M.Phil. in Technology Policy 2007/2008 Facilitating International Cooperation in an Arctic Transformed by Global Warming Grant Michael Kopec Dr. William J. Nutall I confirm that this piece of work is my own unaided effort and conforms with the Judge Business School’s guidelines on plagiarism PROJECT AVAILABILITY please tick ONE box only Available (to Cambridge University staff and students only) X Embargoed (your project will not be made available immediately) Available after this date: Consult me (prospective readers will be directed to e-mail you for permission to read your project: if you do not give us a working e-mail address, we will make your project confidential) My e-mail address is: 1 Declaration This Project Report is substantially my own work and conforms to the Judge School guidelines on plagiarism. Where reference has been made to other research, this is acknowledged in the text and references. 2 Acknowledgements I would like to thank the following people for their invaluable assistance in completing this study. Dr. Paul Berkman, for giving the necessary guidance, background, and structure to this thesis. Lt. Cmdr. John Ash, Royal Navy [Ret.], for providing many of the ideas and resources regarding the technical feasibility of Arctic Ocean governance. Dr. William J. Nutall, for advising and providing useful insights on scenario analysis. Sally Daultrey, for her work in coordinating the support for this project. Dr. David Reiner, for general advising. Blake Driscoll, Satya Dash, Sarah Lovell, and the rest of the Technology Policy cohort for providing both critical insights and hours of distraction in the Judge Business School Computer Lab. 3 Abstract The environmental state change now occurring in the Arctic Ocean as a result of global climate change has precipitated increased human access to and utility in that region. As a result, long dormant questions of Arctic Ocean governance have been brought to the forefront of international consciousness. The United Nations Law of the Sea Convention determines the geopolitical division of the Arctic Ocean in theory. However, the formation of a stable governance arrangement in practice will depend upon the balance of the economic interests of the stakeholders in the Arctic Ocean and the ability to govern and regulate those interests in a sustainable manner. The opportunities and ability to exploit Arctic Ocean resources and the capability of governance policies to regulate such activity combine in order to create a scenario framework that can be used to analyse the potential long term impacts of Arctic governance polices. In turn, this scenario framework can be used to formulate policies that result in a sustainable system of governance in the Arctic Ocean. 4 Facilitating International Cooperation in an Arctic Transformed by Global Warming Table of Contents Declaration.....................................................................................................................2 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................3 Abstract ..........................................................................................................................4 Table of Contents..........................................................................................................5 Table of Figures.............................................................................................................7 Table of Tables..............................................................................................................7 Chapter 1: Arctic Ocean Governance through a Technology and Policy Framework .....................................................................................................................8 Introduction ............................................................................................................................8 The Geopolitical Donut in the Arctic Ocean.........................................................................9 Chapter 2: The Arctic Ocean State Change .............................................................13 The Environmental State Change........................................................................................13 Projected Future Environmental State Changes.................................................................15 Economic Opportunities and Security Threats...................................................................16 Chapter 3: Economic Activity and Regulation in the Arctic Ocean ....................17 The Current Arctic Fervour .................................................................................................17 Hydrocarbon Resources.......................................................................................................18 Metallic Mineral Resources..................................................................................................22 Biological Resources.............................................................................................................23 Shipping Lanes and Tourism...............................................................................................25 Conclusions on the Economic Exploitation of the Arctic Ocean .......................................27 Chapter 4: Governance in the Arctic Ocean............................................................27 The Common Heritage of Mankind ....................................................................................27 5 Arctic Governance Parallels with the Antarctic Treaty System.........................................28 National Claims to the Arctic Commons under UNCLOS III ...........................................31 UNCLOS III as a Test ...........................................................................................................33 Governance Scenarios Coupled with the Environmental State Change...........................35 The Svalbard Treaty as a Precedent for Practical Implementation of Arctic Ocean Governance...........................................................................................................................35 Chapter 5: Arctic Governance Scenarios .................................................................38 The Arctic Ocean from a Global Perspective ......................................................................38 A Governance vs. Economic Exploitation Scenario............................................................39 Scenario Analysis..................................................................................................................41 Wild Cards............................................................................................................................46 Chapter 6: Conclusions..............................................................................................47 Towards an International Governance Regime under UNCLOS III.................................47 Future Work..........................................................................................................................48 Definitions...................................................................................................................50 Abbreviations and Nomenclature.............................................................................50 References....................................................................................................................51 6 Table of Figures FIGURE 1: THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN, AS DIVIDED BY UNCLOS III. THE LIGHT BLUE AREA REPRESENTS THE EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONES (200 NM LIMIT) OF THE CLAIMANT NATIONS. THE DARK BLUE AREA IN THE CENTRE REPRESENTS THE ZONE BEYOND CLAIMANT NATIONS’ 200 NM LIMIT BUT WHICH COULD FALL UNDER NATIONAL JURISDICTION UNDER A CLAIMED EXTENSION OF THE CONTINENTAL SHELF. THE WHITE AREAS REPRESENT PARTS OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN WHERE NO NATIONAL CLAIMS TO SOVEREIGNTY COULD LIKELY BE MADE (MACNAB 2007, P. 3). TAKEN TOGETHER, THE DARK BLUE AND WHITE AREAS OF THE MAP REPRESENT THE ARCTIC OCEAN COMMONS............................................................................................................................10 FIGURE 2: HISTORICAL AND MODELLED FUTURE PREDICTION OF ARCTIC OCEAN SEA ICE EXTENT (AHLENIUS 2007)...........................................................................................14 FIGURE 3: PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT FROM MULTIPLE NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH MODELS (HOLLAND 2006).....15 FIGURE 4: MAP SHOWING CURRENT AND POTENTIAL FUTURE RESOURCE EXPLOITATION IN THE ARCTIC REGION (REKACEWICZ 2005)....................................20 FIGURE 5: PLOT OF THE NUMBER OF NATIONS THAT ARE PARTIES TO THE ANTARCTIC TREATY SYSTEM VS. TIME (BERKMAN 2002, P. 72).......................................................30 FIGURE 6: MAP OF SUSPECTED OIL AND GAS DEPOSITS OVERLAID WITH THE CURRENT TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN NORWAY AND RUSSIA IN THE BARENTS SEA REGION (REKACEWICZ 1998). ...........................................................................................37 FIGURE 7: SCENARIO FROM THE GLOBAL BUSINESS NETWORK AND THE ARCTIC COUNCIL’S PROTECTION OF THE ARCTIC MARINE ENVIRONMENT WORKING GROUP (GLOBAL 2008). ......................................................................................................39 FIGURE 8: SCENARIO SPACE DESCRIBING FOUR DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE TECHNICAL CAPABILITY OF NATIONAL AND