THE QUEST FOR UNCONTESTED POWER: HOW PRESIDENTS’ PERSONALITY TRAITS LEAD TO CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE by Ignacio Arana Araya B.A. in Journalism and Mass Communication, Universidad Católica de Chile, 2002 M.A. in Political Science, Universidad de Chile, 2007 M.A. in Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, 2010 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Kenneth P. Dietrich School of Arts and Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2015 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH THE DIETRICH SCHOOL OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Ignacio Arana Araya It was defended on September 10, 2015 and approved by John Carey, Chair, Department of Government, Dartmouth College Silvia Borzutzky, Teaching Professor, Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University Kevin Morrison, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Pittsburgh Scott Morgenstern, Associate Professor, Political Science, University of Pittsburgh Dissertation Advisor: Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Professor, Political Science, University of Pittsburgh ii Copyright © by Ignacio Arana Araya 2015 iii THE QUEST FOR UNCONTESTED POWER: HOW PRESIDENTS’ PERSONALITY TRAITS LEAD TO CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE Ignacio Arana Araya, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2015 Does it matter who the president is? If so, how does it matter? Most political science research that analyzes the presidency treats the individual differences of presidents as “residual variance.” I challenge this approach arguing that presidents’ decisions are shaped by their individual differences. I test the argument examining which presidents attempt to make constitutional changes to increase their powers or relax their term limits. Considering presidents who were governing by 1945, thirty eight leaders of the Western Hemisphere have made such attempts forty eight times. I hypothesize that presidents who are risk prone and have an assertive personality are more likely to try to change their country's legal charter. I answer the research question using a novel dataset of personality traits and background characteristics for 315 presidents who governed between 1945 and 2012. The dataset integrates information from a survey distributed to 911 experts from 26 nationalities, the coding of 13 individual characteristics of the leaders and semi-structured interviews conducted with 21 former presidents. The empirical analyses support the two hypotheses in the cases of presidents that try to change their powers, while the leaders’ assertiveness also proves to be a relevant cause of their attempts to relax their term limits. Interestingly, the individual differences of presidents have a stronger explanatory iv power than complementary explanations of constitutional reforms (i.e., institutional and contextual variables). This study makes important contributions. First, it advances the frontier of studies on the presidency by revealing how the uniqueness of presidents explain political outcomes. Second, it helps to integrate the current divide between quantitative and qualitative studies on the presidency. Third, its interdisciplinary approach provides a deeper understanding of institutional change. Current explanations of this foundational question in the social sciences remain incomplete because they have neglected the role of powerful individuals. Finally, this study proposes to make significant progress in understanding the relation between represented and their elected representatives, by helping to show how the citizens can use the individual differences of political candidates to anticipate how presidents will perform in office. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................. ………………………………………………..XI 1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 PLAN OF THE DISSERTATION ................................................................... 11 2.0 PERSONALIZING THE PRESIDENCY ................................................................ 15 2.1 THE DOWNFALL OF PRESIDENTIAL IDENTITY .................................. 18 2.1.1 The Quantitative Shift ................................................................................ 24 2.2 CHIEF EXECUTIVES IN THREE DOMINANT APPROACHES ............. 29 2.2.1 Quantitative Works .................................................................................... 29 2.2.2 Game Theoretic Accounts of the Presidency............................................. 32 2.2.3 Historical Institutionalism and American Political Development .......... 34 2.2.4 The Uniqueness of Presidents, an Uncomfortable Nexus ........................ 36 2.3 PRESIDENTS IN THE PSYCHOLOGY LITERATURE ............................ 37 2.4 WHAT PSYCHOLOGY CAN TEACH US ABOUT PRESIDENTS AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE ........................................................................................... 43 3.0 PRESIDENTS AND CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS: WHO CHANGES THE RULES?........................................................................................................................................ 46 3.1 CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE AND PRESIDENTS .................................. 48 3.2 WHAT DO PRESIDENTS SAY? ..................................................................... 64 vi 3.2.1 Individual Differences and Governing ...................................................... 68 3.2.2 The Context ................................................................................................. 81 3.2.3 The Constitution.......................................................................................... 85 3.3 A PSYCHOLOGICAL EXPLANATION OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ATTEMPTS ........................................................................................................................ 94 3.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS ............................................................................ 99 4.0 HOW TO STUDY THE PERSONALITY OF PRESIDENTS? .......................... 102 4.1 DIFFERENT APPROACHES ........................................................................ 103 4.2 WHY AN EXPERT SURVEY? ...................................................................... 107 4.3 EXPERT SURVEYS IN POLITICAL SCIENCE ........................................ 110 4.4 THE SURVEY ON PRESIDENTS ................................................................ 112 4.4.1 The Search and Selection of Experts ....................................................... 117 4.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS .......................................................................... 121 5.0 THE QUEST TO CONSOLIDATE POWER: SAMPLE AND DATA .............. 122 5.1 WHO CHANGES THE CONSTITUTION? ................................................. 123 5.2 THE INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES ............................................................ 124 5.3 ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE…………………………………………………………………………………129 5.4 PERSONALITY, INSTITUTIONS, AND CONTEXT REVISITED…..…135 5.5 METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES: ENDOGENEITY AND SELECTION BIAS………………………………………………………………………………………138 5.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS .......................................................................... 142 6.0 THE INTIMATE RELATION WITH CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE ........... 143 vii 6.1 ACCOUNTING FOR RATER SELECTION ............................................... 145 6.2 PERSONALITY AND PRESIDENTIAL ATTEMPTS ............................... 147 6.3 ENDOGENEITY CONCERNS ...................................................................... 158 6.4 ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES ................................................................. 160 6.4.1 Conditional Effects………………………………………........................ 160 6.4.2 Homogeneity Concerns ............................................................................. 164 6.5 ALTERNATIVE SPECIFICATIONS ........................................................... 170 6.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS .......................................................................... 175 7.0 PERSONALITY TRAITS IN ACTION ................................................................ 178 7.1 MANUEL ZELAYA AND THE COUP ........................................................ 182 7.2 HUGO CHÁVEZ AGAINST THE “OLD REGIME”….. ........................... 189 7.3 LUIS MONGE, THE POPULAR PRESIDENT ........................................... 195 7.4 ERNESTO PÉREZ, THE FAILED ATTEMPT........................................... 197 7.5 CONLUDING REMARKS ............................................................................ 201 8.0 PERSONALITY TRAITS IN ACTION ................................................................ 203 APPENDIX A ............................................................................................................................ 213 APPENDIX B ............................................................................................................................ 216 APPENDIX C ............................................................................................................................ 218 APPENDIX D ............................................................................................................................ 220 APPENDIX E ............................................................................................................................ 222 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................................... 225 viii LIST OF TABLES