MANX PEOPLE POWER SURVEY OF POLITICAL OPINION By HPI Research September 2011 SURVEY MANX PEOPLE POWER CONTENTS Page 3 Manx People Power Survey: Top 7 Action Points 4 Viewpoint by Simon Richardson 5 Why and how survey was carried out 6 Most important issues in next five years 7 Rating of Government performance 8 Majority dissatisfied with Chief Minister selection process 10 Views on VAT negotiations 12 Relationship with UK – lukewarm and worsening 14 How to make the Island’s voice heard at Westminster 16 How Manx people would vote in UK 18 Little voter support for Privatisation 19 Ramsey Pier – a polarising issue 20 Views by age group, gender, region, place of birth 22 IOM people among happiest in the world 23 Details of how research survey was structured Page 2 MANX PEOPLE POWER SURVEY Manx People Power Survey: Top 7 Action Points 1. Popular input to Chief Minister (CM) selection process 2. Mechanism requiring CM candidates to announce candidature, and national policies before general election 3. ... and to participate in public debates (as in UK and USA) 4. Hire specialist Political Lobbying Company, well-connected at top UK level 5. Opportunity to activate over half a million strong Manx supporters in UK 6. Consider IOM Referendum on VAT Agreement 7. Improve efficiency of Government spending and management of economy Page 3 SURVEY MANX PEOPLE POWER VIEWPOINT BY SIMON RICHARDSON A useful and overdue exercise that should be welcomed by politicians The People Power Survey, which was carried out by independent research company HPI Research under commission from local resident Professor Hugh Davidson represents the most comprehensive political research to have been undertaken in the Isle of Man for decades. Amazingly some 93 per cent of those questioned as part of the substantial survey said they had never before been asked for their views on important issues facing the Island. Politicians in the Isle of Man are not part of a party system. The majority of those who stand do so as independents. The type of research carried out in the People Power Survey should be welcomed by them all as a useful and meaningful window into the prevailing views of the electorate on a range of pressing issues; helping them make democracy work better within a non- party system. With an election just around the corner those standing for the House of Keys enter the contest knowing the mood of the nation, and what is expected of them from the people. A number of action points have been identified by the study, and it will be interesting in the coming months and years to see how many are acted upon – or at least debated. The election takes place on September 29th – let’s hope for a good turnout of voters and that those entrusted by the people can successfully steer the Island through what will be difficult times. HOW THE RESEARCH WAS CARRIED OUT By Alan Cooper, Executive Partner, HPI Research Ed: How reliable are the results from the survey? A: Extremely reliable. We know that the results that we obtained are within 3 percentage points of the true picture that we would achieve if we surveyed the entire population. UK opinion polls typically interview 1,000 people, to represent a universe of over 50 million adults. We interviewed a representative sample of 1055 IOM residents. Ed: How can the sample be representative when you didn’t talk to me? A: The sample is representative of the IOM population on all key factors – so, if we didn’t interview you, we did interview a large number of people probably quite like you! Ed: Were the questions ‘spun ‘to get the answers you wanted? A: Firstly neither Hugh Davidson, nor I, have any agenda for the survey other than wanting to find out what the Manx People think. Secondly, as an independent professional market researcher I follow the Market Research Society Code of Conduct, which guarantees that questions are asked in a completely fair way. Ed: How familiar are you with IOM? A: I have lived in Douglas since 2002. I am aware of the main issues on the Island, which helped me design the survey. Ed: Does the booklet contain the complete report? A: The booklet summarises the main findings. The full Report will be deposited in the Tynwald Library and the Manx Museum Library in October 2011. Page 4 MANX PEOPLE POWER SURVEY WHY WAS THIS RESEARCH SURVEY DONE? (Hugh Davidson questioned by Editor) Ed: What was the purpose of the research? HD: To establish what ordinary people (as opposed to vocal individuals or vested interests) think are the most important issues, how they can best be tackled, and to evaluate Government performance. This reliable evidence will provide politicians, civil servants, and members of the public with a precise map of what people think; and hopefully encourage wider debate on national issues, plus greater political participation. Ed: Is this the first political poll ever conducted in the Isle of Man? HD: Yes, although Liberal Vannin has, coincidentally with this survey, carried out research on a more restricted range of questions, using a reputable research company and reliable sample base. All good quality research is to be welcomed, since the IOM is one of the most under- researched countries in the West. Ed: Do you think it’s important to try and focus discussion on national rather than local issues? HD: Yes. Local issues matter to voters, but in this Election, with the VAT shadow overhead, there seems to be more emphasis on national issues, and this Research Survey is designed to support this. With small constituencies and easy access to MHKs, there can be disproportionate emphasis on local issues in General Elections. Ed: Do you think the IOM Government communicates its national policies clearly to the electorate? HD: The IOM is unusual in lacking political parties. This has many advantages. An important disadvantage is that national policies and priorities receive limited debate, and are not always clearly communicated to the general population. Ed: Who paid for this Survey? HD: I did. Ed: Why? HD: To stimulate debate, help chart a successful future for the Island, and increase Government accountability. Ed: Have you got a hidden agenda? HD: No. I am not standing for election, nor do I run a business on the Island. The only axe I have to grind is to help ensure the voice of the public is listened to, and acted upon. Page 5 SURVEY MANX PEOPLE POWER VAT AND RELATED FINANCIAL PROBLEMS ARE THE DOMINANT FUTURE ISSUES Most important issue facing IOM in next 5 years – spontaneous mentions over 4% ISSUE Total % Mentioning* VAT and related 50 issues Financial problems – 33 VAT general Spending cuts – 15 health, education, etc UK relationship 10 problems High/rising prices 9 Unemployment/loss 8 of jobs Poor 6 Government/need new leadership Interests for 4 young/leisure activities Immigration 4 Increase in taxation 4 *Some people mentioned more than one issue Comment: • The three primary issues are linked to the economy • VAT most important to men (57%) • AB social class attached relatively more importance to top three economic issues – 56% for VAT, 39% for financial problems, 21% for spending cuts • Few differences by geographical area, but spending cuts a relatively bigger issue in West (21%) Page 6 MANX PEOPLE POWER SURVEY VERY GOOD RATING FOR GOVERNMENT ON QUALITY OF LIFE, POOR ON VAT NEGOTIATIONS AND EFFICIENCY Government Ranking on Top 8 Performance Areas Rating Issue % Good % Poor Net Score % (Good minus Poor) ? Managing the Economy 41 26 +15 X VAT Agreement Negotiations 17 48 -31 Health 63 11 +52 Education 73 5 +68 X Efficiency of Government spending 23 40 -17 ? Relations with UK Government 36 26 +10 ? Immigration 31 23 +8 Quality of life 73 5 +68 Comment: • Government viewed as delivering very good result on Quality of Life – not only Health and Education, but also Social Services (+42% net score), Law & Order (+66%), and developing Manx culture/identity (+47%). • Clear dissatisfaction with VAT negotiations and efficiency of Government,. However dissatisfaction over VAT may relate more to the result of the negotiations than to the way they were handled by the IOM. • Over the years, the IOM Treasury Team appears to have operated very skilfully in open negotiations with the larger and better resourced UK. However, in the past 3 years, following the global financial crisis, the negotiating environment has become much less favourable. In a context where, over many years, the Island has failed to establish close political relationships with Downing Street, especially at Political Adviser Level, winning financial arguments has not been enough (see page 14). • Mixed views on Government performance on managing the economy, UK relations and immigration • Women and younger people aged 16-24 had the most favourable view of Government performance; men and the 45-59 age group had the least favourable view. • On balance, Government thought to have had ‘Good’ performance over past 5 years – with 32% saying ‘Good’, 24% ‘Poor’, 42% ‘About Average’, 2% ‘Don’t know’. Page 7 SURVEY MANX PEOPLE POWER MAJORITY OF PEOPLE VERY DISSATISFIED WI TH PROCESS FOR SELECTING CHIEF MINISTER • Nine out of ten know the Chief Minister (CM) is currently appointed following Tynwald vote • But 63% think CM should be selected by IOM electorate, versus 27% who favour a Tynwald vote. • An overwhelming 93% think CM prospects should declare their interests before the General Election, and 90% that they should be required to take part in public debates. Hon Allan Bell MHK Hon Anne Craine MHK Hon Steve Rodan SHK Peter Karran MHK Q.