CAMBODIA DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND GOVERNANCE ASSESSMENT FINAL ASSESSMENT REPORT April 2019 This publication was prepared by NORC and Social Impact Inc. and authored by Suzanne Kelly-Lyall, Neil Loughlin, and Kimchoeun Pak. It was produced at the request of the United States Agency for International Development. CAMBODIA DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS, AND GOVERNANCE ASSESSMENT FINAL ASSESSMENT REPORT April 2019 DRG Learning, Evaluation, and Research (LER) II Activity Tasking N002 GS-10F-0033M / 7200AA18M00016 Cover Photo Credit: Nicole Goodrich DISCLAIMER The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i FINDINGS ii ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS vi INTRODUCTION 1 ASSESSMENT PURPOSE 1 METHODOLOGY: THE STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK 1 ASSESSMENT CONTEXT 3 STEP 1: DEFINING THE DRG CHALLENGE: FIVE DRG ELEMENTS 18 CONSENSUS 19 INCLUSION 21 COMPETITION AND POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY 25 HUMAN RIGHTS AND RULE OF LAW 29 GOVERNMENT RESPONSIVENESS AND EFFECTIVENESS 34 SUMMARY 36 STEP 2: ANALYZING KEY ACTORS AND INSTITUTIONS 37 THE SPOILERS 38 INDEPENDENT POLITICAL ACTORS 42 STEP 3: USAID’S OPERATIONAL/ PROGRAMMATIC ENVIRONMENT 46 U.S. FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD CAMBODIA 46 USAID PRIORITIES, INTERESTS, AND RESOURCES 47 STEP 4: OUTLINING THE PROPOSED STRATEGY 52 SUMMARIZING STEPS 1 TO 3: THE PROBLEM STATEMENT 52 DRG OBJECTIVE 52 ANNEXES 61 ANNEX A: DONOR MATRIX 61 ANNEX B: KEY INFORMANT INTERVIEW AND FOCUS GROUP LIST 65 ANNEX C: RESEARCH INSTRUMENT 77 ANNEX D: LITERATURE REVIEW 83 ANNEX E: BIBLIOGRAPHY 109 TABLES Table 1: Cambodia's Top Export and Import Partners, 2017 ............................................................................... 41 FIGURES Figure 1: World Economic Forum Gender Gap, 2018 ............................................................................................. 9 Figure 2: Population with Internet Access in Cambodia (2010 - 2018) ............................................................. 10 Figure 3: Migration Patterns in Cambodia (2013 vs. 2018) ................................................................................... 11 Figure 4: ADB and World Bank Estimates of 2018 GDP Growth....................................................................... 13 Figure 5: UNDP Human Development Index, 2017................................................................................................ 14 Figure 6: Polity Data Series, Mekong Countries, 2018 ........................................................................................... 15 Figure 7: Bertelsmann Stiftung's Transformation Index, Governance, 2018 ..................................................... 15 Figure 8: Transparency International CPI, 2018 ....................................................................................................... 16 Figure 9: World Press Freedom Index, 2018 ............................................................................................................ 17 Figure 10: Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2018 .................................................................................... 17 Figure 11: Self-Reliance Metrics: Inclusive Development ....................................................................................... 23 Figure 12: Self-Reliance Metrics: Open and Accountable Government ............................................................. 26 Figure 13: V-dem Civil Society Capacity 2018 .......................................................................................................... 29 Figure 14: V-Democracy Cambodia Indicators (2013 - 2018) .............................................................................. 30 Figure 15: Significant Political Events in Cambodia since 2015 ............................................................................. 32 Figure 16: Violations of Fundamental Freedoms, April 2017 – March 2018 ..................................................... 33 ACRONYMS Acronym Name ADB Asian Development Bank ADHOC Cambodia Human Rights and Development Association ADS Automated Directives System AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank API Advocacy and Policy Institute ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations AT Assessment Team BLDP Buddhist Liberal Democratic Party BTI Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index CAO Compliance Advisor Ombudsman CBO Community-Based Organization CCHR Cambodian Center for Human Rights CDCS Country Development Cooperation Strategy CDRI Cambodian Development Resource Institute CICP Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace CLC Cambodia Labor Confederation CNRP Cambodia National Rescue Party COMFREL Commitment for Free and Fair Elections in Cambodia CPP Cambodia People’s Party CSO Civil Society Organization C-TIP Counter Trafficking in Persons DO Development Objective DOS United States Department of State DRG Democracy, Rights, and Governance EBA Everything but Arms EC Equitable Cambodia ERI Earth Rights International EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment FGD Focus Group Discussion FTUWKC Free Trade Union of Workers of Kingdom of Cambodia FUNCINPEC National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful, and Cooperative Cambodia GADC Gender and Development for Cambodia GDP Grassroots Democracy Party GDP Gross Domestic Product HRP Human Rights Party HRW Human Rights Watch ICJ International Committee of Jurists ICNL Civic Freedom Monitor IFES International Federation for Electoral Systems IFI Independent Financial Institutions ILO International Labor Organization INGO International Non-Governmental Organization IP Implementing Partner IRI International Republican Institute I-SAF Implementation Plan – Social Accountability Framework KI Key Informant KII Key Informant Interview KYA Khmer Youth Association LANGO Law on Associations and Non-governmental Organizations LDP League for Democracy Party LER Learning, Evaluation, and Research LFPR Labor Force Participation Rate LGBT Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender LICADHO Cambodian League for the Promotion and Defense of Human Rights MDB Multilateral Development Bank MFI Micro-finance Institution MIRO Minority Rights Organization MOC Ministry of Commerce MOE Ministry of Environment MOFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs MOI Ministry of the Interior MOL Ministry of Labor MP Member of Parliament NDI National Democratic Institute NEC National Election Committee NGO Non-Governmental Organization NORC National Opinion Research Center NRM Natural Resource Management ODA Official Development Assistance ODC Open Development Cambodia OHCHR Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights PAD Project Appraisal Document PE Political Economy PEA Political Economy Analysis PM Prime Minister PR Public Relations RFA Radio Free Asia RGC Royal Government of Cambodia ROI Return on Investment ROL Rule of Law SADP Southeast Asia Development Program SAF Strategic Assessment Framework SI Social Impact TI Transparency International TUL Trade Union Law UK United Kingdom UPR Universal Periodic Review U.S. United States USAID United States Agency for International Development USD United States Dollar USDAO U.S. Defense Attaché Office Cambodia USG United States Government UYFC Union Youth Federations of Cambodia VOA Voice of America WFP World Food Program EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This assessment reflects on recent changes in the democracy, human rights, and governance (DRG) operating environment in Cambodia. Following the four-step process outlined in USAID’s Strategic Assessment Framework (SAF), this assessment defines the core democracy, human rights, and governance problem(s) in Cambodia, identifies the interests and resources of key actors and institutions that could promote or inhibit progress toward democratization, and considers the United States Government’s (USG) current operational and programmatic environment in Cambodia. Second, it provides clear and actionable strategic and programmatic recommendations to address the identified core governance problem. The assessment focuses on the last five years (2013-2018) and identifies areas of continuity and change. The Assessment Team (AT) concludes that unlike historical periods of constriction and détente enacted by the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen, this period (2013-2018) is different. It is marked by the growing economic and political influence of China, as a powerful, coercive regional power. For this reason, a core issue explored in this assessment is that of China’s mounting political and economic influence on Cambodia and the ways in which this influence actively discourages a rules and rights-based approach to governance. We argue that the ‘rules of the game’ have changed, creating a political landscape now best characterized as a two-level game where all domestic policy consideration of the Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) now have a secondary foreign policy consideration.1 In light of the democratic backsliding and U.S. government policy decisions, programmatic options are limited; however, strategic program recommendations offered in this assessment account for this change by encouraging investment in key actors (i.e., women , youth, and workers) with the aim of building effective coalitions that can advocate for ‘win-sets’ that counter the ‘Chinese development’ model and encourage political competition and great accountability by the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP). The last USAID Cambodia DRG assessment was conducted in 2014.