Towards a Transdisciplinary Approach to Rural Electrification Planning for Universal Access in India by Yael Borofsky B.S. Human Development, Cornell University, 2009 Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning and the Engineering Systems Division in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degrees of Master in City Planning and Master of Science in Technology and Policy at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June 2015 © 2015 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All Rights Reserved. Signature of Author ................................................................................................................................................................... Department of Urban Studies and Planning Engineering Systems Division May 15, 2015 Certified by ..................................................................................................................................................................................... Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga Visiting Professor, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Thesis Supervisor Certified by ..................................................................................................................................................................................... Gabriella Carolini Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Studies and Planning Thesis Supervisor Accepted by ................................................................................................................................................................................... Professor Dennis Frenchman Chair, MCP Committee Department of Urban Studies and Planning Accepted by ................................................................................................................................................................................... Dava Newman Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Engineering Systems Director, Technology and Policy Program — 2 — Towards a Transdisciplinary Approach to Rural Electrification Planning for Universal Access in India by Yael Borofsky Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning and to the Engineering Systems Division on May 15, 2015 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degrees of Master in City Planning and Master of Science in Technology and Policy ABSTRACT Around 30% of India’s roughly 1.2 billion people lack access to electricity, largely in rural areas. National and state rural electrification efforts are predominantly focused on grid extension, but interest in off-grid systems, like solar home systems and microgrids, for rural areas has been growing. Little policy or regulation dictates off-grid electrification and detailed data about customers’ needs are hard to access, making it difficult for planners to determine the best electrification mode for a given area. New planning approaches are needed in the face of these challenges. Technoeconomic planning methods typically dominate rural electrification planning, yet many obstacles face rural electrification planners that are not technoeconomic. This thesis posits that combining the best aspects of technocratic and communicative planning into a transdisciplinary planning methodology will allow planners in India to incorporate technoeconomic, socioeconomic, sociotechnical, social, political, and regulatory factors that influence rural electrification into a single comprehensive approach to regional rural electrification planning in India. I propose and demonstrate three elements of this overarching methodology. First, I attempt to elicit planners’ perspectives on rural electrification planning priorities in India through semi-structured interviews (n = 6) and a pilot survey (n = 10). Second, I discuss the importance of understanding consumer electricity needs and demonstrate how electricity demand is both a technoeconomic and non-technoeconomic factor that influences rural electrification. Third, I show how a technoeconomic electrification planning model, called the Reference Electrification Model (REM), can illuminate the consequences of different assumptions about electricity demand on technology decisions for Vaishali District in the state of Bihar. This research emphasizes the variety of perspectives and dynamics that influence rural electrification planning and reflects on the challenges of developing a truly transdisciplinary rural electrification planning methodology for India. Thesis Co-supervisor: Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga Title: Visiting Professor, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Thesis Co-supervisor: Gabriella Carolini Title: Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Studies and Planning — 3 — < — 4 — ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS During my first week at MIT, my academic advisor, Steve Hammer, gave me some advice about how to prioritize my time at a school that institutionally describes itself as a fire hose. He said (roughly), do the things here that you cannot do anywhere else; study things here that you cannot learn anywhere else. I’m happy and grateful to say that I not only used his advice, but it worked. So, I want to thank the people who helped me live this wisdom. I came to MIT wanting to study electricity access and I am forever indebted to Professor Ignacio Pérez- Arriaga for taking a chance on a non-engineer. I know that supervising a DUSPer has not been straightforward, but your patience, persistence, and creativity have helped me to do my best to make a contribution to this problem and your research team. I could not have gained as much from my time here, and from the process of writing this thesis, without your guidance and commitment to this topic. To Professor Gabriella Carolini, thank you for taking on an unconventional thesis advisee. I am so grateful for your insightful feedback, personal honesty, and insistence that I constantly challenge my assumptions. Your influence has not only shaped my thesis, but helped me think more clearly about my future, as well. Dr. Rob Stoner, your immense knowledge of energy and development, encouragement of my many ideas, and unwavering support of this research have enabled me to realize many of my goals for my time at MIT. Thank you for continually looking out for me. I also want to thank Dr. Steve Hammer, Professor Judy Layzer, and Professor Larry Susskind, who all went beyond the call of duty to share their wisdom and experience in various ways that have enriched my theory of practice in work and in life. My friend Zak wrote that it takes a village to write a thesis (yes, Zak, I read your thesis) and in my case, it really did. Several, in fact. A heartfelt thank you to all of the people in Bihar, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Delhi who opened their homes and offices to us, answered our occasionally obtuse questions with patience and good humor, and shared their diverse perspectives on rural electrification. An extra thank you to the interviewees and survey respondents who contributed their thoughts to this thesis, to Professor Johannes Urpelainen as well as the teams at SELCO, Tata Power Delhi Distribution Limited, the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, and the Bihar Energy Department/State Power Holding Company for your partnership, to the Tata Consultancy Services for help with map digitization, and to the Tata Trusts, for generously funding this research. — 5 — And, of course, to the metaphorical village — the intrepid Universal Access research team. Doug, I have learned a lot from your inquisitive attitude. Thank you for being a first-rate research partner, a stellar co-presenter, and an encyclopedia of international travel safety tips. Claudio, this work would not be nearly as interesting or fun without your boundless curiosity, wild ideas, and mild tendency to disappear in airports. To the rest of the crew: Lily, Reja, Andres, Patricia, and Vivian, it has been wonderful working, traveling, and laughing with you all. Before I arrived at MIT, my dad told me he had not understood any of my career decisions to that point, but if they led me to MIT I must have done something right. My parents still are not sure what I do, exactly, but they support me, anyway. Thanks to both of you for fielding innumerable phone calls, usually while I walk-jogged across campus, being a source of both fancy restaurant food and frozen home-cooked food, and for being my best friends. You guys must also be doing something right! Also, a special thank you to my mom, Dita, who is always willing to drop everything to help me with a graphic design problem, including the layout of this thesis. And to my little sister, Talia, for always being up for a good debate about tax policy, urban agriculture, and every social justice issue under the sun. Your passion and persistence are inspiring. A big thank you to my friends, especially Tara, Toral, and Emily, for two years of outdoor adventures in the Northeast and indoor “adventures” in CRON/Building 9. Finally, Jonas, thank you for helping me with Excel, making me laugh, keeping me company through this lonely process, and for diligently correcting my grammar. We have helped each other through two theses — we probably deserve a fifth degree for that — or vacation, at least. I am looking forward to spending time with you all and talking about something other than my thesis. I’m sure you’re excited, too! — 6 — CONTENTS GLOSSARY 9 LIST OF FIGURES 10 LIST OF TABLES 11 1. INTRODUCTION 12 1.1 ELECTRIFICATION IN INDIA 12 1.2 INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT 22 1.3 MOTIVATION 23 1.4 PREVIEW 24 2. LITERATURE 25 2.1 TYPES OF