Public Disclosure Authorized ANALYSIS OF DISPLACEMENT IN SOMALIA Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The World Bank | Social Development | Global Program on Forced Displacement | July 2014 Public Disclosure Authorized © 2014 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Email: [email protected]. Web site: www.worldbank.org/forced-displacement All rights reserved. Disclaimer This paper is a product of the World Bank Group. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors or the governments they represent. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-8400; fax 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. Tana Copenhagen ApS Klosterstræde 23, 1st 1157 Copenhagen K Denmark Cover Photo: United Nations Photo/Tobin Jones Acknowledgements This report was produced by the Tana Copenhagen research institute under an initiative by the Global Program on Forced Displacement of the World Bank. The report is researched and written by Erik Bryld, Christine Kamau, and Dina Sinigallia of Tana. Support to the research and writing was provided by Niels Harild, Bernard Harborne, Joanna de Berry of the World Bank. Invaluable peer review comments were received from: Andrew James Roberts, Verena Phipps-Ebeler, Ruth Vargas Hill of the World Bank, Thomas Thomsen of the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and from UNHCR Somalia. Table of Contents Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 4 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 7 2 History, Causes and Characteristics of Displacement in Somalia ...................................... 10 2.1 History of Displacement ........................................................................................................................ 10 2.2 Drivers of Displacement ........................................................................................................................ 11 2.2.1 Drivers of displacement: Conflict .............................................................................................. 12 2.2.2 Drivers of displacement: Land Acquisition ........................................................................... 13 2.2.3 Drivers of displacement: Environmental Factors ............................................................... 14 2.2.4 Drivers of Displacement: Food Insecurity ............................................................................. 15 2.3 Characteristics of Displacement ........................................................................................................ 15 3 Current IDP Situation ......................................................................................................................... 17 3.1 South and Central Somalia ................................................................................................................... 17 3.2 Puntland ....................................................................................................................................................... 18 3.3 Somaliland .................................................................................................................................................. 19 4 Prospects for Return .......................................................................................................................... 20 5 Vulnerabilities and Development Needs of the Displaced.................................................... 24 5.1 Urban Vulnerabilities ............................................................................................................................. 24 5.2 Livelihood Vulnerabilities .................................................................................................................... 25 5.3 Security, Human Rights Abuses and Lack of Rule of Law ....................................................... 27 5.4 Gender Related Vulnerabilities .......................................................................................................... 28 5.5 Other Vulnerabilities ............................................................................................................................. 29 6 Political Economy Challenges .......................................................................................................... 30 6.1 Gatekeepers ............................................................................................................................................... 30 6.2 Clan Profile ................................................................................................................................................. 31 6.3 Access to Land .......................................................................................................................................... 32 6.4 Central, regional and local authorities ........................................................................................... 33 6.5 The political economy of international aid ................................................................................... 34 7 Development for IDPS - Recommendations ............................................................................... 36 7.1 A development response ..................................................................................................................... 36 7.2 Key recommendations at the policy level .................................................................................... 39 1 7.3 Further Research .................................................................................................................................... 40 Annex A – Displacement (and Migration) Trends ........................................................................... 41 Annex B – Clan Representation in Somalia ........................................................................................ 52 Annex C – Somalia’s Livelihood Zones ................................................................................................. 53 Annex D - IDPs’ Perceptions: Summary of Findings from Interviews with IDPs in South Central Somalia ............................................................................................................................................ 54 Annex E – Actors Mapping ....................................................................................................................... 60 Annex F – List of Persons Met ................................................................................................................. 68 Annex G – References ................................................................................................................................ 71 Annex H – Development Assistance and Framework Related to IDPs in Somalia ............... 73 Annex I – Clan Dynamics and IDPs in Somalia .................................................................................. 77 Annex J – Assessment Matrix Used in the Field ................................................................................ 84 Annex K – Recommendations for Further Analysis ........................................................................ 88 2 Abbreviations AU African Union CDRD Community-Driven Recovery and Development CISS Coordination of International Support to Somalis CoI Country of Origin Information DC District Commissioner EDF European Development Fund EIIP Improving Livelihoods through Employment Intensive Infrastructure Investment Programmes EU European Union FGoS Federal Government of Somalia GPFD Global Program on Forced Displacement HRW Human Rights Watch ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross IDPs Internally Displaced Persons ISN Interim Strategy Note IOM The International Organization for Migration JPLG Joint Programme on Local Decentralised Service Delivery MRR&R The Ministry for Return, Rehabilitation and Repatriation NGOs Non Governmental Organisations NRC Norwegian Refugee Council OIC Organisation for Islamic Cooperation PSD Private Sector Development RDP Reconstruction and Development Programme SDG The Somalia Donor Group SIDP Somali Institutional Development Project SSF Somalia Stability Fund UN OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNCDF United Nations Capital Development Fund UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund UNPOS United Nations Political Office for Somalia UNSAS United Nations Somalia Assistance