Climate Change, Migration and Resource Contestations: A Case Study of North-South Migration in Nigeria Temitope Edward Akinyemi 213570643 Submitted in partial fulfilment of the academic requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Political Science) in the School of Social Sciences, College of Humanities, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg. Supervisor: Dr. Sagie Narsiah 2016 DECLARATION I, Temitope Edward Akinyemi (Student Number 213570643), declare that: 1. The research reported in this thesis, except where otherwise indicated, is my original work. 2. This thesis has not been submitted for any degree or examination at any other university. 3. This thesis does not contain other persons’ data, pictures, graphs or other information, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from such persons. 4. This thesis does not contain other persons' writing, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from other researchers. Where other written sources have been quoted, then: a. Their words have been re-written but the general information attributed to them has been referenced; b. Where their exact words have been used, then their writing has been placed in italics and inside quotation marks, and referenced. 5. This thesis does not contain text, graphics or tables copied and pasted from the Internet, unless specifically acknowledged, and the source being detailed in the thesis and in the References sections. Temitope Edward Akinyemi July 2016. Dr. Sagie Narsiah Supervisor _____________________ Signature ii DEDICATION This work is dedicated to the glory of God Almighty, my Alpha and Omega, my creator and strength, the one who brought me thus far, and the unfailing guide to my future. To fond memories of my father: Late Pa. Gabriel Akinyemi and Late brother, Francis; and to my dear ones: my mother—Grace Akinyemi; my siblings—Kenny, Wale, Helen, and Taiwo; to my lovely daughter, Amanda and my prized wife—Tosin. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The journey of my life up to the completion of this study has no doubt been a story of God’s own project which never lacks tools—that itself being a story for another day. For the numerous supports of diverse kinds, received from individuals, groups, and corporate bodies that have been instrumental to the completion of this study in particular, I have accumulated tones in debt of gratitude that must be acknowledged. My appreciation goes first of all, to my supervisor, Dr. Sagie Narsiah whose mild but exhaustive and firm criticisms, suggestions, and advice served as pillar to this work. In similar standing is Dr. Alison Jones whose contribution provided direction while I tried to get a grip on the study. More grease to your elbows as you continue to refine protégés in our ever dynamic discipline. My appreciation goes to my lovely wife—Tosin, in whom I have found the true meaning of love, trust, and commitment. Words are inadequate to express my appreciation for your unflinching love, unyielding trust, and unreserved support in innumerable forms throughout the four years of isolated academic sojourn in The Republic of South Africa. This success couldn’t have happened without your support, both emotionally, spiritually, logistically, and as my personal editor. Even at those tough moments when I came close to doubting my capacity to overcome the many challenges I was confronted with in the course of the study, your predictably positive attitude, soothing reassurance, confidence, and faith in God as our strength all served as invigorating balms. You were phenomenal! Thank you so much. And to my daughter—Amanda, whom I left at 12 days old to set eyes upon again only about a year later, thank you for the emotional pinch which helped a great deal in speeding up this work. Your picture which I used as my screensaver was the most potent emotional propeller on the many nights of study and moments when sleep beckoned. A gaze at your photograph always spoke to me: ‘Daddy, don’t stop, Mummy and I are waiting for you!’ And I am instantly re-energised as though I’ve just had a surfeit of Nestle Premium coffee. Daddy appreciates you. The one-man-crowd behind my upward academic drive, my brother and best friend—Mr. Kehinde Akinyemi (Kenny), if I were to enumerate your contributions to my success thus far, this thesis would itself be reduced to a mere preamble. God will reward you bountifully for your innumerable sacrifices and unending love. The same level of appreciation goes to my other siblings, Mr. Taiwo Akinyemi, Mrs. Helen Ibukunlayo, and Olawale Akinyemi. You iv have all been amazingly helpful. Immense gratitude also goes to the best mother in the world—Mrs. Grace Akinyemi. For you, this is a dream come true and a vision materialised. It is a mission for which you have sacrificed so much. You shall live long in sound health, to reap the reward of your labour and endless prayers (Amen). My gratitude also goes to my uncles: Mr. Idris O. Adesuyi and family; Mr. M. O. Akinyemi and Family; Mr. And Mrs. O. Adesiyan and family; and to Mr. Festus Temitope Akindolani. Appreciation goes also to my mother in the Lord, Prophetess Comfort Oluwasola Ajayi, founder, the Wonderful Power of Christ Church Ado-Ekiti; to the Ojo Family (Nelspruit, South Africa) who were the closest I could get to my root whenever I missed home during the period of this study; to Mrs. Funmilayo Olubodun; and to my second parents, and siblings— my in-laws of the Salu family, for their patience, understanding, and support all through the period of my absence, I thank you all immensely. Every academic mission has a touch-bearer. In this respect, I pay homage to my academic mentors: Prof. Dipo Kolawole who groomed me from the undergraduate level; Prof. Bayo Adekanye, my academic ‘grandpa’; Prof. Bayo Okunade, an astute scholar whom I will always admire; Prof. Femi Omotoso, and Prof. Akinsola Agagu. Same level of gratitude goes to other equally eminent teachers: Dr. Olubukola Akintola, Dr. Remi Aiyede, Dr. Toyin Abe, Dr. A. Olaniyan, Dr. Idowu Johnson, Dr. Dele Adetoye, and Dr. Ola Abegunde all of whom have been tremendous sources of encouragement. My appreciation also goes to staff and faculty members at the Pietermaritzburg campus of the University of KwaZulu-Natal: especially to Professor Stephen M. Mutula, Dr. Khondlo Mtshali, and Ms. Nancy Mudau; as well as colleagues at the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD) in Durban. I am equally indebted to my friends: and other colleagues: Gbenga Kolawole, Gbuyiga Falade, Fatai Adul-lateef, Mr. Bunmi Ajayi, Simon Nwone; Dr. Omopupa Kamal, Dr. & Mrs. Idons, Dr. Oluwaseun Tella, Dr. Nneka Okafor, Dr. Abimbola Adebisi, Dr. Kester Onoh, and to others too numerous to mention here, but who, in one way or another, contributed to the success of this study. I pray the blessings of God will remain abundant in the lives of each and every one of you. Thank you! Temitope Edward Akinyemi, June 2016. v ACRONYMS/ABREVATIONS ACCES-Africa Climate Change Environment and Security ADB-Asian Development Bank BBC-British Broadcasting Corporation CBN-Central Bank of Nigeria CBN- Central Bank of Nigeria CNA- Center for Naval Analyses ECOWAS-Economic Community of West African States EM-DAT-Emergency Event Database ENCOP- Environment and Conflict Project FCT-Federal Capital Territory FGD-Focus Group Discussion FGN-Federal Government of Nigeria GDP- Gross Domestic Product GHF- Global Humanitarian Forum IASC- Inter-Agency Standing Committee IFAD- International Fund for Agricultural Development IIHR- Inter-American Institute of Human Rights IOM-International Organisation on Migration IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change LCFA- Local Council Farmers Associations LDCs-Least developed Countries vi LGA-Local Government Areas LSE-London School of Economics LSGN-Lagos State Government MACBAN-Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria MDGs-Millennium Development Goals MPI-Multidimensional Poverty Indicator NASA- National Aeronautics and Space Administration NBS-National Bureau of Statistics NGO-Non-Governmental Organisations NHC-Nigerian High Commission, London NOAA- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NSG-Nasarawa State Government RD-Relative Deprivation theory SAP- Structural Adjustment Programmes SEI0 Stockholm Environment Institute SEMA-State Emergency Management Authority SIDS-Small Island States UK-United Kingdom UN-United Nations UN-CHS- United Nations Commission on Human Security UNDP-United Nations Development Program vii UNEP-United Nations Environment Program UNESCO- United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC-United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNICEF- United Nations Children Emergency Fund UN-ISDR- United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UN-OHRLLS- United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States UNU-EHS- United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security USAID-United States Agency for International Development USDA-United States Department of Agriculture WBGU- German Advisory Council on Global Change WEF-World Economic Forum viii ABSTRACT As the global community grapples with the reality of climate change, the imperatives of mitigation and adaptation interventions have gained attention across policy circles. While stakeholders draw up policies for combating its effects, academic research on social and political implications of climate change remains controversial