POLICY BRIEF 31 / 2020 The Future of U.S.–Russia Relations Oleg Shakirov RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL BOARD OF TRUSTEES PRESIDIUM Sergey Lavrov – Chairman Mikhail Margelov Petr Aven of the Board of Trustees Yury Osipov Igor Ivanov – President Herman Gref Sergey Prikhodko Andrey Kortunov – Director General Aleksandr Dzasokhov Anatoly Torkunov Fyodor Lukyanov Leonid Drachevsky Andrey Fursenko Igor Morgulov Aleksandr Dynkin Aleksandr Shokhin Dmitry Peskov Mikhail Komissar Igor Yurgens Konstantin Kosachev Editors: Ivan Timofeev, Ph.D. in Political Science Natalia Viakhireva, Ph.D. in Political Science Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) is a membership-based non-profit Russian organization. RIAC’s activities are aimed at strengthening peace, friendship and solidarity between peoples, preventing international conflicts and promoting crisis resolution. 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Russian International Affairs Council The Future of U.S.–Russia Relations Introduction term was even formalized in the 2017 National Security Strategy: “[A]fter being dismissed as a Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the United phenomenon of an earlier century, great power States and Russia have been exchanging humani- competition returned […] In short, they [Rus- tarian aid shipments, demonstrating the readiness sia and China] are contesting our geopolitical of the two countries to temporarily put their advantages and trying to change the interna- political differences aside and come to the other’s tional order in their favor.”1 rescue. That being said, these episodes have had little effect on bilateral relations, which have been While the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia going through trying times in recent years. The can be considered a forerunner to this approach, crisis of confidence between the two countries it was not until Trump came into power that great is further aggravated by a number of problems power competition was turned into an official that have built up over the past several years. strategy. This was most clearly stated in the 2018 This report attempts to present a picture of how National Security Strategy: “Inter-state strategic bilateral relations between Russia and the United competition, not terrorism, is now the primary States may develop over the next ten years. The concern in U.S. national security.”2 first section describes the context of these bilateral Russia is at the centre of the United States’ relations, specifically, how the general approaches competition strategy: according to the official of the two countries to foreign policy, as well as to rhetoric, the United States coordinates its actions certain domestic issues, will affect their interaction in response to those of Russia and China. Wash- as a whole. The second section discusses specific ington will seek to deter its rivals by relying areas of interaction, primarily those related to on force. The increased military budget under international security, in greater detail. Trump, as well as the reluctance of the current administration to be tied to any external restric- The context of bilateral tions, increases the risks for bilateral arms control relations between the United States and Russia. Washing- In the first two subsections, we will examine two ton is also preparing for competition in new areas ideas that play a prominent role in the foreign pol- of the confrontation, namely space (through the icies of the United States and Russia, respectively. creation of the United States Space Command), These are the “great power competition” in the the electromagnetic spectrum (through the United States and the “multipolar world” in Russia. development of a special strategy) and cyber- While these ideas, which are heavily featured in space. Speaking of cyberspace, the relevant strategic documents have already been adop- the official discourse of the two countries, overlap 3 somewhat, they are not entirely commensurate. ted. And Russia being singled out as a threat prompted local legislators to draw up a draft bill Studying them will allow us to see how they could 4 affect relations between the two countries in the on the Russian Internet. future. The last subsection is devoted to the issue At the global level, we are talking about the of external interference in domestic affairs in the United States reconfiguring its military and polit- context of U.S.–Russia relations. ical capabilities, but this is not a quick process. U.S. troops will not be pulled out of Afghanistan GREAT POWER COMPETITION until the second quarter of 2021. At the same Great power competition has become a core time, despite Trump’s plans to exit the Middle idea of the Donald Trump administration. The East, the number of troops in the region has ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Oleg Shakirov, Consultant at PIR Center, Senior Expert at the Center for Advanced Governance, RIAC Expert 1 National Security Strategy of the United States of America // The White House. 12.2017. URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf 2 Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United States of America // Department of Defense. 08.10.2018. URL: https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf 3 National Cyber Strategy of the United States of America // The White House. 09.2018. URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/National-Cyber-Strategy.pdf 4 Kalyukov E. State Duma Adopts Law on Sovereign Internet // RBC. 16.04.2019. URL: https://www.rbc.ru/society/16/04/2019/5cb5926d9a79470c9428e7d1 3 Oleg Shakirov The Future of U.S.–Russia Relations increased over the past year to counter another different interpretations of what multipolarity rival, namely, Iran.5 actually is. The longest running element of this strategy is An important starting point for the multipo- likely to be the confrontation with Beijing. Trade lar world is to pit it against the unipolar model and tech wars with China have marked Trump’s led by the United States and, by extension, the presidency from the very outset. By the fourth West. Sergey Lavrov summed up the idea rather year of his term in office, U.S. grievances towards laconically at the Paris Peace Forum in 2019: “[R] China had expanded to include accusations egardless of the terminology you use, be it a regarding the coronavirus infection. polycentric world, a multipolar world or a multi- Harsh policies towards China have become lateral world, the essence is the same. No one, no the norm in Washington. Future presidents single country, no group of countries, like what and other politicians will use it as a blueprint, we call the ‘historical West,’ can rule the world in rather than proceeding from an ideal vision of this situation alone.”6 At the same time, the Euro- what U.S.–China cooperation could be. In the pean Union can be seen as a separate pole.7 event that the competition between China Russian diplomats emphasize that a multipolar and the United States intensifies, economic ties world is not a reality of today, but rather a model may weaken and attempts to enact a complete that is gradually unfolding, an objective process decoupling, which is mentioned with increasing that will take time.8 In addition, multipolarity is regularity, may be made. understood not so much in the traditional terms The question of how these developments will of the balance of powers as it is in the nature of affect U.S.–Russia relations remains open: Will relations between countries. In an article on the Russia still be seen in the same light as China ten international relations system of the future, Lav- years from now? Or will the United States adopt rov noted: “It is our common interest to ensure a more differentiated approach to the country? that multipolarity is not based on a stark bal- ance of power like it was at the earlier stages of MULTIPOLAR WORLD human history (for example, in the 19th and the th As far as Russia is concerned, the concept of a first half of the 20 century), but rather bears a multipolar world encapsulates its perception of just, democratic and unifying nature, takes into the international environment or, perhaps more account the approaches and concerns of all accurately, what should be expected from it. those taking part in the international relations This is by no means a new concept, having first without an exception, and ensures a stable and 9 entered the country’s foreign policy lexicon back secure future.” in the mid-1990s thanks to then Minister of For- At the level of rhetoric, this idealized view of the eign Affairs Yevgeny Primakov. The concept is desired world order is placed in stark contrast still used today to explain international issues. to the negative aspects of politics in the United Unlike the U.S. strategy of competition among States and the West. For example, this forms the great powers, the concept of multipolarity has basis of the criticisms that Russian diplomats not been written into the country’s strategic level at the idea of “rule-based order,” which is documents, for example, the 2015 National seen as an arbitrary construct created by a nar- Security Strategy of the Russian Federation or row group of countries (the West) to serve their the 2016 Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian own interests.