THE DAHIYEH DOCTRINE: THE CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH STATES CAN ESTABLISH ASYMMETRIC DETERRENCE A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By Rafael D. Frankel, M.S. Washington, DC July 3, 2013 Copyright 2013 by Rafael D. Frankel All Rights Reserved ii THE DAHIYEH DOCTRINE: THE CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH STATES CAN ESTABLISH ASYMMETRIC DETERRENCE Rafael D. Frankel, M.S. Thesis Advisor: Daniel L. Byman, Ph.D. ABSTRACT For the last decade, a growing body of research has sough to understand how classical deterrence methods could be adapted by states to establish asymmetric deterrence against non-state militant groups. Various strategies were suggested, but the research undertaken to date focused nearly exclusively on the actions of the defending state. This research project is the first formal effort to discover under what conditions deterrence against such groups can be established by focusing on important attributes of the non-state groups themselves. The result is the development of the Asymmetric Deterrence Matrix (ADM), which in eight temporally-bound case studies involving Hamas and Hezbollah successfully predicts the level of deterrence Israel should have been able to achieve against those groups at given periods of time. This research demonstrates that there are four main causal factors related to a non-state group’s characteristics that constrain and encourage the success of asymmetric deterrence strategies by states: elements of statehood (territorial control, political authority, and responsibility for a dependent population), organizational structure, ideology, and inter- factional rivalries. A fifth variable, external support, is strongly correlated but complex. In addition to breaking new theoretical ground, the ADM also leads to highly relevant policy recommendations regarding how states can devise tailor-made asymmetric deterrence strategies that correlate to the type of non-state militant group they are defending against. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Victory most definitely has a thousand fathers (and mothers). The writing of this dissertation is the culmination not only of six years of combined work at Georgetown (M.S.F.S. and Ph.D.), but really, a lifetime of professional and academic experience. At each point along the journey, amazing people lent me a hand in furthering my personal, academic, and professional development. Someone always believed in me; many times multiple people. And that made all the difference. That said, I will focus here on those without whose help this particular project would not have come to fruition. First and foremost, I must thank my family for the unparalleled love and support they gave me my entire life. Mom, Dad, Ari, and all the family in Chicago and beyond provided me with a rock solid base and the security to take risks knowing that if I ever fell flat on my face, I would not suffer defeat alone. Hagar has brought a light to my life that I always hoped I would find. Finally being able to bask in its glow has show me what endless possibilities the future holds. I am also lucky to have extraordinary friends, old and new, in the four corners of the globe. For the long months and years that I was away from home, they were, in many ways, my family. In terms of materially supporting this project, I offer my unending gratefulness to the Rumsfeld Foundation. Without its extraordinarily generous financial support over my four years in the Ph.D program, I could never have embarked upon nor completed this important project. Thanks also to the Schusterman Foundation, whose grant in my final iv year was essential in pushing me over the finish line. In both cases, as with M.S.F.S., Ambassador Michael Oren was most helpful in securing funding. Without his letters of recommendation, and also his and Sally’s friendship and mentorship, I have no idea where I would be today. The State of Israel is quite lucky to have a man of such exceptional talent and charter as its representative in Washington. Dr. Howard Federoff also has my deep gratitude for the “fellowship plus” that he hired me for which lasted two-and-a-half years. His support funded the first half of my research in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, immeasurably aiding my work. Many thanks are also due to Prof. Robert Lieber, who took over as my sponsor once Michael assumed his post in the Israeli embassy. His letters of recommendation, his support in the Government Department, and his mentorship and straight talk were essential to me and are most appreciated. I could scarcely imagine any Ph.D. candidate having a better dissertation committee than the three all-stars who graciously gave me their time for the last two years. Prof. Dan Byman was everything a committee chair should be and a great deal more. Dan was always accessible, a pleasure to work with, consistently responsive, and full of exceptional advice on every possible topic that I encountered during the course of my research. Dan is also a brilliant editor and subject matter expert and his comments made my work immeasurably better and more nuanced. Finally, Dan is a down-to-earth guy, whose lack of pretention, pleasant manner, and genuine kindness distinguish him from so many others in Washington who are not half the scholar that he is. Prof. Paul Pillar, as the expression goes, has forgotten more about the Middle East than most people will ever know in their lifetime. His decades of experience in the region provided me v with numerous insights that I could not have read or gleaned elsewhere. Particularly helpful, and fun, were the debates on Middle East policy that Prof. Pillar would graciously allow me to participate in with him. He consistently challenged my assumptions and opinions in a way that made my work better. Last, but absolutely not least, I could not have imagined putting together a committee that did not include Prof. Kate McNamara. Kate was the first professor at Georgetown that made an impression on me—way back in my first semester of M.S.F.S. She is an exceptional teacher with a rare talent for conveying complex ideas in a manner that makes them eminently digestible. She commands respect both through her extraordinary intellect and the professionalism with which she conducts herself. Most importantly of all, for six years her door was open to me. Kate helped me through issues ranging from IR theory to departmental politics to career choices. She is both a mentor and role model to me and I hope that my work has done justice to the confidence she showed in me through the years. One final word on my committee… Despite being dedicated academics themselves, none of them ever denigrated my desire that this work would have practical applications and they did everything they could to help me achieve the goals I set out for myself, rather than the goals they would have set out for me. For that I am most grateful. The Program for Jewish Civilization at Georgetown was also very supportive of me throughout my years at the university. Prof. Jacques Burlinerblau and Melissa Weinberg Spence gave me first the chance to be Michael’s teaching assistant and then to develop and teach my own class. Both were amazing opportunities I am grateful for and I hope to work with them more in the years to come. A special thanks is due to Bob vi Burkett, who met me as Michael’s TA and took me under his wing. Also with California roots, Bob was a mentor who showed me that marching to the beat of my own drum was doable even in Washington. He is a true friend, as is Jessica Raper who also helped me out with all things Georgetown for the last few years. We had a lot of fun working together and it sure would be nice to do that again in the future. Prof. Mark Habeeb, though not on my committee, was also a great help to this project. He had many good insights both in terms of methodology and content. Rounding out the folks at Georgetown, immeasurable thanks are due to Rafi Cohen, Gabe Scheinmann, and Rebecca Davis-Gibbons. Making it through the Ph.D. coursework and comprehensive exams would have been impossible without the teamwork we developed and their steadfast friendship. Every Ph.D. student needs a cohort like I had to help him/her through. Thanks also to Prof. Matt Kroenig who, despite not being on my committee, took the time to talk to me about his own research that greatly informed mine. Finally, a shout out to the absolutely awesome M.S.F.S. class of 2009. How is it possible that 100 people could be so smart and so cool at the same time? In regards to the research, thanks to authors and journalists Nick Blanford, Stephen Farrell, and Thanassis Cambanis for sitting down with me for interviews. Their insights were most helpful and each also wrote a fantastic book. Thanks very much to Mati Gil, Efrat Minivitzki-Thein, and two friends in the West Bank and Gaza whom I will not mention by name in order to protect them. They were extremely helpful in arranging interviews for me. Thanks also to Carmel Pomerantz for her tutorial in vii international humanitarian law. A final debt of gratitude is owed to Gidi Grinstein, Eran Shayshon, and the Re’ut Research Institute in Tel Aviv. They’ve provided me with new and important insights and let me bounce ideas off of them since 2006, and have very much contributed to these theories and methods of research.