PROTECTING THE EARTH FROM ASTEROID IMPACTS ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT 2017 1 Cover: Photo by Ed Lu from the International Space Station This Page: Photo by Ed Lu of islands in the Caribbean, from the International Space Station If you look at the history of our planet over 4.5 billion years, it has been struck by asteroids, large and small, thousands of times. And if you look at what we have the opportunity to do, it is to change the evolution of the entire solar system such that the third planet no longer gets hit by large asteroids. And that’s actually within our capability. ED LU, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE ASTEROID INSTITUTE LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT In October we celebrated the anniversary of B612, which formally incorporated and elected officers fifteen years ago. Five forward-thinking individuals — Ed Lu, Piet Hut, Clark Chapman, Rusty Schweickart, and Geoff Baehr — were part of the organization’s founding. With your support the next fifteen years will be filled with asteroid discovery and global collaborations within the growing field of planetary defense. The vision and hard work of the founding and current board directors have laid the groundwork for us to create the Asteroid Institute earlier this year. The Asteroid Institute is a virtual collaboration rooted in science and technology programs. The Asteroid Institute team is working on hardware, new technologies, and applications that will help us accelerate our knowledge and understanding of asteroids. The Asteroid Institute is building on the Asteroid Decision Analysis and Mapping project (ADAM) Cloud Platform (see pages 14-15). The ADAM project will provide a cloud-based infrastructure for large-scale orbital dynamics and related computations that will enable the science, policy, and business community to better understand and make sense of opportunities and threats coming from the asteroids in the solar system. We continue to explore options to utilize synthetic tracking to increase the rate of asteroid discovery (see page 16). Our partners in the private sector and at CalTech, Southwest Research Institute, and other academic institutions are helping us advance these capabilities. As we have often stated, synthetic tracking technology could complement other telescopes by finding and tracking the large number of asteroids which will be missed by land-based telescopes — such as LSST — and infrared space telescopes such as NASA’s proposed NEOCam. Synthetic tracking technology will allow us to address asteroids less than 140 meters in size by using extremely fast data processing to compensate for the rapid motion of smaller asteroids. 4 LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT B612’s education and advocacy program accomplishments include our participation in Asteroid Day and its global broadcast. With the financial and in-kind support of corporate sponsors (see page 18), Asteroid Day delivered a 24-hour broadcast of educational asteroid programing around the world. Special thanks also goes to NASA, ESA, JAXA, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, as well as the University of Arizona’s Lunar and Planetary Observatory whose participation in the live broadcast expanded the view of the many efforts to discover, observe and track asteroids. But truly, the 1,200+ independently organized events taking place in over 200 countries by regional and local organizers were the heart of Asteroid Day. These coordinators and organizers invested their own time, dedication and passion to create their independent Asteroid Day events. Working with scientists, researchers and teachers in their communities, they shined a light on the experts who locally support the global conversation about asteroids. In the past, this year and into the future, our work is only made possible through the generosity of our supporters and innovators in the field who partner with us. As we move towards the end of 2017, we will continue our strategy of leveraging our supporters’ investments in the best possible way — for the maximum benefit to our field and to the world as a whole. With appreciation to all our supporters around the world we look forward… Danica Remy President B612 Foundation LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT 5 Photograph of the Dumbarton Bridge and salt ponds, by Ed Lu from the International Space Station ABOUT US B612 is dedicated to protecting Earth from asteroid impacts. We do this through: Science & Technology Driving forward the science and technologies needed to protect the Earth from asteroid impacts. Advocacy & Public Education Educating the general public, the scientific community, and world governments about planetary defense against asteroid impacts. Since the organization’s inception in 2002, our work has been carried out entirely through the support of private donors. What started in 2002 as a visionary idea to develop the technology to deflect an asteroid has grown into a world-renowned organization and scientific institute with a key role in the emerging field of planetary defense. For years, B612, our partners, and a global community of dedicated scientists and researchers have advocated for increased asteroid detection and many victories resulted from those efforts. Asteroid detection is now debated seriously in scientific, governmental, and public conversations. And now that conversation must advance further. 6 ABOUT US IN THE LAST YEAR Last year we stated several objectives to support our work to advance the field of planetary defense. We are pleased to report we have made progress towards achieving those goals. Advance Cutting-Edge Technologies for Asteroid Detection The first step in opening up a new frontier is to map it. A comprehensive map showing the location of geographic features, resources, and access routes has historically been the key to scientific discovery, economic expansion, and defense. The Asteroid Institute is advancing work to create a predictive dynamical map, which requires two things — multiple observations of We space fliers have seen the cosmic scars the positions of each object over a long period of time, on Earth, and our international collaboration and the ability to calculate the future locations of those in space is an example of how we should objects using the laws of orbital mechanics. apply our joint skills in space technology to Develop Tools for Analyzing and Assessing Asteroid find rogue asteroids and divert them from a Deflection Scenarios collision with Earth. TOM JONES, ASTRONAUT The Asteroid Institute program started the Asteroid Detection Analysis Machine (ADAM) project last year, which will provide cloud-based infrastructure for large-scale orbital dynamics and related computations that will enable the science and business community to identify, track, analyze, understand, and react to opportunities and threats coming from the asteroids in the solar system. ADAM will provide openness and transparency, allowing others to use it as a baseline for comparison and collaboration. Demonstrate the Viability of Synthetic Tracking For the past several years, B612 has supported the development of a technology for tracking asteroids called synthetic tracking, which we believe can revolutionize the discovery of asteroids by allowing us to track millions of asteroids too small to be seen by other means. Synthetic tracking compensates for the blurring effect caused by the motion of asteroids, allowing very long exposure times and the use of small inexpensive telescopes for finding these asteroids. Drive Global Conversation Around Asteroids B612 is proud to be a founding partner of Asteroid Day, a global awareness campaign that teaches people about asteroids. Celebrated annually on June 30th, this year 1,200+ events were organized worldwide and a first-ever Asteroid Day LIVE 24-hour broadcast was held at the program’s new global headquarters in Luxembourg. IN THE LAST YEAR 7 PROGRAM EVOLUTION 2014 2016 2017 2012 2000 2008 2002 2004 2002 2004–2008 2005 2008-2009 B612 founded with the goal of B612 leads the Apophis B612 announces the B612 funds design study at significantly altering the orbit debate. invention of the Gravity JPL showing feasibility of an asteroid in a controlled Tractor in Nature. of the Gravity Tractor. manner. Congress gives NASA the goal of finding 90 percent of asteroids larger than 140 meters, called the George E. Brown Act. 2012 Open letter to NASA about B612 announces the Sentinel B612 moves from a volunteer deflection mission planning Space Telescope project. organization to staffed. and discussions regarding potential impact of asteroid 2011 AG5. 2013 Sentinel project passes its Sentinel project design first major technical review. published in New Space. 2014 B612 releases asteroid impact UN Committee on Peaceful B612 is Founding Sponsor Construction project for video with data from the Uses of Outer Space of Asteroid Day project, a Large Synoptic Survey Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and General Assembly global asteroid-awareness Telescope (LSST) begins. Organization. pass resolution creating campaign. International Asteroid Warning Network. 2015 B612’s “Sentinel to Find B612 hosts Bay Area Asteroid Asteroid Day project holds B612 begins work with 500,000 Near-Earth Day event with California 150 events worldwide. Caltech on synthetic tracking Asteroids,” published in IEEE Academy of Science. research. Spectrum. 2016 NASA announces Planetary B612 issues pre-print B612 begins Asteroid Decision B612 endorses NEOcam + Defense Coordination Office. “Sentinel Performance for Analysis and Mapping project LSST for 100M+ solution and Surveying the Near-Earth