Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine June 13-23, 2019 *A corrected version of this poll was uploaded to iri.org on July 10, 2019 to address minor inaccuracies contained in the version published on July 9, 2019. Methodology • The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research. • The survey was conducted throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied Crimea and certain areas of Donbas) on June 13-23, 2019 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes • •The sample consisted of 2,400 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by gender, age, region, and settlement size. The distribution of population by regions and settlements is based on statistical data of the Central Election Commission from the 2019 presidential elections, and the distribution of population by age and gender is based on data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine from January 1, 2018. • A multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and “last birthday” methods for respondent selection. • Stage One: the territory of Ukraine was split into 25 administrative regions (24 regions and Kyiv). The survey was conducted throughout all regions of Ukraine, except for the occupied Crimea and certain areas of the Donbas. • Stage Two: the territory of each region was split into village and city units. Settlements were split into types by the number of residents: • Cities with population over 1 million • Cities with population 500,000-999,000 • Cities with population 100,000-499,000 • Cities with population 50,000-99,000 • Cities with population up to 50,000 • Urban villages • Villages • Cities and villages were selected using the PPS method (probability proportional to size). The number of selected cities/villages in each of the regions is proportional to the share of population living in cities/villages of a certain type in each region. • Stage Three: households were selected using random route, respondents - “last birthday” rule. • The margin of error does not exceed 2.0 percent for the full sample. • The average response rate was 61.8 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was financed by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). • Considering the distribution of political party preferences, only the top six parties are represented. The number of the respondents who voted for other parties is not sufficient for reliable analysis. 2 Geographical Key *Due to the Russian occupation of Crimea and ongoing conflict in the East of Ukraine, citizens of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts controlled by the separatists did not participate in the survey. 3 Frequently Cited Disaggregates Disaggregate Disaggregation Category Base Region West n=645 Center n=838 South n=590 East n=329 Age 18-35 n=725 36-50 n=657 51+ n=1,081 Political Party Preference* Sluha Narodu n=807 Oppositional Platform n=203 Holos n=128 European Solidarity n=110 Batkivschyna n=104 Syla y Chest n=58 Would not vote n=175 Undecided n=476 Choice in Presidential Election Volodymyr Zelenskyy n=1,465 Petro Poroshenko n=370 *Political Party Preference is derived from the question: “If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the election, which political party would you vote for?” *Only the six parties receiving the largest shares of intended votes are displayed throughout disaggregates in this presentation--no other party received a sufficiently large share of respondents to conduct reliable analysis. 4 National Outlook Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? 80% 76% 72% 71% 72% 71% 70% 72% 71% 71% 70% 71% 69% 68% 70% 68% 67% 70% 66% 64% 60% 48% 51% 50% 49% 39% 40% 34% 29% 28% 30% 34% 20% 18% 18% 27% 17% 17% 17% 16% 20% 16% 16% 15% 15% 13% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 16% 23% 20% 17% 18% 16% 15% 15% 14% 10% 14% 15% 15% 13% 13% 14% 14% 15% 14% 13% 13% 11% 11% 0% Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer/No answer 6 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Region Political Party Preference West 37% 35% 28% Sluha Narodu 50% 28% 23% Center 34% 36% 30% Holos 39% 38% 24% South 33% 41% 26% European Solidarity 38% 49% 13% East 32% 46% 22% Batkivshchyna 31% 49% 20% Syla y Chest 30% 49% 20% 18-35 42% 35% 23% Opposition Platform 15% 65% 20% 36-50 34% 37% 29% Would not vote 24% 42% 34% 51+ 29% 42% 28% Undecided 25% 36% 39% 7 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Ukraine changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer June 2019 1% 10% 39% 27% 18% 5% May 2019 2% 10% 27% 27% 29% 5% September 2018 <1% 7% 23% 35% 30% 4% June 2018 <1% 8% 20% 30% 37% 5% March 2018 <1% 8% 20% 33% 36% 2% December 2017 1% 5% 24% 31% 35% 4% September 2017 <1% 5% 25% 35% 31% 3% June 2017 1% 6% 21% 33% 35% 3% April 2017 <1% 3% 20% 36% 37% 4% September 2016 2% 20% 34% 40% 3% June 2016 2% 15% 33% 45% 4% February 2016 1% 10% 34% 54% 2% November 2015 2% 14% 37% 44% 3% September 2015 1% 2% 14% 31% 51% 1% July 2015 2% 8% 28% 60% 2% September 2014 1% 11% 29% 57% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Ukraine changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Region Political Party Preference West 1% 14% 40% 31% 8% 6% European Solidarity 4% 32% 35% 15% 7% 7% Center 1% 9% 39% 24% 21% 6% Holos 2% 19% 41% 19% 15% 4% East 9% 32% 28% 28% 3% Sluha Narodu 1% 8% 41% 28% 18% 3% 9% South 1% 7% 44% 24% 20% 5% Syla y Chest 44% 34% 12% 2% Batkivshchyna 8% 39% 32% 17% 5% 18-35 2% 13% 43% 24% 11% 7% Opposition Platform 4% 25% 31% 39% 1% 36-50 9% 39% 27% 20% 5% Does not vote 5% 41% 24% 22% 8% 51+ 8% 37% 28% 22% 5% Undecided 8% 38% 29% 13% 11% 9 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation of your household changed? June 2019 1% 11% 45% 26% 15% 2% May 2019 1% 9% 39% 27% 22% 1% December 2018 1% 5% 33% 34% 23% 3% September 2018 1% 8% 29% 33% 28% 2% June 2018 1% 9% 29% 27% 32% 2% March 2018 <1% 10% 31% 31% 27% 1% December 2017 <1%6% 26% 31% 33% 2% September 2017 <1%5% 27% 32% 34% 2% June 2017 <1% 6% 26% 31% 34% 2% April 2017 3% 23% 34% 37% 2% September 2016 2% 23% 37% 36% 2% June 2016 2% 18% 38% 40% 2% February 2016 1% 15% 36% 47% 1% November 2015 2% 20% 36% 40% 2% September 2015 1% 2% 18% 34% 45% 1% July 2015 1% 14% 29% 55% 1% September 2014 2% 19% 37% 40% 2% April 2014 1% 4% 37% 34% 22% 3% March 2014 3% 46% 29% 18% 3% February 2014 1% 8% 44% 31% 14% 2% September 2013 1% 9% 41% 30% 17% 2% May 2013 1% 8% 46% 30% 14% 1% September 2012 1% 14% 37% 27% 15% 5% May 2012 9% 45% 30% 13% 3% March 2012 1% 6% 39% 34% 18% 3% November 2011 1% 6% 37% 36% 18% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer 10 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation of your household changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Region Political Party Preference 13% 8% West 2% 13% 48% 28% 6% 3% European Solidarity 2% 31% 44% 2% Holos 3% 13% 55% 23% 5% Center 1% 11% 47% 25% 16% 1% East 1% 11% 40% 24% 24% 1% Sluha Narodu 1% 11% 45% 25% 16% 1% 11% South 1% 10% 44% 25% 19% 1% Syla y Chest 44% 35% 8% 2% Batkivshchyna 6% 47% 35% 11% 1% Opposition Platform <1%4%32% 30% 33% 18-35 3% 18% 50% 20% 7% 1% Does not vote 2% 11% 41% 29% 14% 4% 36-50 1% 9% 46% 27% 16% 2% Undecided 1% 9% 48% 26% 12% 3% 51+ 7% 42% 28% 21% 1% 11 In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine to change? Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Difficult to answer/No answer June 2019 5% 43% 24% 9% 3% 16% 4% 39% 23% 8% 4% 22% September 2018 1% 13% 24% 23% 17% 21% 1% 11% 24% 20% 23% 20% March 2018 1% 15% 30% 23% 17% 13% 1% 10% 27% 26% 16% 20% September 2017 2% 13% 27% 25% 16% 17% 1% 11% 26% 20% 23% 19% April 2017 9% 28% 25% 21% 16% 8% 24% 27% 27% 14% June 2016 1% 8% 21% 25% 27% 19% 1% 6% 21% 23% 31% 18% November 2015 1% 7% 21% 32% 23% 16% 2% 11% 25% 23% 27% 12% July 2015 1% 9% 19% 24% 27% 20% 1% 10% 14% 23% 35% 17% April 2014 1% 10% 13% 26% 43% 8% 1% 12% 16% 26% 35% 11% February 2014 1% 9% 20% 31% 28% 12% 2% 12% 27% 29% 17% 13% May 2013 1% 8% 38% 29% 12% 12% 2% 17% 31% 24% 11% 16% May 2012 1% 13% 35% 26% 11% 14% 1% 8% 32% 32% 15% 12% November 2011 1% 7% 30% 32% 17% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 12 Election Attitudes For each of the following sets of statements, which is more important to you when voting in the parliamentary elections? 10% Party’s ability to bring changes for the country Party’s ability to ensure stability 32% Difficult to answer/No answer 58% 14 For each of the following sets of statements, which is more important to you when voting in the parliamentary elections? Party’s ability to bring changes for the country Party’s ability to ensure stability Difficult to answer/No answer Age, Region Political Party Preference Center 61% 27% 12% Sluha Narodu 67% 26% 7% West 61% 29% 11% Holos 65% 31% 4% South 57% 36% 6% Syla y Chest 55% 28% 17% East 49% 42% 9% Opposition Platform 48%