LOCATING RUSSIA IN THE EMERGING GEOPOLITICS OF CENTRAL ASIA: MAPPING INDIA’S OPTIONS Thesis submitted to the Central University of Punjab For the award of Doctor of Philosophy In South and Central Asian Studies BY Mudasir Mubarik Supervisor Dr. Bawa Singh Centre for South and Central Asian Studies School of Global Relations Central University of Punjab, Bathinda August, 2019 i CERTIFICATE I declare that the thesis entitled, “Locating Russia in the Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia: Mapping India’s Options” has been prepared by me under the guidance of Dr. Bawa Singh, Assistant Professor, Central for South and Central Asian Studies, School of Global Relations, Central University of Punjab. No part of this thesis has formed the basis for the award of any degree or fellowship previously. Name and signature of candidate Centre for South and Central Asia, School of Global Relations, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda ‐ 151001. Date: ii CERTIFICATE I certify that Mudasir Mubarik has prepared his thesis entitled, “Locating Russia in the Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia: Mapping India’s Options”, for the award of Ph.D. degree of the Central University of Punjab, under my guidance. He has carried out this work at the Centre for South and Central Asian Studies, School of Global Relations, Central University of Punjab. Dr. Bawa Singh Centre for South and Central Asian Studies School of Global Relations Central University of Punjab, Bathinda‐151001. Date: iii ABSTRACT Locating Russia in the Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia: Mapping India’s Options Name of student: Mudasir Mubarik Registration number: CUP/MPhil-Ph.D/SGR/SCA/2011-12/05 Degree for which submitted: Doctor of Philosophy Name of Supervisor: Dr. Bawa Singh Name of Centre: Centre for South and Central Asian Studies Name of School: School of Global Relations Russia’s relationship with the Central Asian region has been established since the recorded history. The former had colonized the region and established its exclusive control for more than 200 years. India on the other hand, had been sharing long historical and civilizational bonds with the region as it has been falling on the old Silk Route. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union (1991) and the subsequent emergence of Central Asian countries as sovereign states led to a saga of drastic changes in the geopolitical milieu of the region. Russia had lost its superpower status, as it had been entrapped in political, economic and security conundrum. Consequently, Russia had altogether ignored the CARs and drifted towards the West and supranational institutions to restore its state machinery. Thus, the former had adopted a passive approach towards the latter in response to the Euro-Atlantic tilt that had drastically impacted the bilateral and regional engagements. On the other hand, India’s engagements with Russia and the Central Asia had undergone a paradigmatic shift. In this milieu, power vacuum was created in Eurasia that led to New Great Game in the region, which again obligated both Russia and India to engage with the Central Asian region given their multifaceted interests at stake. Given the geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic significance of the Central Asia as well as the power vacuum left by the Soviet retreat, enticed the major powers and regional actors towards this region. Indeed, the interests of the US, China, Turkey, Iran, India, and Pakistan, have been counterpoising with each other to enhance their respective influence. The battle for gaining their multifaceted interests has turned the region into a strategic fulcrum, wherein China has been increasingly strengthening its geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic leverages and thereby, challenging the US, Russia and India in the region. Unlike China, the US has been also consistently trying to restrict the multifaceted interests of Russia and rising influence of China. On the other hand, Russia has been considering the region as its backyard and an area of privileged interests. Furthermore, the regional countries like Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan have been playing their cards to enhance their respective footprints in the Central Asian region. To protect and promote their respective multifaceted interests, the regional actors have also been taking sides with the major stakeholders. In the changing geopolitical dynamics, the time-tested friends India and Russia, have realized their reciprocal interests to rejuvenate their ties both at bilateral and at regional levels. For India-Russia relationship, the regional developments present the compatibility of mutual interests, particularly in Central Asia. Simultaneously, Indian strategic maneuvering has been taken by other way around by Russia. It creates a iv peculiar situation between India and Russia in the Central Asia. Moreover, the growing strategic proximity between Russia and China and in recent times with Pakistan has been poising a significant challenge for India in the region. In this background, the present study, therefore, examines changing relationship between Russia and CARs in the post-Cold War era. It also evaluates the multifaceted interests of the US, China, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan and India in the region and how Russia has been reciprocating their strategic maneuvers has also been examined. Moreover, given Russia’s leading geostrategic leverage in the CARs, it becomes more interesting to see, how India- Russia relationship has been going in general and in context of Central Asia in particular. Furthermore, the study examines about how Russia acts as a bridge between India and Central Asia. At last, it is difficult to say with certainty that either it is only lack of political willingness or geopolitics of the region which is responsible for the low level of engagements amongst Russia, Central Asia and India. At this juncture, it is argued that lack of regional connectivity is the major challenge of the low level of engagements. Moreover, the existing lack of political will as well as the rising geopolitics of the region could be held responsible for the same. In order to come out of this quagmire, the three regions needed to come together on one platform geopolitically, geo-economically and geo-strategically. The three might potentially turn the regional geopolitical conundrum in their favor, which may become one of the most gigantic economic zones by exploiting the untapped sea of opportunities. In this way, a new world order would be created that may be more suitable for promoting regional peace, harmony and development which has been a prerequisite for safeguarding their multifaceted geostrategic interest in the region. Key Words: Russia, Central Asia, New Great Game in Central Asia, Russia’s Rebalancing Reciprocations, India’s Challenges and Options. (Name and signature of student) (Name and signature of supervisor) v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to all, those who supported and helped me through this thesis and made it very precious memorable experience. First of all, it is a pleasure for me to thank Almighty Allah, for making it possible. I would like to utilize this platform to thank my parents. It is due to their support that I was able to withstand the difficulties faced during the research period. I pay my deep gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Bawa Singh, Assistant Professor and officiating (HOD), Centre for South and Central Asian Studies, School of Global Relations, Central University of Punjab, who helped me fine tune this research. Without his academic support, constant guidance and inspiration this study “locating Russia in the Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia: Mapping India’s Options” would not have seen the light of the day. I am immensely gratified to Dr. Nishtha Kaushiki, Dr. Rajinder Kumar, and Dr. Naresh Singla who have assisted me in successful completion of this thesis. My most sincere thanks to the Vice Chancellor, Prof. R.K Kohli, Dean Academic Affair, Prof. P. Rama Rao and Prof. R. Wusirika. It’s my pleasure to acknowledge Library staff Dr. Bhupinder Singh Brar and staff members of Computer Centre and Administrative Block who provided necessary help during my work. I also appreciate the efforts of my elder sisters Mufeeda Mubarik and Rumeesa Mubarik, and younger brother Zahid Mubarik who encouraged me to complete this piece of work. I would also like to express my gratitude to my friends especially to Abdul Rouf Bhat, Shahbaz, Hilal, Parvaiz, Sandeep, Amandeep and Mudassir Bashir for their kind cooperation and encouragement in the completion of this thesis. Mudasir Mubarik vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Srl Content Page No. No. 1 Title I 2 Certificate II 3 Declaration III 4 Abstract IV 5 Acknowledgment V 6 Table of Contents VI 7 List of Tables VII 8 List of Figures VIII 9 List of Abbreviations IX 10 Chapter- One 1-15 Introduction 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Theoretical Conceptualization 2-3 1.3 Significance of Central Asian Region 3-4 1.4 The Changing Dynamics of Russia-Central Asia Relationship 4-5 1.5. Geopolitics in Central Asia: Russia’s Reciprocations 5-6 1.6. India’s Interests in Central Asia 7-8 1.7. India-Russia Convergences and Divergences in Central Asia 8-10 1.8. India’s Foreign Policy Towards Central Asia: Challenges and 10-11 Options 1.9 Research Objectives 11-12 1.10 Research Questions 12 1.11 Research Methodology 12-13 1.12. Significance of the Study 13-14 1.13 Organization of the Chapters 14-15 11 Chapter- Two 16-32 Review of literature 2.1-2.4 Literature Review 16-31 2.5 Knowledge Gap 32 vii 12 Chapter- Three 33-57 Profiling Central Asian Republics (CARs): Conceptualizing in Geopolitical Settings 3.1 Introduction 33 3.2 The Collapse of the Soviet Union: Emergence of the Central Asian 33-37 Republics (CARs) 3.3. Defining Central Asian Republics (CARs) 38-39 3.4. Profile of Central Asia: An Overview 40-41 3.5 CARs in the Barbs: Sea Saw Polity Model 41-44 3.6 The Economies of the CARs 44-46 3.7 Socio-Cultural Composition of Central Asia 47-48 3.8.