spotlight europe # 2008/05 – May 2008 Green Light from the Emerald Isle? Ten Questions and Answers about Ireland Dominik Hierlemann Bertelsmann Stiftung, [email protected] Christian Heydecker Bertelsmann Stiftung, [email protected] On 12 June 2008 Europeans will be looking intently at Ireland, for the Irish electorate is the only one in Europe which is being permitted to vote on the Treaty of Lisbon. For a long time the referendum seemed to be a foregone conclusion. However, as the poll approaches, a “Yes” vote is be- ginning to seem more uncertain. Ten questions and answers shed some light on the current situation. I The Irish electorate was the only one in Europe which was asked to comment on How do the Irish vote on the Treaty of Nice, whereas in all of the European issues? other member states the decision lay with the national parliaments. In view of the Over the past 36 years there have been six unruffled nature of the previous referen- referendums in Ireland on crucial deci- dums, the clearly pro-European attitudes # 2008/05 sions pertaining to the European integra- of the voters, and Ireland’s positive eco- tion process. Whenever there is a funda- nomic development after 1973 in the wake mental change in the European treaties, of EC membership, the political establish- the electorate has the right to express its ment in Dublin and Brussels made the views on the subject at the ballot box. On mistake of thinking that obtaining support five occasions the Irish voted in favour of for the Treaty would be a mere formality. the European project at issue – member- As it happened, electoral participation ship of the EC in 1972, and the revision of dropped to 35 per cent, and 54 per cent of the treaties in 1987, 1992, 1998 and 2002. the Irish electorate voted “No”. The most Thus in June 2001 it came as a complete famous slogan was “If you don’t know, surprise to other Europeans when the Irish vote No”. Almost one in two of those who spotlight europe rejected the Treaty of Nice. had voted against the Treaty stated that they felt they had not been given enough and the Dáil, it envisages a mandate from information. the UN Security Council. The “No” camp was spearheaded by the • Supplemental clause: A new clause in Greens, Sinn Féin and the Socialist Party. the Irish constitution provided a guarantee Their campaign was based on polarization: that Ireland would not participate in the “No to Nice, No to NATO”, and “You will common European defence policy before lose Power, Money and Freedom”. The op- the electorate had given its express assent ponents of the Treaty warned against at- to such a step in a referendum. tempts to undermine the traditional Irish policy of neutrality by the introduction of the EU rapid reaction force, which they perceived as a forerunner of a European army. Furthermore, they believed that the smaller member states would be marginal- ized by the new decision-making system, and predicted the emergence of a Euro- pean super-state and a “tidal wave of im- migration” as a result of eastern enlarge- ment. 2 II Page What were the conse- quences of the “No” to the Treaty of Nice? In order to secure the support of the elec- torate in a second referendum held in Oc- tober 2002, the Irish government imple- mented a number of specific measures: Green Light from the Emerald Isle? Isle? Emerald from the Light Green • National Forum on Europe: The all-party National Forum on Europe was established in October 2001. Its members included both supporters of the treaty and euro- sceptics. The aim was to remedy the in- formation deficit among voters and to fa- # 2008/05 cilitate a broad debate about Ireland’s membership of the EU and the future of Europe. • Parliamentary scrutiny: The Irish gov- ernment enhanced the rights of the par- • National Declaration of Ireland: The liament with regard to European policy is- Irish government emphasized in this sues by instituting a new “Committee on declaration, which is not legally binding, European Affairs” and by mandating a that the traditional policy of neutrality strict government duty to provide informa- would not be affected by the Treaty of tion. Nice. A “triple lock” was enacted for par- ticipation in EU military operations. In ad- As a result of all this, the second referen- dition to assent from the Irish government dum was a success. A broad majority (63 spotlight europe per cent) of the Irish voters gave the green light for eastern enlargement and the nec- two predominant parties. Fianna Fáil has essary institutional reforms. A decisive been the strongest political force in Ire- factor was the mobilization of voters who land since 1932, whereas Fine Gael has had abstained in the first referendum. usually been in opposition. After the par- liamentary elections in May 2007 and III more than ten years of two-party rule un- der Fianna Fáil and the liberal Progressive Democrats, the government was expanded What is the current mood to include a new coalition partner, the in the country? Greens. Although more than 90 per cent of the For a long time there was a danger that Treaty of Lisbon is identical with the Con- Prime Minister Bertie Ahern’s bad ap- stitutional Treaty, in Ireland support for proval ratings might have an adverse ef- the new European basic document seems fect on the result of the referendum. to have evaporated. The large number of Whilst Ahern was being touted as a prom- undecided voters makes it especially diffi- ising candidate for the forthcoming office cult to predict the result of the vote on 12 of President of the European Council on June. More than two-thirds of the Irish the European stage, at home 54 per cent of electorate is of the opinion that it does not the voters were dissatisfied with him, and 3 know enough about what the treaty con- as many as 78 per cent doubted his credi- tains, and only one voter in ten feels that bility. “Teflon Bertie”, who had always Page he has actually been given sufficient in- managed to shrug things off in the past, formation. It is a noteworthy and perturb- finally stepped down from all his political ing fact that it was precisely this lack of offices on 6 May on account of persistent information which led to the rejection of criticism of his personal financial dealings the Treaty of Nice in the referendum held and accusations of corruption. The danger in June 2001. of an anti-Ahern vote has thus been averted. It is now up to his successor Voter participation will be of decisive im- Brian Cowen, hitherto Minister for Fi- portance for the outcome of the referen- nance, to secure Irish approval for the dum on the Reform Treaty. In the past the Treaty of Lisbon. Green Light from the Emerald Isle? Isle? Emerald from the Light Green average participation in referendums was slightly above 52 per cent. The situation IV will become rather precarious if participa- tion, as in the case of the first unsuccess- ful referendum on the Treaty of Nice (35 Are the Irish still per cent), were to sink significantly below pro-European? the 50 per cent mark. The opponents of # 2008/05 the treaty will no doubt, as always, man- Ireland has always been one of the mem- age to mobilize their supporters as the ber states whose citizens have had the campaign progresses. most positive attitude towards European integration. The figures published in the Thus in the run-up to the referendum the most recent Eurobarometer show that 74 Irish political parties have an important per cent of the Irish – compared to an EU task to accomplish. In Ireland the classic average of 58 per cent – believe that their cleavages are of only secondary impor- country’s membership of the EU is “a good tance, and categories such as “right” and thing”. And as many as 87 per cent, which “left” are devoid of meaning. To this day is the highest figure in the whole of the the political parties owe far more to the European Union, are convinced that Ire- struggle for Irish independence in the land benefits from its membership of the 1920s. It saw the rise of what are still the EU. spotlight europe On account of the traditional Irish policy dom. One particular opt-out negotiated by of neutrality, the Irish government has al- its British neighbours has direct implica- ways expressed reservations about par- tions for the “Emerald Isle”. The two states ticipating in the Common Defence Policy. have traditionally formed a “Common However, 67 per cent of the Irish are in Travel Area” in which there are no border fact in favour of a Common Security and controls. Their geographical situation as Defence Policy, and 66 per cent would islands without direct land borders with welcome a Common Foreign Policy. other member states is perceived in Dub- 4 Page Yet positive opinion poll results do not lin and London as an advantage in the provide a guarantee that a referendum will fight against organized crime and illegal turn out to be a success. Virtually identi- immigration. Furthermore, the UK and Ire- Green Light from the Emerald Isle? Isle? Emerald from the Light Green cal results were obtained before the first land have similar legal systems, in which referendum on the Treaty of Nice – and at common law – and not statute law as on the end of the day the Irish still said “No”.