A Structured Approach to Transformation Modelling of Natural Hazards by Wayne Hart: BE (Hons), MBA Thesis submitted to the University of Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia In fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Applied Economics 9 May 2019 i ANZSRC Field of Research (FOR) Code The Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classification (ANZSRC) is jointly produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Statistics New Zealand. The Fields of Research (FOR) code for this project is: Division 14 Economics Group 1402 Applied Economics Field 140205 Environment and Resource Economics Reference for this work Hart, W. (2019) A structured approach to transformation modelling of natural hazards, Doctoral Thesis, University of Canberra Library, University of Canberra, Australia, 9 May 2019, pp 1-339 ii Statement of Originality Except where clearly acknowledged in footnotes, quotations and the bibliography, I certify that I am the sole author of this thesis. I further certify that to the best of my knowledge the thesis contains no material previously published or written by another person, nor has been the basis of an award of any other degree or diploma except where due reference is made in the text of the thesis. The thesis complies with University requirements for a thesis as set out in the Examination of Higher Degree by Research Theses Policy. Signature of Candidate Signature of Chair of Supervisory Panel Date 20/8/2018 Statement of Copyright in Relation to this Thesis Under Section 35 of the Copyright Act of 1968, the author of this thesis is the owner of any copyright subsisting in the work, even though it is unpublished. Under section 31(I)(a)(i), copyright includes the exclusive right to 'reproduce the work in a material form'. This copyright is infringed by a person who, not being the owner of the copyright, reproduces or authorises the reproduction of the work, or of more than a reasonable part of the work, in a material form, unless the reproduction is a 'fair dealing with the work 'for the purpose of research or study' as further defined in S.40 and S.41 of the Act. This thesis must therefore be copied or used only under the normal conditions of scholarly fair dealing for the purposes of research, criticism or review, as outlined in the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. In particular, no results or conclusions should be extracted from it, nor should it be copied or closely paraphrased in whole or in part without the written consent of the author. Proper written acknowledgement should be made for any assistance obtained from this thesis. Copies of the thesis may be made by a library on behalf of another person provided the officer in charge of the library is satisfied that the copy is being made for the purposes of research or study. iii iv Acknowledgements I am pleased to acknowledge the support of many people who have made the completion of this work possible. It is useful to note that this project began with a very broad concept and a long period of exploration of the effectiveness of quantitative risk analysis systems in the natural environment, what weaknesses there were, what solutions might be possible, and how the solutions might be further improved. This involved countless conversations with people, groups and communities too numerous to individually acknowledge. Nevertheless, I thank them all. Primarily I would like to acknowledge the knowledge and guidance of my University of Canberra supervisory team led by Professor Rob Tanton and supported by Professor Ken McQueen, and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis. Our journey in guiding an innovative, multi-disciplinary thesis through a labyrinth of mixed research and disciplinary approaches was challenging, but with perseverance and Rob’s continuing support, I am well pleased with the result. I am also indebted to Professor Jason Ingham and Mr Kevin Walsh from the University of Auckland for providing guidance on spatial interpretation of the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence built environment data. I very much valued my discussions with Professor Steven Cox of the Australian National University, Mr Kevin McCue of Canberra, and Mr Ken Sharp of Cooma on Snowy Mountains’ and Newcastle seismicity. Many thanks are due to Geoscience Australia and the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd (GNS Science) in New Zealand for their exceptional support of seismic studies generally and most especially though their extensive and highly accessible online databases of seismic event data that so strongly encourages and supports seismic research. I would also like to thank the many support and academic staff throughout the University of Canberra who understand the needs and challenges of the Higher Degree by Research (HDR) journey and consistently go out of their way to assist the many individual PhD candidates along the way. Finally, I acknowledge the long-standing support of my wife Glynis for everything else. v Prologue: Three new Axioms of Real Things and Models This thesis is about real things (e.g.: natural hazards and disasters), and how they are often initially modelled only with representation models of the collected data (e.g.: with images, data, graphs and narratives). The thesis shows how, when the original model is transformed into new forms (e.g. formulas, dimensionless ratios, and metaphors), new understandings are revealed about its behaviour (e.g. reservoir induced seismicity, seismic energy attenuation, and montane people behaviours). This thesis will present new approaches to real things, models, representation and transformation, beginning with three new axioms describing models. 1: Axiom of Real Things All real things are unique Comment: real things are unique manifestations of matter, energy and information. They may include, for example: people, mountains, electrical systems, books, discoveries, earthquakes, symphonies, planets and stars, measurements, fires, floods and footballs. 2: Axiom of Representation Models Models represent real things Comment 1: models represent the appearance, behaviour, or properties of real things Comment 2: we represent real things with models of what is seen and measured e.g. a picture or sculpture, a table of numbers and words, a narrative of words, a chemical or mathematical formula, a data stream, or a flow chart. 3: Axiom of Transformation Models Models may be transformed into other models Comment 1: Transformation means changing the form of a representation model to enhance the understanding of the unique real thing or the model of the real thing. Comment 2: Initial models of real things are typically built from raw collected data that only give a partial understanding of the thing. Comment 3: Most models, when transformed into another model form give an enhanced view of the real thing or the model that improves its usefulness for storing information about the real thing, or forecasting its future behaviours. vi A Structured Approach to Transformation Modelling of Natural Hazards Abstract This thesis will inform effective decision making in a natural disaster environment by combining positivist research data fully describing past disaster events, constructed into models that may assist in forecasting outcomes of future disaster events. Transformation Modelling Typically, a vast amount of situational data from a particular natural disaster is collected and stored during the time band of the event. It is collected by participants such as emergency responders, government agencies and researchers. The consequences of most natural disasters are the outputs arising from multiple inputs to a natural and anthropological system that are related through complex relationships. In this study these inputs, outputs and relationships are used to create transformation models. This study provides an original approach to physical data and information management, building initial representation models, and creating transformation models to assist decision making, The thesis introduces a new dimensionless parameter that models relative human behaviour during pre-event and event time bands when potentially; behavioural responses are shown to affect the forecast outcomes based on measured situational data. The internationally standardised tool for managing a risk or hazard is a two dimensional matrix of historical event likelihood, and the magnitude of consequences. Extending the traditional two-dimensional matrix to a three-dimensional matrix that includes a participant behavioural parameter is shown to inform more informative forecasting of disaster outcomes. The Study The study involves a research programme of one foundation study and three situational studies in montane environments that introduce new model approaches to risk management. The essential element of building this model is the use of a well posed, problem building principles to enable the creation of a structurally robust and solvable mathematical model. The foundation study researches the historical development of data modelling and finds a structured set of seven archetypal forms of models from a catalogue of 2968 general models. These archetypal forms of models are applied to three different situational studies. vii The first situational study investigates the Gutenberg-Richter Equation as a reliable model for forecasting the likelihood of long-range seismic trends in the Snowy Mountain Region and the overlayed effects of Reservoir Induced Seismicity (RIS) amongst the 52 water dams in the greater Snowy Mountains Region. The study uses transformation models, to show how traditional investigations have over-reported the frequency and magnitude of RIS in this region. This new modelling approach provides a much improved RIS evaluation criteria, as well a surprising finding that reservoirs significantly reduce the risk of serious damage and harm from seismic events when they do, occasionally, occur. The second situational study looks at the second major earthquake in the Canterbury, New Zealand sequence of 2010-11. This second of four strong and major earthquakes caused massive damage, 185 fatalities, and 2,000 moderate to serious injuries, mostly in the city of Christchurch.