The echoes of international intervention on post-civil war democracy A Qualitative Study Siddhartha Kumar Dhar Department of Peace and Conflict Research Peace and Conflict Studies C Uppsala University Bachelor Thesis Supervisor: Henrik Angerbrandt Table of Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Research Question ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 The purpose and importance of the study ............................................................................................ 1 1.3 Previous research, gaps and findings .................................................................................................... 2 2. Theory ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1Theories pertaining to the research topic .............................................................................................. 5 2.2 Theoretical claim .................................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Arrow diagrams illustrating the proposed theory ................................................................................. 7 2.4 Definition of key concepts ..................................................................................................................... 8 2.5 Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................................ 9 3. Research Design .................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Operationalisation of independent and dependent variables ............................................................ 10 3.2 Mediating variables ............................................................................................................................. 11 3.3 Method of qualitative analysis ............................................................................................................. 12 3.4 Cases and case selection ...................................................................................................................... 12 3.5 Sources of empirical data.....................................................................................................................13 3.6 Control variables...................................................................................................................................13 4. Results and Analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………14 4.1 Empirical patterns observed in the empirical material ....................................................................... 14 4.2 Empirical consistency with the hypotheses ......................................................................................... 24 4.3 Responses to potential objections……………………………………………………………………………………………………27 4.4 An alternative explanation……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….28 5. Summary and Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 29 5.1 Main conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 29 5.2 Policy implications ............................................................................................................................... 30 6. Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….31 1. Introduction 1.1 Research Question How does the engagement from international actors in civil wars shape the post-conflict democratic trajectories of a state? 1.2 The purpose and importance of the study The purpose of the study is to investigate the political implications the involvement of international actors in civil wars has on the post-conflict democratisation of a state. Post-conflict democratisation remains a puzzle that continues to elude peace researchers. Despite widespread efforts, often both from international and domestic actors, very few societies emerging from a civil war experience democratisation in the post-conflict phase, and even fewer morph into full democracies (Grimm and Weiffen, 2018). Much of the scholarly literature on post-conflict democratisation focuses on the post-conflict dynamics that shape the democratic trajectories of a country. Little attention has been given, so far, to the civil war traits that could possibly influence the post-conflict democratic progress. Previous research on civil wars found little evidence that could link the conflict with post-conflict democracy. However, with the recent growth in scholarly work in this field, there are emerging signs indicating how civil war traits leave residuals that mould the post-conflict political configuration of a country. This study will attempt to link one of the most common civil war traits, international engagement, with post-conflict democratisation. Most civil wars experience international involvement of some kind—which run the spectrum from direct military intervention to acting as mediators. While the literature on post-conflict democratisation mostly focuses on the post- conflict phase, the literature on international intervention concentrates primarily on its effect on the conflict outcome. However, if the impact of foreign intervention in an intrastate conflict reverberates beyond the conflict-termination stage, how does it bode for the future democratic trajectories of a society? An answer to this pertinent question will not only provide a vital clue in solving the puzzle why post-conflict democratisation fails in some cases and why it succeeds in others but also bridge the existent lacuna between the scholarship on international intervention and post-conflict democratisation. 1 1.3 Previous research, gaps and findings Both the research on post-conflict democratisation and international intervention constitute parts of the broader literature on civil wars which is segmented in different research avenues. Because of such segmentation, very little attention has been given on the civil war–democracy link. Most of the research investigations conducted on post-conflict democratisation focus on the post- conflict dynamics that influence the outcome of democratisation efforts. While a few have linked post-conflict democratisation to the civil-war outcome, even fewer linked it to the civil war traits during the conflict-phase. Mross (2019), for example, looked at the post-civil war dynamics by comparing the effectiveness of the different strategies international actors often employ in fostering peace in a post-conflict society. Notably, she examines the efficacy of the two approaches, the prioritisation and gradualist approach. She concludes that the gradualist approach, which promotes both peace and democracy simultaneously, is most apt in cultivating peace in a post-conflict setting. In doing so, the author assumes a contrarian position to the mainstream view among peace researchers which espouses prioritising peace over democracy. Based on the comparative study she conducted in Burundi and Nepal, Mross (2019) argues that when peace is prioritised over democracy, the violation of many democratic procedures—such as election fraud—is overlooked; it then impedes both the flourishment of peace and democracy in the long run. She also found that when power is concentrated in the hands of a few elites, it derails the peace initiative. This particular finding is pertinent in answering our research question. Later we will see that, in most cases, whether political power is concentrated or dispersed after a civil war, is influenced by the conflict outcome. In his quantitative study on the linkage between civil war outcome and the success probability of post-conflict democratisation, Nilsson (2012) found that civil war outcome bears critical political implications for the post-conflict society. He found that when conflicts end in negotiated settlements, the prospects of democratisation are brighter. A negotiated settlement guards the political power against becoming concentrated in the hands of a few political actors or a party. On the contrary, when a conflict ends in a military victory, it leads the victorious party to seize political power who base their legitimacy of holding onto political power on their battleground performance and resist any democratic practices, such as holding national elections, lest it would 2 threaten their hegemony over political power. Based on the research findings, Nilsson (2012) came to the conclusion that when the aim is to foster democracy in a post-conflict society, a negotiated settlement is the best method to terminate a conflict. A similar earlier study conducted by Gurses and Mason (2008) also found support for the proposition that negotiated agreements that bring an end to civil wars are conducive towards higher levels of post-conflict democratisation; in contrast, they found that when civil wars end in military victories, the post- conflict society experiences lower levels of democratisation. Both the studies on the linkage between civil war outcome and post-conflict democratisation (Grimm and Weiffen, 2018; Nilsson, 2012), therefore, corroborates