Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting_1994 collect by macbookpro2100 Afternoon Session - 1994 Meeting BerkshireHathaway Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger answer questions about Berkshire's investments in Salomon Brothers and Coca-Cola. (This session is audio only because a video recording is not available.) 1. No comment on Guinness investment 1.没有评论吉尼斯投资 WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 2 now.Well, I don't know where zone 2 is, but we'll — (laughs) WARREN BUFFETT：现在是第2区。好吧，我不知道2区在哪里，但我们会 - （笑） AUDIENCE MEMBER: Do you feel basically the same about your investment in Guinness now as when you made the investment, in terms of the company? 听众会员：就您在公司方面的投资而言，您现在对您在吉尼 斯的投资感觉基本相同吗？ WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I wouldn't like to comment on anything that we own, in terms of how we rate them as desirability or anything.I mean, whether it’s Coke or Gillette or anything that — we made decisions at a given time, at a given price, which you can figure out by looking at our purchases. WARREN BUFFETT ：嗯，我不想评论我们拥有的任何东西，就我们如何评价它们的可取性或任何 东西而言。我的意思是，无论是可乐还是吉列，还是其他任何东西 - 我们在特定时间以给定价格做出 决定，你可以通过查看我们的购买来弄清楚。 But we may be buying or selling any of those securities right as we talk.And we simply don't think it's in the interest of Berkshire shareholders as a group to be talking about things that we could be buying or selling. 但是，正如我们所 说，我们可能正在购买或出售任何证券。我们根本不认为这是一个集团谈论我们可 以购买或出售的东西符合伯克希尔股东的利益。 2. World Book's sales slide: "I wish I knew the answer" 2. World Book的销售幻灯片：“我希望我知道答案” WARREN BUFFETT: OK? WARREN BUFFETT：好吗 ？ AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, David Winters, from Mountain Lakes, New Jersey. 听众：嗨，大卫温特斯，来自新泽西州的Mountain Lakes。 Just wondering, World Book’s had a tough time lately, and I'm wondering if there's things you're doing to try to improve that. 只是想知道，World Book最 近经历了一段艰难时期，我想知道你是否正在努力改善这一点。 And also, The Buffalo News has been fabulous.And I'm kind of wondering what's driving The Buffalo News? 此外，布法罗新 闻一直很精彩。我有点想知道是什么推动了布法罗新闻？ WARREN BUFFETT: Buffalo News is doing what? WARREN BUFFETT：布法罗新闻正在做什么？ AUDIENCE MEMBER: Fabulously. 观众成员：非常棒。 WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, it's doing well, right.Well, I would say you got to give credit Stan Lipsey — I'm not sure whether Stan's here right now, but — who's been running the News. WARREN BUFFETT：是的，它做得很好，对。好吧，我会说你得信任Stan Lipsey - 我不确定Stan 现在是否在这里，但是 - 谁一直在运行新闻。 World Book, in terms of unit sales — as we put in the report — have fallen off significantly the last few years.It's actually surprising, in a sense, how well the profits have held up because they've done a good job, a very good job, in that respect. 世界图书，就单位销售而言 - 正如我们在报告中所 述 - 在过去几年中大幅下降。从某种意义上说，实 际上令人惊讶的是，由于他们在这方面做得很好，做得很好，所以利润有多好。 And as we put in the report, we don't know the answer, precisely.We are, Ralph Schey is — has taken some actions — is taking some actions — that he thinks will improve the operations.Ralph's record as a manager is absolutely at the top of the list.I mean, it — I wrote about it in the 1992 report. 正如我 们在报告中提到的那样，我们确切地知道答案。我们是，拉尔夫·谢伊 - 采取了一些行动 - 采 取了一些行动 - 他认为这将改善行动。拉尔夫作为经理的记录绝对是最重要的。我的意思是，它 - 我 在1992年的报告中写过它。 In 1993, Ralph did even better.I mean, it was a — fabulous.I think, probably, may have been 110 or so million pre-tax on 90-some million of average equity capital, or something of the sort.So it's a fabulous record. 1993年，拉尔夫 做得更好。我的意思是，这太棒了。我认为，对于90-百万美元的平均权益资本，或 者类似的东西，可能已经有110亿左右的税前税。所以这是一个非常棒的记录。 But Encyclopedia Britannica, as you probably know, ran at a loss last year.The encyclopedia business has been very — has been poor.Could be due to electronic competition, could be due to recruiting problems for salespeople.Obviously, it can be a combination of many factors. 但你可能知道，不列颠百科全书（Encyclopedia Britannica）去年亏损了。百科全书业务 一直很差。 可能是由于电子竞争，可能是由于招聘人员的问题。显然，它可以是许多因素的组合。 If we knew the answer, we'd have — you wouldn't be seeing those figures right now.But it is a top item of attention for Ralph.He takes anything that's not performing as well as before very seriously.And we will see what happens. 如果我们知道答案，我们就会 - 你现在不 会看到这些数字。但这是拉尔夫最关注的项目。他认为任何 表现都不如以前那么严重的表现。我们会看到会发生什么。 But I don't have a prediction on it.I wish I knew the answer.I don't see any variables to, in any intelligent way, tell you or — we put in the report the best we could do on that. 但我没有预测。我希望我知道答案。我没有看到任何变量，以任何聪明的方式告诉你或 - 我们在报告 中尽我们所能做的最好。 The profitability has, like I say, has been pretty good.But obviously, current trends of new sales will catch up with us at some point, unless we boost unit sales. 像我说的那样，盈利能力一直很好。但显然，除非我们提高 销量，否则目前的新销售趋势将在某个时 候赶上我们。 I don't think our market share, if you look at print encyclopedias, has fallen.But I can't be sure of that, but I think that's probably true.But there are an awful lot of encyclopedias going out there as part of a bundled product with computer sales. 如果你看一下印刷百科全书，我认为我们的市场 份额已经下降了。但我不能确定，但我认为这可能是 真的。但是，有大量的百科全书作为计算机销售捆绑产品的一部分出现在那里。 3. Breaking up Berkshire wouldn't help 打破伯克希尔无济于事 WARREN BUFFETT: How are we going to do this, is there? WARREN BUFFETT：我们怎么做，是吗？ VOICE: We got three now. 声音：我们现在有三个。 WARREN BUFFETT: OK, I'll let you hand the mic to whomever, you — WARREN BUFFETT：好的，我会让你把麦克风交给任何人，你 - VOICE: (Inaudible) three. 声音:(听不清）三。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Lee again, from Palo Alto.By Omaha standards you are a relatively young man. 观众成 员：Lee再次来自Palo Alto。根据奥马哈的标准，你是一个相对年轻的人。 And every year, you point out that Berkshire’s size now precludes you from making the great, relatively small trades which made your reputation. 每年，你都会指出，伯克希尔的规模现在使你不能做出 能够赢得声誉的伟大，相对较小的交易。 How much thought have you given to breaking up Berkshire into smaller entities? 你有多想过将伯克希尔分拆成更小的实体？ WARREN BUFFETT: How much what? WARREN BUFFETT：多少钱？ AUDIENCE MEMBER: How much thought have you given into breaking up Berkshire into smaller entities, which would allow you to make those nice, small, wonderful trades that you made from the beginning? 观众成员： 你有多少想法将伯克希尔分解成更小的实体，这可以让你从一开始就做出那些美好，小 巧，精彩的交易？ WARREN BUFFETT: It wouldn't do any good to break into smaller entities, because I'd still own, you know, we'd still have 10 billion-plus of capital to be responsible for, wherever it would be. WARREN BUFFETT：闯入较小的实体是没有任何好处的，因为我仍然拥有，你知道，无论在哪 里，我们仍然有100亿美元的资本负责。 So, the — we could distribute it out to the shareholders, and let them make their own decisions, obviously.And any time we thought that we weren't going to get more than a dollar of value per dollar retained, that, obviously, would be the course to follow. 所以， - 我们可以将它分发给股东，让他们自己做出决定。任何 时候我们都认为我们不会保留每美元 超过1美元的价值，显然，这将是接下来的路线。 But there's no magic to creating multiple little — I mean, we could call Berkshire Two, Berkshire Three, Berkshire Four, but you still got the problem.There's $10 billion to invest, and it doesn't really solve anything. 但创造多个小小 的东西并没有什么魔力 - 我的意思是，我们可以打电话给Berkshire Two，Berkshire Three，Berkshire Four，但你仍然遇到了问题。投资100亿美元，并没有真正解决任何问题。 Charlie, do you have any thoughts on that? 查理，你有什么想法吗？ CHARLIE MUNGER: No, the — Berkshire is incredibly decentralized, in the — in terms of power and decisions resting in the operating divisions.In terms of the marketable securities, it's incredibly centralized. CHARLIE MUNGER ：不，伯克希尔在权力和决策方面处于非常分散的地位。就有价证券而言，它 非常集中。 And so far, we have not had any big penalty from not being able to do the things that we did when we were young.Eventually we will reach the penalty. 到目前为止，我们没有受到任何重大的惩罚，因为我 们不能做我们年轻时所做的事情。最终我们将达 到惩罚。 WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, I think we’re — there's no question we could earn higher percentage returns working with $100,000, though, than $10 billion.But, yeah — but it hasn't hurt us as much as we thought it would, as size has increased. WARREN BUFFETT：是的，我认为我们 - 毫无 疑问，我们可以获得更高的回报百分比，而不是100 亿美元。但是，是的 - 但随着规模的增加，它并没有像我们想象的那样伤害我们。 But your universe of opportunity shrinks.But it shrinks no matter — I mean, you can set it up in 20 bank accounts or one bank account, but you still — the universe still has to fit the 10 billion, in aggregate. 但是你的机 会范围缩小了。但它无论如何都会缩小 - 我的意思是，你可以在20个银行账户或一个银行 账户中设置它，但你仍然 - 宇宙仍然需要总计100亿。 4. "Absolutely sensational job" by General Dynamics management 4.通用动力公司管理层的“绝对耸人听闻的工作” WARREN BUFFETT: Now, how are we doing this?Do we have another zone over there?Yeah. WARREN BUFFETT：现在，我们如何做到这一点？我们那边有另一个区吗？是啊。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Michael Bunyaner (PH), New York City. 观众成员：纽约市Michael Bunyaner（PH）。 Two questions.One, last year you discussed in your annual report your investment in General Dynamics.And you also gave your proxy to the company and its management.This year, it appears you have sold the stock. 两个问题。一，去年您在 年度报告中讨论了您对通用动力的投资。您还将您的代理人交给了公司及其 管理层。今年，看来你卖掉了股票。 WARREN BUFFETT: This year, what? 沃伦巴菲特：今年，什么？ AUDIENCE MEMBER: This year, it appears that you have sold the stock in General Dynamics. 观众成员：今年，您似乎已经在通用动力公司出售了该股票。 What has changed that you sold 20 percent of your stake?This is question number one, and I have number two. 你卖出20％的 股份有什么变化？这是第一个问题，我有第二个问题。 WARREN BUFFETT: Probably inappropriate to be talking about what we're buying or selling, except to the extent that we make a public — have to make a public announcement, which, on something like General Dynamics, we've got 13G requirements if wechange by more than 5 percent. WARREN BUFFETT：谈论我们购买或出售的东西可能不合适，除非我们公开宣传 - 必须公开宣 布，就像通用动力公司这样，我们有13G的要求，如果我们变化超过5％。 And we also have — as long as we own more than 10 percent — we have monthly reporting requirements under Form 4. 我们也有 - 只要我们拥有超过 10％ - 我们在表格4下有月度报告要求。 We think the management of General Dynamics has done an absolutely sensational job. 我们认为通用动力公司的管理层做了绝对耸人听闻的工作。 Obviously, also it isn't the kind of business, basically, that we have a 20-year view on, or something of the sort.So, it’s — the shareholders of General Dynamics have been extraordinarily well-served by the management of that company.And we’ve — we're thankful, because we prospered accordingly.