2016 NORTHERN TERRITORY ELECTION 27 August 2016 CONTENTS Page Introduction ............................................................................................................................. Summary of Legislative Assembly Election ........................................................................... 3 Legislative Assembly Results by Electoral Division ............................................................... 6 By-elections 2012-2016 ...................................................................................................... 11 Summary of Two-Party and Tw-Candidate Preferred Results ............................................. 12 Regional Summaries ........................................................................................................... 16 Elected and Defeated Members .......................................................................................... 18 Summary of Redistribution .................................................................................................. 19 List of Candidate ................................................................................................................. 20 Prepared by Antony Green – ABC Election Unit1 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting MPs .… ‘Ghost’ candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election (n.a.) Not available Party Abbreviations - Non-affiliated candidates 1TP 1 Territory Party ALP Australian Labor Party ASX Australian Sex Party (contested 2012 election) CEC Citizens Electoral Council CLP Country Liberal Party FNP First Nation's Party (contested 2012 election) IND Independent OTH Others GRN Green SFP Shooters and Fishers Party Important dates Issue of Writ Monday 8 August 2016 Close of Electoral Roll 8pm Wednesday 10 August 2016 Close of Nominations 12 noon Friday 12 August 2016 Polling Day Saturday 27 August 2016 Declaration of Poll and Return of Writ Monday 12 September 2016 Last Date for Return of Writ Friday 30 September 2016 2016 Northern Territory Election INTRODUCTION This paper provides basic details and analysis of the results of the 2016 Northern Territory election. It includes summaries of the results for all Legislative Assembly districts, comparisons with the 2012 election after adjusting for the redistribution, and statistical analysis of results and swings across districts and regions. A summary of by-elections in the 2012-16 parliament is also included. Format for Legislative Assembly Results For each Legislative Assembly district, details of primary and two-candidate preferred votes, percentages and swings are provided, along with alternative two-party preferred results where appropriate. The format and calculations used for each district are as follows. First Count: The vote shown for each candidate is the total of primary votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote. Change in vote share is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a candidate or party at the 2012 election from the percentage received at the 2016 election. The 2012 results have been adjusted for the redistribution. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the 2012 election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by "....") have been included representing candidates not contesting the 2016 election. All primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents votes for the two final candidates after the distribution of preferences. The total number of votes that exhaust preferences before reaching one of the final two candidates is shown as 'Exhausted'. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote for each candidate by the total of votes remaining in the count, that is the formal vote minus the exhausted vote. The exhausted percentage is calculated as a percentage of formal votes. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the final two candidates from the previous election. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the previous election (e.g. Araluen), ghost candidates are included, and more than two swing figures are shown. Two-Party Preferred: Represents a separate distribution of preferences between candidates of the Labor Party and the Country Liberals. This is included for districts where the formal distribution of preferences did not produce a two-party preferred finish. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred Results Two-candidate Preferred: To win an electorate, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes remaining in the count after the formal distribution of preferences. The distribution is performed by successively excluding candidates with the lowest primary vote and distributing each candidate’s ballot papers according to the next preferences for a candidate remaining in the count. At the end of the count, the vote for the two final candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred vote'. Two-Party Preferred: Most Northern Territory elections finish as a contest between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Country Liberals. The final distribution of preferences between Labor and Country Liberal candidates is referred to as the 'two-party preferred count'. If the two- candidate preferred count is not also a two-party preferred count, an alternate distribution of preference is undertaken retaining Labor and Country Liberal candidates through the distribution. The Northern Territory Electoral Commission carried out alternative two-party preferred counts in seven districts. These were in four Labor-Independent contests (Barkly, Blain, Karama, Nhulunbuy) and three Country Liberal-Independent contests (Araluen, Goyder, Nelson). All two-party preferred tables in this publication have been derived from these additional two-party preferred distributions. Analysis of Two-Candidate Preferred Results and Exhausted Votes The 2016 election was the first conducted after the switch from full to optional preferential voting. A number of tables in this publication include analysis of exhausted preferences. In particular see the table of two-candidate preferred counts on page 13. Prepared by Antony Green – ABC Election Unit 1 2016 Northern Territory Election By-elections, Redistributions, Retirements, Changes of Party Status. Three by-elections were conducted between 2012 and 2016, Wanguri in February 2013, Blain April 2014, and Casuarina October 2014. A summary of the results can be found on page 11. Swings shown are compared to the 2012 election. Note that the swings for the 2016 election ignore by-election results. A major redistribution was finalised in 2015. It abolished the Alice Springs seat of Greatorex and created a new Palmerston based seat known as Spillett. A summary of the redistribution can be found on page 19. The summary includes details of retiring members, members changing seats and members that changed party since the 2012 election. Five members retired at the election. These were Alison Anderson (Namatajira, IND, ex-CLP), Nathan Barrett (Blain CLP), Matt Conlan (Greatorex CLP), John Elferink (Port Darwin CLP) and David Tollner (Fong Lim CLP), Conlan's retirement came following the abolition of his seat in the redistribution. Analysis of seats changing party at the 2016 is greatly complicated by five members parting company with their former party and joining the crossbench. The table below summarises these changes in representation. District Old Party Details Araluen CLP MLA Robyn Lambley re-contested and was elected as an Independent. Arnhem CLP MLA Larisa Lee re-contested but was defeated as an Independent. Goyder CLP MLA Kezia Purick re-contested and was elected as an Independent. Karama ALP MLA Delia Lawrie was denied Labor endorsement and unsuccessfully re-contested the seat as an Independent. Namatjira CLP MLA Alison Anderson did not re-contest. Details of redistribution, electorate and party membership changes are footnoted underneath the result for each district. Disclaimer All results are based on details made available by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission. However, responsibility for all calculations, errors and omissions is taken by the author. The author also takes responsibility for the redistribution estimates used as the basis calculating swings. Antony Green January 2020 2 Antony Green – ABC Election Unit – July 2016 2016 Northern Territory Election SUMMARY OF LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY RESULT TERRITORY TOTALS Candi Seats Party dates Won Change Votes % Votes Swing Australian Labor Party 25 18 +10 41,476 42.19 +5.74 Country Liberals 25 2 -14 31,263 31.80 -18.83 Independent 39 5 +4 18,432 18.75 +12.71 1 Territory Party 13 .. .. 3,520 3.58 +3.58 Greens 6 .. .. 2,817 2.87 -0.43 Shooters and Fishers Party 2 .. .. 523 0.53 +0.53 Citizens Electoral Council 4 .. .. 189 0.19 +0.19 No Affiliation 1 .. .. 79 0.08 -0.49 First Nations Party .. .. .. .. .. -2.22 Australian Sex party .. .. .. .. .. -0.78 Formal 115 .. .. 98,299 98.00 Informal 2,005 2.00 -1.23 Total Votes 100,304 74.02 -2.89 Enrolment 135,506 Note: The change column compares seats won by party at the 2012 and 2016 elections. There were numerous departures to the crossbench during the 2012-16 parliament, and the party composition of members before the election was Country Liberal 12, Labor seven and Independents six. Compared to these numbers, Labor gained a net 11 seats, the CLP lost 10 and there was one fewer Independent. See notes on seat changes below. Seats Changing Party