Foresight 100 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs for the future 100 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs for the future European Commission Directorate-General for Research and Innovation Directorate A — Policy Development and Coordination Unit A.2 — Research & Innovation Strategy Contact Nikolaos Kastrinos E-mail [email protected] [email protected] European Commission B-1049 Brussels Manuscript completed in May 2019 This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. More information on the European Union is available on the internet (http://europa.eu). Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of the following information. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2019 PDF ISBN 978-92-79-99139-4 doi: 10.2777/24537 KI-04-19-053-EN-N © European Union, 2019. Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. Cover page image: © Lonely # 46246900, ag visuell #16440826, Sean Gladwell #6018533, LwRedStorm #3348265, 2011; kras99 #43746830, 2012. Source: Fotolia.com. EUROPEAN COMMISSION 100 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs for the future The Radical Innovation Breakthrough Inquirer Authors Philine Warnke, Kerstin Cuhls, Ulrich Schmoch, Lea Daniel Fraunhofer ISI Liviu Andreescu, Bianca Dragomir, Radu Gheorghiu, Catalina Baboschi, Adrian Curaj Institutul de Prospectivă Marjukka Parkkinen, Osmo Kuusi University of Turku 2019 Directorate-General for Research and Innovation EN Acknowledgements Our special thanks go to the foresight team of DG RTD, Nikolaos Kastrinos and Nathalie Vercruysse. They organized the workshops in Brussels, contributed to reports and workshop agendas, and supported the project with a lot of patience until the very end. The following collaborators have greatly contributed to the drafting of technological briefs that are presented in this report: Enache Vlad, Ungureanu Irina, Burinaru Tiberiu, Ilian Virgil, Vieru Vlad, Brabete Valentin, Cojocaru Ovidiu, Chihaia Viorel, Chiriac Alexandru, Tudorie George, Mitarca Monica, Popa Octavian, Ungureanu Viorel, Cosmescu Codruta, Matei Lilia, Sima Maria. We express our sincere appreciation to the distinguished panel of interviewees who shared their expertise and time to discuss Global Value Networks in fall 2017: André Alvarim, Anzori Barkalaja, Martin Bristol, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Zoya Damianova, Tea Danilov, Martin Fatun, Patrick Garda, Anne Guichard, Eric Hauet, Jozef Herčko, Lars Klüver, Sofi Kurki, Ira Van Keulen, Emmanuel Koukios, Alois Krtil, Jan Lesinsky, Tõnis Mets, Katrien Mondt, László Monostori, Michael Nentwich, Juan Carlos Parajó, Melanie Peters, Roberto Poli, Robert Redhammer, Ramojus Reimeris, Mari Rell, Anna Sacio-Szymańska, Róbert Šimončič, Peter De Smedt, Peter Stanovnik, Amos Taylor, Arnold Ubelis, Anders Vestergaard Jensen and Karl Westberg. In addition, we express our gratitude to Jurgita Petrauskienė and Eugenijus Butkus for a discussion on the topic. A special “thank you” is given to the PhD Panel that filled in the survey on Global Value Networks and Radical Innovation Breakthroughs in spring 2018 under severe time pressure: Ernest Aigner, Divya Balakrishnan, Robert Emprechtinger, Laura Hille, Jan Janošec, Anton Jansson, Nikolaos Korakas, Ilya Kuzovkin, Daniel Alsina Leal, Ashish Rauniyar, Adrian Sima, Jaroslaw Skowronski, Amos Taylor, Fabiana Troisi, Irina Ungureanu, Marjolein van der Waal. We are very thankful for the active contributions of the participants in our workshops in Brussels. The speakers of our workshop on Global Value Networks were Barbara Haering, E-Concept AG, Ezio Andreta, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Adrian Curaj, Institul de Prospectiva, Michael Keenan, OECD, Osmo Kuusi, Finland Futures, Andrea Renda, Center for European Policy Studies, Keith Smith, Imperial College London, and the Member of the Committee of the Future of the Parliament of Finland Ville Vähämäki. Active groupwork participants were: Michele Acciaro, Kühne Logistics University, Amanda Allertop Sorensen, Copenhagen EU Office, Antonio Alvarenga, ALVA RC, Carlos Alvarez-Pereira, Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute, Maria Boile, Hellenic Institute for transport, Michael Carus, Nova-Institute for Ecology & Innovation, Tea Danilov, Foresight Center, Dianne Dredge, Aalborg University, Charles Featherstone, Government Office for Science, Siliva Ganzerla, EUROCITIES, Kenisha Garnett, Cranfield University, Christian Grunwald, Z-Punkt Foresight Company, Olli Hietanen, University of Turku, Pierfrancesco Moretti, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Augusta Maria Paci, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche,Aape Pohjavirta, Funzi, Ramojus Reimeris, Research & Higher Education Monitoring and Analysis, Sybille Vandenhove, Bridging for Sustainability SPRL, Barend Van der Meulen, Rathenau Institute, Bosjan 2 Vasle, Governmental Institute of Macroeconomics Analysis, Catherine Whitelegg, German Federal Ministry for Education and Research, Alfred Wuëst, EAWAG, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic S & T as our external guests; and from EU institutions Thomas Arnold, DG RTD, Olivier Chassagne, DG GROW, Nuno Eca Guimaraes, DG JUST, Elisabeta Florescu, JRC, Artur Furtado, DG SANTE, Laszlo Helmle, DG RTD, Ilona Lelonek Husting, DG GROW, Cristina Marolda, DG MOVE, Elena Montani, DG ENV, Eamonn Noonan, Europan Parliament Research Service, Daniele Rechard, Europan Parliament Research Service, David Rios Morentin, DG HOME, Frank Smit, DG RTD, Vincent Viaud, European, Environment Agency. During the final RIBRI workshop, we discussed vividly with Thomas Arnold (RTD), Laure Baillargeon (GROW), Florence Buchholze (AGRI), Olivier Chassagne (GROW), Fabrizio Colimberti (RTD), Phebe Dudek (RTD), Elizabeth Florescu (JRC), Jessica Giraldi (JRC), Georgios Kastrinos (RTD), Katerina Kokesova (RTD), Raphaela Kotsch (RTD), Carla Santos, Harald Stieber (JUST), Eckhard Stormer (JRC), Szekacs Szabolcs (GROW), Luigi Vitiello (GROW) and Jyri Ylkanen (GROW). Thank you for the additional input! 3 FOREWORD Horizon 2020 and Horizon Europe are ambitious EU research and innovation programmes aiming at strengthening science, technology and innovation, fostering European industrial competiveness, and helping to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. These ambitions will require a step-change in breakthrough innovation in Europe. The proposal for the European Innovation Council is at the heart of our ambitions for breakthrough innovations. But it is not alone. Breakthrough innovations are needed to boost the quality of our science as well as to address the many challenges faced by people today, individually as well as collectively. Our Horizon Scanning for Radical Innovation Breakthroughs is part of the preparation for Horizon Europe’s implementation. A massive automated survey of recent scientific and technical literature filtered through panels of experts has been combined with reviews of important recent foresight projects worldwide. The results have been screened for their potential impact on future global value creation, and assessed in terms of current maturity, long-term diffusion potential and relative strength of the EU in research and innovation. This report “100 radical innovation breakthroughs for the future” captures the most potentially impactful results. It provides a strategic resource to all those concerned with decisions on science, technology and innovation. For example, in EU research and innovation policy planning we need to understand the potential of breakthroughs as enablers or barriers to sustainability transitions. Such transitions involve interactions and potential synergies between different policies of the Union. The collection of radical innovation breakthroughs can create common references between different policies and facilitate interactions. With the publication of this report, we hope to also contribute to national and regional strategies, be they on research and innovation priorities or on smart specialization. To improve the lives of people, our reflection about the future should be inspired by the goals of sustainability in order to stretch the boundaries of what is feasible in function of what is desirable for people. Radical innovation breakthroughs are aspirational and inspirational. Scanning the horizon to identify them is a growing part of policy intelligence. Jean-Eric PAQUET Director General for Research and Innovation European Commission 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 10 1 Introduction 18 2 Overview methodology 19 3 How to read the report 20 4 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs (RIBs) in technology 21 4.1 Group 1. Artificial Intelligence and Robots 27 4.2 Group 2. Human-Machine Interaction & Biomimetics 79 4.3 Group 3. Electronics & Computing 97 4.4 Group 4. Biohybrids 125 4.5 Group 5. Biomedicine 141 4.6 Group 6. Printing & Materials 173 4.7 Group 7. Breaking Ressource Boundaries 199 4.8 Group 8. Energy 223 5 Radical Social Innovation Breakthroughs