__________________________________________________________________________________ An Assessment of Enterprise Opportunities in Environmental Goods and Services A Report to Forfás and InterTrade Ireland __________________________________________________________________________________ August 2008 An Assessment of Enterprise Opportunities in Environmental Goods and Services CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... 2 1. CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 13 2. CHAPTER 2: THE GLOBAL EGS MARKET ............................................................................. 18 3. CHAPTER 3: AN OVERVIEW OF THE EGS SECTOR IN IRELAND .............................................. 36 4. CHAPTER 4: THE EGS INDUSTRY BY SUB-SECTOR ................................................................ 50 5. CHAPTER 5: KEY DRIVERS ............................................................................................... 172 6. CHAPTER 6: INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARKS.................................................................... 187 7. CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................. 210 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS An Assessment of Enterprise Opportunities in Environmental Goods and Services EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction “The environmental goods and services industry consists of activities which produce goods and services to measure, prevent, limit, minimise or correct environmental damage to water, air and soil, as well as problems related to waste, noise and eco systems. This includes cleaner technologies, products and services that reduce environmental risk and minimise pollution and resource use.” 1 The Environmental Goods and Services (EGS) sector is therefore quite diverse. For the purposes of this study includes the following sub-sectors: o Air Pollution Control o Cleaner Technologies and Processes o Environmental Consultancy o Environmental Monitoring, Instrumentation and Analysis o Energy Management/Efficiency o Marine Pollution Control o Noise and Vibration Control o Remediation and Reclamation of Land o Renewable Energy o Waste Management, Recovery and Recycling o Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment In addition, a separate assessment has been carried out of the construction sector as many of its products, such as heat pumps, lighting, insulation and building materials, could be categorised as environmental products. The sector has expanded significantly in recent years, largely driven by more robust compliance with EU environmental legislation. However, the focus is now beginning to change as rising energy prices, growing awareness of the consequences of climate change, and increased demand for greener and more environmentally sustainable goods and services are having, and are likely to have, an increasingly important influence on the sector going forward. Against this background, Forfás and InterTrade Ireland commissioned this study to assess the business opportunities which are likely to arise in coming years and to ensure that enterprises on the island and the State development agencies are well placed to take advantage of these opportunities. This study examines the current state of the EGS sector in Ireland/Northern Ireland, both in terms of its structure and dynamics, and assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the sector. In 1 The Global Environmental Goods and Services Industries, Graham Vickery & Maria Iarrera, OECD, 1996. 2 An Assessment of Enterprise Opportunities in Environmental Goods and Services addition, it seeks to identify and analyse a number of promising areas in the EGS sector where new domestic and export opportunities are likely to occur. The study also highlights priority areas that may attract FDI. A key finding - based on an assessment of the considerable evidence gathering during the course of this study - is that a strategic policy framework should be put in place to ensure that Irish companies, or companies choosing to base their activities in Ireland, can take advantage of the growth in demand for EGS which is expected in coming years. The Global EGS Market It is estimated that the value of the EGS sector was in excess of $600 billion worldwide in 2005 and is likely to exceed $700 billion by 2010 and $800 billion by 2015.2 This is triple the size of the global aerospace industry.3 Firms in OECD countries are estimated to account for about 90% of the global EGS market. However, this situation is now beginning to change and many transition and developing countries, in particular China and India, are now seeing strong economic growth, in response to concerted environmental problems, including air and water quality, arising from their rapid industrialisation and urbanisation. In the developed world, compliance with environmental rules continues to drive investment, in particular in the areas of energy efficiency and renewables. Overarching all this at a global level is the ‘decarbonisation’ of society where the twin threats of oil and gas depletion and responding to climate change act as the biggest single driver in the sub-sectors of energy efficiency and renewable energy. Indeed, a recent report from the UK Commission on Environmental Markets and Economic Performance highlighted the fact that the market for new low-carbon energy technologies is now estimated to have reached $100 billion per year. Investment in the EGS sector worldwide has also increased dramatically in recent years. Venture capital investment in the area of clean technology is now overtaking investment in areas considered core destinations for this capital. For example, in 2006, clean technology became the third largest venture capital investment category in North America, trailing only IT and biotechnology. At a global and regional level, the sub-sectors which are considered to have the strongest growth potential are clean technologies and renewable energy technology. Dwindling sources and availability of potable water throughout the world are also proving to be a factor aiding the development of the water/wastewater sub-sector. As the global EGS market is dynamic, this provides an opportunity for IDA Ireland and Invest 2 ENDS Directory 2008, U.K. CEED Global Market Estimate. 3 UK Commission on Environmental Markets and Economic Performance (BERR/DEFRA Report, November 2007). 3 An Assessment of Enterprise Opportunities in Environmental Goods and Services Northern Ireland to target some of the international EGS players that are identified in the study. The EGS Sector in Ireland/Northern Ireland While few published statistics are available, industry estimates at sub-sector level would suggest that the value of the EGS sector is in the region of €4.3 to €5.2 billion, with Northern Ireland accounting for nearly €1billion. Some parts of the sector - waste, water, renewables and environmental consultancy for example - have seen rapid growth in recent years largely driven by public capital investment and the compliance burden resulting from the national implementation of EU legislation. The growth in the sector overall has also coincided with increased public awareness of the threats to our physical environment and the potential risks to human health that can arise from this. With the exception of a small number of major players, the EGS market is dominated by SMEs who have established a substantial business presence over the past ten years. This trend has been associated with the significant increase in public investment in environmental services and infrastructure. It is important to note, however, that key sectors such as renewables, environmental consultancy and waste and water are dominated by subsidiaries of UK and EU parent companies which may affect the export opportunities available to these Irish operations. To a very large extent, with a few notable exceptions, the EGS sector is playing catch-up with the technologies in greatest demand (RES-E and waste management) that are deployed and exploited by European companies of scale. This has implications for the prospect of an EGS company breaking in to the market for PV (solar technology), for example, without the setting up of a joint venture with an existing manufacturer. At the same time, however, many EGS markets are starting from a low base of activity so it should be possible to gain market share in niche areas. While it is difficult to provide an accurate figure, it is estimated that the level of investment that may be needed by 2020 if Ireland is to meet its legal obligations on foot of EU Directives on the environment, RES-E and energy efficiency is in the region of €38 billion. SWOT The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the EGS sector were determined taking account of stakeholder feedback and EGS related research and can be summarised as: Strengths Opportunities • Large public sector investment • Rapidly growing global market • Government commitment to use fiscal and • Potential emerging markets in Eastern and other incentives Central Europe 4 An Assessment of Enterprise Opportunities in Environmental Goods and Services • Commitment to regulatory enforcement • Business opportunity generated though • Open economy facilitates imported know- public procurement how • North/south alignment on infrastructure • Access to natural energy sources investment which could support EGS • Vibrant domestic economy and rising •