CNN 2020 NH Primary Poll February 8, 2020 SANDERS HOLDS SLIM LEAD IN NH OVER RISING BUTTIGIEG; BIDEN AND WARREN SLIP By: Sean P. McKinley, M.A. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603-862-2226 Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center DURHAM, NH – Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders holds a slim lead over former South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Bu gieg among likely Democra c voters in New Hampshire. Support for the pair has increased considerably since July 2019. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachuse s Senator Elizabeth Warren, who trail the pair, have lost significant ground. A majority of Democra c primary voters expect Sanders to win the NH primary and a plurality say he has the best chance to win in November. Only half of likely Democra c voters have definitely decided whom to support. These findings are based on the latest CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred fi een (715) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between February 4 and February 7, 2020. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.7 percent. Included in the sample were 365 likely 2020 Democra c Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5.1 percent) and 203 likely 2020 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.9 percent). Trend points prior to July 2019 reflect results from the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 2020 Democra c Primary Just over half of likely Democra c primary voters (51%) say they have definitely decided whom they will support in the upcoming New Hampshire presiden al primary, a substan al increase since January 2020 (31%). Thirty percent say they are leaning towards someone, while 19% say they are s ll trying to decide. Among likely Democra c primary voters, 58% of registered Democrats say they have definitely decided while slightly fewer voters registered as undeclared (44%) feel this way. Definitely Decided on Candidate - Democra c Primary Voters - February 4-7, 2020 100% 94% 91% 85% 87% 80% 77% 78% 60% 64% 57% 51% 49% 40% 23% 31% 20% 30% 20% 14% 19% 13% 21% 20% 10% 8% 16% 5% 9% 0% 4% 5% 8% 5% Oct 2017 Feb 2018 Apr 2018 Aug 2018 Feb 2019 Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 4-7 2020 Definitely Decided Leaning Towards Someone Still Trying To Decide * We ask that this copyrighted informa on be referred to as the CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. If the 2020 New Hampshire Democra c primary were held today, 28% of likely primary voters say they would vote for Sanders, 21% would vote for Bu gieg, 11% would vote for Biden, and 9% would vote for Warren. Six percent say they would vote for Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, 5% would vote for Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, 3% each would vote for entrepreneur Andrew Yang or businessman Tom Steyer, 2% would vote for former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and 1% would vote for another candidate. Eleven percent of likely Democra c primary voters say they are undecided. Preferred Democra c 2020 Presiden al Nomina on Candidate - February 4-7, 2020 Bernie Sanders 28% Pete Buttigieg 21% Joe Biden 11% Elizabeth Warren 9% Tulsi Gabbard 6% Amy Klobuchar 5% Andrew Yang 3% Tom Steyer 3% Michael Bloomberg 2% Other 1% Undecided 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Preferred Democra c 2020 Presiden al Nomina on Candidate - October 2017 to February 4-7, 2020 40% Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg 35% 35% Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren 31% 31% 30% 30% Tulsi Gabbard 30% 28% Amy Klobuchar 29% 26% Andrew Yang 24% 25% 25% Tom Steyer 24% 24% 21% 21% Michael Bloomberg 19% 20% 22% 19% Michael Bennet 18% 18% Deval Patrick 19% 16% 15% 14% 15% Undecided 15% 17% 15% 13% 15% 12% 10% 11% 12% 12% 10% 10% 11% 12% 10% 10% 9% 6% 9% 8% 5% 6% 7% 5% 5% 5% 2% 3% 4% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%1% 2% 0% 1% 0%0% 0% 0% Oct 2017 Feb 2018 Apr 2018 Aug 2018 Feb 2019 Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 4-7 2020 Because Michael Bloomberg is not running in the New Hampshire primary, his name was not included in the list of candidates who were read aloud. However, responses from those who volunteered Bloomberg as their choice are included. Michael Bennet and Deval Patrick were included in the read list of candidates but did not receive support from any respondents. Since January, support for Bu gieg has increased by 6 percentage points, while support for Sanders has also increased (+3). Support for Biden has declined (-5) during that me. Change in Preferred Democra c Candidate from January 2020 to February 4-7, 2020 Pete Buttigieg 6% Bernie Sanders 3% Tom Steyer 1% Michael Bloomberg 1% Tulsi Gabbard 0% Amy Klobuchar -1% Andrew Yang -2% Elizabeth Warren -2% Joe Biden -5% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Among likely Democra c voters who are self-described liberals, 49% support Sanders, 19% support Bu gieg, 15% support Warren, and 5% support Biden. Sanders con nues to consolidate his advantage in this group, having increased his share of these voters by 10 percentage points since January, while Bu gieg (+7%) has seen a slightly smaller gain among liberals. Warren (-6) and Biden (-6) meanwhile have seen their support among this group decline since January. Among self-described moderates and conserva ves, 24% support Bu gieg, 15% support Biden, 13% support Sanders, and 8% each support Gabbard and Klobuchar. Bu gieg is now the favorite candidate among this group, with his share of these voters having increased by 6 percentage points since January. Biden (-5) has seen his support among moderates and conserva ves decline since January, when he and Bu gieg were virtually ed in support among this group. Preferred Democra c Candidate by Ideology - February 4-7, 2020 Bernie Sanders 49% (10%) Pete Buttigieg 19% (7%) Elizabeth Warren 15% (-6%) Joe Biden 5% (-6%) Liberal Amy Klobuchar 2% (-2%) Andrew Yang 1% (0%) Tom Steyer 1% (1%) Michael Bloomberg 0% (0%) Pete Buttigieg 24% (6%) Joe Biden 15% (-5%) Bernie Sanders 13% (0%) Tulsi Gabbard 8% (0%) Moderate or Amy Klobuchar 8% (-1%) Conservative Elizabeth Warren 5% (0%) Tom Steyer 4% (0%) Andrew Yang 4% (-4%) Michael Bloomberg 3% (1%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Support for Sanders is largely concentrated among younger voters, par cularly female voters under the age of thirty-five, six in ten (60%) of whom support Sanders. Sanders also enjoys robust support and leads the field among men aged thirty-fi y to forty-nine, though by a smaller margin than among younger voters. Bu gieg's support is more balanced; he leads the field among women aged fi y to sixty-four and among all voters aged sixty-five and older but is well behind Sanders among men and women under thirty-five. No more than 10% of any voters under the age of fi y support Biden. Nearly a quarter of women aged sixty-five and older support Biden, his largest support among any one group. Warren by contrast, enjoys more support among those under fi y, but is no higher than third among any of these groups. Preferred Democra c Candidate by Gender and Age - February 4-7, 2020 Women Men Bernie Sanders 60% 44% Pete Buttigieg 10% 21% 18 to 34 Elizabeth Warren 13% 9% Joe Biden 10% 10% Bernie Sanders 28% 39% Pete Buttigieg 25% 21% 35 to 49 Elizabeth Warren 17% 12% Joe Biden 6% 5% Amy Klobuchar 6% Pete Buttigieg 22% 18% Bernie Sanders 12% 22% 50 to 64 Joe Biden 9% 10% Amy Klobuchar 10% 8% Elizabeth Warren 6% 4% Pete Buttigieg 29% 24% Joe Biden 22% 19% 65 and older Bernie Sanders 13% 6% Elizabeth Warren 8% 10% Amy Klobuchar 8% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Sanders leads Bu gieg among men and women without a college degree. Bu gieg leads Sanders among women with a college degree or more educa on, and nearly equals Sanders among men with a college degree or more. Biden is slightly more popular than Warren among women without a college degree while Warren is slightly more popular than Biden among women with a college degree. Preferred Democra c Candidate by Educa on and Gender - February 4-7, 2020 Women Men No College Bernie Sanders 30% 34% Degree Pete Buttigieg 19% 19% Joe Biden 14% 9% Elizabeth Warren 7% 7% Amy Klobuchar 6% 2% College Pete Buttigieg 25% 24% Degree or Bernie Sanders 18% 26% More Elizabeth Warren 15% 11% Joe Biden 10% 12% Amy Klobuchar 7% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% While Warren trails her top rivals in first-choice support, she holds a clear lead when likely Democra c primary voters are asked whom they would support if their preferred candidate were not on the ballot. Twenty-two percent say they would support Warren if this were the case, 15% would support Bu gieg, 13% would support Sanders, 12% would support Biden, and 10% would support Klobuchar. Less than 10% say their second choice would be Yang (7%), Gabbard (5%), Steyer (2%), Bloomberg (1%), Colorado Senator Michael Bennet (1%), former Massachuse s Governor Deval Patrick (<1%), or someone else (1%) as their second choice.