Social Media Insights for the Pumpkin Spice Latte August 2015 Using social media data to explain the widespread success behind one of Starbucks’ best- selling seasonal flavor options. Request a demo at: http://infegy.comInfegy What’s inside this report The Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte created enormous demand for the Pumpkin Spice flavor profile of beverages. Using social commentary collected over the course of the past five years we propose to explain why the Starbuck’s brand of Pumpkin Spice Latte still towers above its closest competition. For many, the decision between branded versions of the Pumpkin Spice Latte is a combination choice between flavor, brand loyalty, and convenience. What trends might explain the difference in public perception? This report provides a quick look at the narrative behind seasonal beverages, highlighting specific examples of insights available beneath social media data. 2 PhotoRequest credit: Lisa a Suenderdemo /at: Flickr http://infegy.com Contents Introduction 2 Comparing Affinity by Gender 10 Contents 3 Understanding Category Themes 11 Comparing Purchase Behavior 12 Background 4 Uncovering Consumer Demographics 14 Mapping the Competitive Landscape 6 Conclusion 15 Understanding Consumer Perceptions 7 About Infegy 16 Identifying Geographical Preferences 8 References 18 3 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Background The Starbuck’s Pumpkin Spice latte has experienced incredible success since its introduction over a decade ago. In August 2014, Starbucks created a separate Twitter account just for the beverage to improve social engagement and establish their version as the one true Pumpkin Spice Latte. In 2013, Forbes highlighted the success of the Pumpkin Spice Latte1, pointing to a Starbucks news release which proclaimed the company has sold more than 200 million lattes. You can even follow Pumpkin Spice Latte on Twitter! 4 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Background At an estimated $4 per latte with more than 200 million sold2, Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte has generated a colossal $800 million in revenue since its creation. The seasonally-limited availability created anticipation for the drink in the months preceding its annual release, a model that competitors have been eager to copy. Demonstrated below in the topic cloud for online conversations related to pumpkin-flavored seasonal beverages, the flavor on its own is universally loved. Yet, even in non-brand related conversations, Starbucks is the only brand present to a large degree. 5 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Mapping The Competitive Landscape Conversations about pumpkin-flavored beverages begin increasing in Insight to Opportunity number starting in the July/August months, immediately before their While social traffic seems to spike for availability in September. each brand in the corresponding Fall seasons, Starbucks’ competitors could When it comes to the competitive landscape according to social media data, mimic the Pumpkin Spice Latte’s social Starbucks, Dunkin’ Donuts, and McDonald’s are the only brands with a notable advantages to take better advantage of amount of presence. this area and spread buzz about their Post Universe Spikes from January 2010 through July 2015 competing beverages. 6 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Understanding Consumer Perceptions Despite accusations in 2014 that the products contain unhealthy Insight to Opportunity ingredients, consumer sentiment for Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte remains overwhelmingly positive While each of the pumpkin-flavored seasonal beverages is discussed frequently on social media, sentiment for Sentiment Perception from January 2010 through July 2015 each brand varies wildly. Only Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte maintains an consistently positive sentiment value over time. Analyzing the conversations about Starbucks’ beverage can help competitors deploy similar marketing techniques. 7 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Identifying Geographical Preferences In analyzing social commentary by US region, several advantages are Insight to Opportunity evident. In order to remain a leader of the pumpkin-spice beverages, Starbucks Throughout the Midwest and Western coast, Starbucks and McCafé receive a should be wary of growing concentrations significantly higher number of conversations. By contrast, Dunkin’ Donuts has a that might rival their regional strongholds. much larger concentration of social conversation in the Northeast United States. Analyzing data specific to geographies also provides the potential to uncover differing taste preferences and brand weaknesses specific to individual markets or regions. 8 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Identifying Geographical Preferences Dunkin’ Donuts is a national chain, yet the majority of conversations about Insight to Opportunity the brand occur in the Northeast. By comparing Infegy Atlas results to Just as analyzing data specific to Google Maps location data, it becomes clear that this is a result of Dunkin’ geographies can uncover differing taste Donuts lacking greater retail presence along the Western US coast. preferences and brand weaknesses, it can Google Maps Infegy Atlas also aid in pinpointing where to open new franchises. 9 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Comparing Affinity by Gender Looking at the demographic data related to gender, we can see the most- Insight to Opportunity engaged coffee consumers among social media conversation are women. Starbucks currently maintains the advantage in audience gender diversity across the three major pumpkin-flavored seasonal brands. One potential way to increase their market share might be to attract a more male- centric audience to even out gender Branded Audience Engagement distribution. Across Gender Lines 10 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Understanding Category Themes Combined theme analysis is useful in understanding the deeper themes of Insight to Opportunity the digital conversation. While Expectation, Taste, and Acquisition are generally the most In looking at the combined themes for our three brands, over half of mentioned themes by share of voice, conversations reflected some degree of Expectation. The next three emotions Acquisition and Cost are the most expressed reflect Taste, Acquisition, and Quality, present in 44%, 41%, and 25% of negatively discussed, at 36% and 37%, digital conversations, respectively. respectively. Combined Theme Analysis of Pumpkin Beverages This means that 36% of consumers have stated that they will never buy a seasonal beverage and 37% have a negative perspective towards their cost. 11 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Comparing Purchase Behavior When analyzed on their own, each brand receives 30-40% negativity Insight to Opportunity concerning the cost of pumpkin-flavored seasonal beverages. Each of the seasonal beverage brands demonstrates somewhere above 30% Interestingly, Starbucks maintains the least amount of negativity concerning negativity regarding Cost of these Acquisition (or purchasing) at 27%. Dunkin’ Donuts and McCafé represent higher beverages. rates of negativity at 43% and 40%, respectively. Interestingly, consumers discussing Starbucks’ brand in particular mention not buying, or never buying, pumpkin lattes to a far lesser degree than for other brands. This may explain the somewhat higher consistent post volume and higher overall sentiment. 12 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Comparing Purchase Intent Similar to the Acquisition theme, Purchase Intent is accompanied with Insight to Opportunity varying degrees of positivity and negativity. McCafé customers tend to discuss their intent to purchase, or not purchase, to a In this category, Starbucks also tends to exceed levels of positive purchase intent far greater degree than Starbucks and for its competitors. Significantly, nearly a quarter of digital conversation sources Dunkin’ Donuts customers. relate to Dunkin’ Donuts and McCafé with commentary indicating they will never purchase from these brands. Starbucks could use this information to mirror social strategies deployed by McCafé in order to capture additional brand momentum, converting a greater 76% 82% 69% degree of their volume to beverage sales. 37% 31% 24% 25% 18% 18% Purchase Intent (PI) PI Negativity PI Positivity 13 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Uncovering Consumer Demographics According to a correlation between social location data and U.S. Census Insight to Opportunity Data, the average pumpkin spice latte consumer has nearly $7000 in Revisiting geographic data, the results for additional household income compared to the general population. Dunkin’ Donuts may be influenced by the U.S. Demographics Comparison concentration of franchises in the Northeast, which typically has a higher degree of wealth. What is clear from analyzing this U.S. demographic data correlation is that McDonald’s is failing to attract consumers Combined Household Income Comparison of pumpkin spice lattes who have higher incomes to their particular McCafe offering. 14 Request a demo at: http://infegy.com Conclusion When analyzed with proper subject application, online conversations can explain the differences in public perception. The decision between branded versions of Pumpkin Spice Latte depend on a variety of factors, including geographic preferences, demographic brand loyalty, and perceived quality or flavor. The examples in this report demonstrated how online conversation data can be used to: 1. Map the Competitive Landscape 2. Understand Consumer Perceptions 3. Identify and Strategize