Democracy Audit: Bolivia, 2002 by Mitchell A. Seligson Department of Political Science University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, Pa 15260 [email protected] Version 9 Report prepared for USAID, Bolivia November 24, 2002 Under Contract 511-0-00-99-00129-00 The Political Culture of Democracy in Bolivia: 2002 2 Contents Table of Contents INTRODUCTION: OVERVIEW OF BOLIVIAN POLITICS, 2000-2002 ..........9 CHAPTER I. METHODOLOGY AND SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS.......12 SAMPLE DESIGN ....................................................................................................................................................12 A SAMPLE DESIGN TO REPRESENT ALL VOTING-AGED BOLIVIANS ........................................................................12 REPRESENTING THE DEPARTMENTS IN THE NATIONAL SAMPLE: STRATIFICATION..................................................14 The Special Municipal Sample...........................................................................................................................17 SAMPLE WEIGHTS ...................................................................................................................................................18 SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES AFFECTING THE 2002 SAMPLE.......................................................................................20 SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS.............................................................................................................................20 CONCLUSIONS........................................................................................................................................................27 CHAPTER II. ELECTIONS AND DEMOCRACY ...........................................................28 TURNOUT .................................................................................................................................................................31 TURNOUT OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS ..............................................................................................................................31 CHARACTERISTICS OF VOTERS VERSUS NON-VOTERS.............................................................................................34 PARTY VOTING AND CITIZEN CHARACTERISTICS ...................................................................................43 DEMOGRAPHIC, ETHNIC, GEOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PARTY VOTERS ..................44 POLITICAL DIFFERENCES AMONG VOTERS..............................................................................................................52 DEMOCRATIC AND ANTI-DEMOCRATIC VALUES: VARIATION BY PARTY VOTE ......................................................55 THE “UNINOMINAL” DEPUTY ...........................................................................................................................57 SPLIT-TICKET VOTING.............................................................................................................................................58 PREFERENCES FOR THE SINGLE-MEMBER DISTRICT ................................................................................................59 CONCLUSIONS........................................................................................................................................................64 CHAPTER III. LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND DEMOCRACY.............................65 MUNICIPAL PARTICIPATION: NATIONAL RESULTS..................................................................................65 MUNICIPAL PARTICIPATION: THE IMPACT OF THE DDPC.....................................................................72 CONTROL VARIABLES .............................................................................................................................................74 MUNICIPAL MEETING PARTICIPATION: DDPC VS. THE NATION ..............................................................................75 DEMAND-MAKING: DDPC VS. THE NATION............................................................................................................76 SATISFACTION: DDPC VS. THE NATION ..................................................................................................................77 SATISFACTION WITH MUNICIPAL SERVICES: NATIONAL AND DDPC RESULTS .............................80 NATIONAL-LEVEL RESULTS ....................................................................................................................................80 DDPC VS. NATIONAL RESULTS...............................................................................................................................81 NATIONAL VS. LOCAL GOVERNMENT ...........................................................................................................86 NATIONAL SAMPLE COMPARISONS..........................................................................................................................86 WILLINGNESS TO PAY MORE TAXES .............................................................................................................89 RESPONSIVENESS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT..............................................................................................90 NATIONAL LEVEL RESULTS.....................................................................................................................................90 DDPC VS. THE NATION ...........................................................................................................................................91 THE GENDER GAP .................................................................................................................................................93 The Political Culture of Democracy in Bolivia: 2002 3 Contents CONCLUSIONS........................................................................................................................................................95 CHAPTER IV: SYSTEM SUPPORT AND DECENTRALIZATION..................96 THE THEORY OF DECENTRALIZATION: IMPACT ON DEMOCRACY...................................................96 SYSTEM SUPPORT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES .......................................................................................97 DECENTRALIZATION AND SYSTEM SUPPORT ...........................................................................................................99 DECENTRALIZATION IN BOLIVIA .................................................................................................................100 SYSTEM SUPPORT IN BOLIVIA........................................................................................................................107 CITIZEN VIEWS IN “CHANGE IN MAYOR” AND “SAME MAYOR” MUNICIPALITIES.....................109 MODELING CITIZEN LEVELS OF SYSTEM SUPPORT ................................................................................................114 THE IMPORTANCE OF THESE RESULTS FOR DECENTRALIZATION REFORM ...............................119 CHAPTER V. THE NEW CRIMINAL CODE .....................................................................120 THE NEW CODE OF CRIMINAL PROCEDURE (NCCP) ..............................................................................120 WHAT THE NEW CODE OF CRIMINAL PROCEDURE (NCPP) DOES .........................................................................121 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NEW CRIMINAL PROCEDURE CODE..............................................................................122 KNOWLEDGE OF THE NEW CRIMINAL CODE ...........................................................................................123 HOW KNOWLEDGE OF CODE WAS ACQUIRED .........................................................................................127 ATTENDING MEETINGS ON NEW CODE.......................................................................................................129 EVALUATION OF THE NEW CODE .................................................................................................................131 OPINION OF ORAL TRIALS .....................................................................................................................................131 TRIAL BY CITIZEN JUDGES.....................................................................................................................................132 RESPECTING THE PRESUMPTION OF INNOCENCE AND BAIL....................................................................................133 COMPARISON OF THE VARIOUS PROVISION OF THE NEW CRIMINAL CODE ............................................................134 CONCLUSIONS......................................................................................................................................................139 CHAPTER VI. SYSTEM SUPPORT AND TOLERANCE .........................................140 A LEADING INDICATOR OF STABLE DEMOCRACY..................................................................................140 SYSTEM SUPPORT ...............................................................................................................................................143 MEASUREMENT OF SYSTEM SUPPORT....................................................................................................................143 COMPARISONS 1998-2002 .....................................................................................................................................144 SYSTEM SUPPORT BY DEPARTMENT ......................................................................................................................146