RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE SOUTH Marilyn A. Brown,1 Etan Gumerman,2 Youngsun Baek,1 Joy Wang,1 Cullen Morris,2 and Yu Wang1 Sponsored by: Energy Foundation Kresge Foundation Turner Foundation Published by: Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance Atlanta, GA December 2010 1Georgia Institute of Technology 2Duke University RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE SOUTH – December 2010 ii RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE SOUTH – December 2010 Contents RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE SOUTH ...................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................ ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. xi 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 THE CURRENT STATUS OF RENEWABLE POWER IN THE SOUTH ............................................ 2 1.2 RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS AND POLICIES IN THE SOUTH .......................................... 9 1.3 NOTABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS AND PROGRAMS IN THE SOUTH .................... 11 1.4 BARRIERS TO RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE SOUTH ............................................................... 12 2. METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................................... 15 2.1 MODELING RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES IN THE SOUTH ............................................ 15 2.2 NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM (NEMS) ...................................................................... 15 2.2.1 The Reference Scenario ............................................................................................................ 16 2.3 DEFINITION OF RENEWABLE RESOURCE POTENTIAL ............................................................. 17 2.3.1 Levelized Costs and other Cost-Effectiveness Tests ................................................................ 17 2.4 SCENARIOS ..................................................................................................................................... 18 2.5 SCENARIO: EXPANDED RENEWABLES ....................................................................................... 18 2.6 SCENARIO: RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY STANDARD ................................................................. 20 2.7 SCENARIO: CARBON CONSTRAINED FUTURE ........................................................................... 20 3. WIND POWER ........................................................................................................................................ 23 3.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 23 3.2 WIND POWER IN THE SOUTH ....................................................................................................... 23 3.3 BARRIERS, DRIVERS, AND POLICIES .......................................................................................... 24 3.4 EXPANDED WIND ............................................................................................................................ 26 3.4.1 The Case for Expanded Wind .................................................................................................... 26 3.4.2 Modeling Scenario Assumptions ................................................................................................ 28 3.5 EXPANDED WIND SCENARIO RESULTS ...................................................................................... 29 3.6 COST EFFECTIVENESS.................................................................................................................. 30 3.7 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................ 31 4. BIOPOWER ............................................................................................................................................ 33 4.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 33 4.2 BIOPOWER IN THE SOUTH ............................................................................................................ 33 4.3 BARRIERS, DRIVERS, AND POLICIES .......................................................................................... 35 4.4 EXPANDED BIOPOWER.................................................................................................................. 38 iii RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE SOUTH – December 2010 4.4.1 The Case for Expanded Biopower ............................................................................................. 38 4.4.2 Modeling Scenario Assumptions ................................................................................................ 38 4.5 EXPANDED BIOPOWER SCENARIO RESULTS ............................................................................ 41 4.5.1 Potential from Financial Incentive Policy ................................................................................... 41 4.5.2 Supportive R&D ......................................................................................................................... 41 4.5.3 Improved Feedstock Supply ...................................................................................................... 42 4.5.4 Expanded Biopower Scenario .................................................................................................... 43 4.6 COST EFFECTIVENESS.................................................................................................................. 45 4.7 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................ 45 5. MUNICIPAL WASTE ............................................................................................................................... 47 5.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 47 5.2 LANDFILL GAS IN THE SOUTH ...................................................................................................... 47 5.3 BARRIERS, DRIVERS, AND POLICIES .......................................................................................... 49 5.4 EXPANDED MSW POWER .............................................................................................................. 50 5.4.1 The Case for Expanded MSW Power ........................................................................................ 50 5.4.2 Modeling Assumptions ............................................................................................................... 50 5.5 EXPANDED MSW SCENARIO RESULTS ....................................................................................... 51 5.6 COST EFFECTIVENESS.................................................................................................................. 51 5.7 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................ 51 6. HYDROPOWER ...................................................................................................................................... 53 6.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 53 6.2 HYDROPOWER IN THE SOUTH ..................................................................................................... 54 6.3 BARRIERS, DRIVERS, AND POLICIES .......................................................................................... 56 6.4 EXPANDED HYDROPOWER ........................................................................................................... 57 6.4.1 The Case for Expanded Hydropower ......................................................................................... 57 6.4.2 Modeling Scenario Assumptions ................................................................................................ 59 6.5 EXPANDED HYDROPOWER SCENARIO RESULTS ..................................................................... 60 6.6 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................ 61 7. SOLAR POWER AND THERMAL ENERGY .......................................................................................... 63 7.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 63 7.2 SOLAR POWER IN THE SOUTH ..................................................................................................... 65 7.2.1 Utility-Scale Solar Power ............................................................................................................ 66 7.2.2 Demand-Side Solar Technologies ............................................................................................. 66 7.3 BARRIERS, DRIVERS, AND POLICIES .......................................................................................... 67 7.4 THE CASE FOR EXPANDED SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS .............................................................. 70 iv