia; Western Transdanubia; Southern Transdanubia; Northern Hungary; Northern Great Plain; and the Southern Great Plain. The sample includes both urban and rural inhabitants. Inhabitants of poorly accessible, remote parts of the country (comprising approximately 1% percent of the population) were excluded from the sample. • The sample design was a three-stage, random sample. • Stage One: Primary sampling unit—settlements • Stage Two: Secondary sampling unit—addresses • Stage Three: Tertiary sampling unit—respondent (selected individuals within randomly selected address by using quotas based on age and gender). • Figures in charts and tables may not add to up 100 percent due to rounding error and/or multiple choice answers. 2 Glossary of Hungarian Political Parties • Fidesz-MPSZ: Fidesz-Hungarian Civic Alliance • Jobbik: Movement for Better Hungary • MSZP: Hungarian Socialist Party • DK: Democratic Coalition • LMP: Politics Can Be Different • Együtt: Together-Party for a New Era • KDNP: Christian Democratic People’s Party • MKKP: Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party • Munkáspárt: Hungarian Worker’s Party • MoMa: Modern Hungary Movement • MLP: Hungarian Liberal Party 3 Opinions of the National and Regional Context Generally speaking, would you say that Hungary is heading… 12% 38% In the right direction In the wrong direction 50% Don't know/Refused to answer 5 What would you say is the single biggest problem facing Hungary today; that is, the one that you are most concerned about? (Spontaneous answers) Poverty and social inequality 28% Corruption 15% Unemployment and jobs 13% Healthcare 12% Immigration control 4% Problems affecting youth 4% Pensions 4% Education/School system 3% Economy 3% Politics/Internal politics 3% Terrorism 2% Social problems 2% Rise of extremism 1% Crime 1% Safety/Peace/Security 1% Work of the institutions/Rule of law 1% Nepotism 1% Taxes 1% Threats against the environment 1% Other 1% 6 What is the single biggest problem facing Europe today; that is, the one that you are most concerned about? (Spontaneous answers) Terrorism 26% Immigration control 19% Poverty and social inequality 11% Corruption 8% Rise of extremism 6% Politics/Internal politics 4% Crime 4% Safety/Peace/Security 4% Unemployment and jobs 3% Healthcare 3% Economy 3% Problems affecting youth 2% Pensions 2% Social problems 2% Threats against the environment 2% Education/School system 1% Work of the institutions/Rule of law 1% Taxes 1% Other 1% 7 What has the greatest likelihood of threatening our way of life and our children’s future? 40% Bankruptcy and disappearance of health and social security systems 34% 35% Terrorism, extremism, and 30% political violence 28% 25% Migration and demographic change 20% 19% Collapse of banks/Financial 15% system/General economic collapse 10% 9% War/Expansion of the conflict in Ukraine 6% 5% 3% 1% Loss of culture, values, and the way of life we grew up with 0% Other 8 Do you think that today’s generation of young people has a good future in Hungary? 26% Yes No 74% 9 Do you think that the process of globalization has benefitted or hurt your family? Very much hurt 11% Somewhat hurt 44% Somewhat benefitted 41% Very much benefitted 5% 10 Did you vote in the Hungary parliamentary elections? 2% Yes 30% No 68% No answer/Refused to answer 11 How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections? Very unlikely 13% Somewhat unlikely 15% Somewhat likely 30% Very likely 42% 12 If elections were held this coming Sunday, for which party would you vote? (Respondents who have decided: n=538) Fidesz-MPSZ 42% Jobbik 18% MSZP 16% DK 9% LMP 6% Együtt 2% MKKP 1% Munkáspárt 1% Decided population MoMa 1% KDNP 1% MLP 1% Other 3% *See glossary of political parties on Slide 3. 13 If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support? Man 25% Woman 60% 15% Makes no difference to me 14 Trust in the Political System What is needed most in Hungary right now? 5% Stability and 45% continuity Change 50% Don't know/Refused to answer 16 What should such a change look like? (Respondents who said that change is needed: n=497) 45% Change of government from 40% 39% 38% the current party to the opposition 35% party 30% Change of party leadership so that 25% 23% new faces are in control 20% 15% Constitutional or systemic change that would alter 10% completely the way government 5% business is conducted 0% 17 What should such a change look like? Age:18-29 Age:60+ 60% 60% Change of 55% government from the current party 50% to the opposition 50% party 45% 40% 40% Change of party leadership so that new faces are in control 30% 27% 28% 30% 28% 20% Constitutional or 20% 17% systemic change that would alter completely the way government 10% business is 10% conducted 0% 0% 18 What is needed most at the European level? 9% Stability and continuity 37% 54% Change Don't know/Refused to answer 19 If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy? Democracy is definitely more important 24% to me Democracy is somewhat more important 30% to me Prosperity is somewhat more important 32% to me Prosperity is definitely more important 14% to me 20 Do you agree or disagree with the following statements: “Politicians do not listen to the needs and “Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women.” ideas of young people.” Agree Agree 32% 39% 61% 68% Disagree Disagree 21 Issues of Identity Opinions of the European Union: Which statement is closest to your opinion? The EU is a political community, granting certain rights and 15% benefits to all citizens, and requiring loyalty and sacrifice in 34% return. The EU is an association of sovereign states, with little connection to individual citizens; 51% citizens owe loyalty and sacrifice to their states, not to the EU. Don't know 23 On a scale from 1 to 5, does Hungary have more in common with Western Europe or with Russia in the following areas? (1=completely akin to Western Europe; 5=completely akin to Russia) Completely akin to Western Europe (1) Somewhat akin to Western Europe (2) Somewhere in between (3) Somewhat akin to Russia (4) Completely akin to Russia (5) Healthcare, pensions, and other social benefits 3% 16% 32% 25% 15% Employment and standard of living 3% 15% 35% 25% 12% Morality and values 7% 25% 35% 16% 7% Culture and intellectual life 9% 29% 36% 12% 5% 24 On a scale from 1 to 5, does Hungary have more in common with Western Europe or with Russia in the following areas? (1=completely akin to Western Europe; 5=completely akin to Russia) (Disaggregated by age: 45-60yrs, n=284) Completely akin to Western Europe (1) Somewhat akin to Western Europe (2) Somewhere in between (3) Somewhat akin to Russia (4) Completely akin to Russia (5) Healthcare, pensions, 15% social benefits 2% 30% 22% 16% Employment and standard of living 3% 10% 35% 26% 13% Morality and values 7% 22% 30% 18% 10% Culture and intellectual life 9% 28% 31% 12% 7% 25 On a scale from 1 to 5, does Hungary have more in common with Western Europe or with Russia in the following areas? (1=completely akin to Western Europe; 5=completely akin to Russia) (Disaggregated by age: 60+, n=264) Completely akin to Western Europe (1) Somewhat akin to Western Europe (2) Somewhere in between (3) Somewhat akin to Russia (4) Completely akin to Russia (5) Healthcare, pensions, social 14% benefits 3% 25% 29% 20% Employment and standard of 14% living 2% 32% 28% 15% Morality and values 6% 24% 36% 17% 7% Culture and intellectual life 5% 27% 41% 12% 3% 26 Vladimir Putin’s Russia has tried to portray itself as a defender of Christendom and traditional European values in areas ranging from the protection of the family unit to defending against Islamic and other non-European cultures. What is your opinion of this view of Russia? It is true – on this issue at least, Russia has taken the side of traditional European values. 18% 19% It is not really true – Russia is just cynically pretending to stand up for traditional European values, while really pursuing its own geopolitical interests. 14% It is not true at all – it demonstrates 49% Russia’s rejection of modern Western values of tolerance and inclusiveness. Don't know 27 How, then, do you view Russia and Putin as you try to address these changes in European culture and practice? (Respondents who said that they believe that Russia is defending European values: n=183) 40% Russia and Putin can be allies 35% against an EU that is pushing us 35% to abandon our values. 30% 30% I wish Russia could be an ally, but I don’t trust Putin; some 25% 24% cooperation would be possible, but I would be very careful.