-©fine Channel Tunnel s throughpdrth^Çpmmunity European Commission European Union Regional Policy and Cohesion Regional development studies The regional impact of the Channel Tunnel throughout the Community European Commission Already published in the series Regional development studies 01 — Demographic evolution in European regions (Demeter 2015) 02 — Socioeconomic situation and development of the regions in the neighbouring countries of the Community in Central and Eastern Europe 03 — Les politiques régionales dans l'opinion publique 04 — Urbanization and the functions of cities in the European Community 05 — The economic and social impact of reductions in defence spending and military forces on the regions of the Community 06 — New location factors for mobile investment in Europe 07 — Trade and foreign investment in the Community regions: the impact of economic reform in Central and Eastern Europe 08 — Estudio prospectivo de las regiones atlánticas — Europa 2000 Study of prospects in the Atlantic regions — Europe 2000 Étude prospective des régions atlantiques — Europe 2000 09 — Financial engineering techniques applying to regions eligible under Objectives 1, 2 and 5b 10 — Interregional and cross-border cooperation in Europe 11 — Estudio prospectivo de las regiones del Mediterráneo Oeste Évolution prospective des régions de la Méditerranée - Ouest Evoluzione delle prospettive delle regioni del Mediterraneo occidentale 12 — Valeur ajoutée et ingénierie du développement local 13 — The Nordic countries — what impact on planning and development in the Union? 14 — Development prospects of the central Mediterranean regions (Mezzogiorno-Greece) 15 — The spatial consequences of the integration of the new German Länder into the Community 16 — The impact of the development of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe on the Community territory 17 — Étude prospective des régions de l'arc alpin et périalpin Studio delle prospettive delle regioni dell'arco alpino e pedalpino 18 — The prospective development of the northern seaboard 19 — L'impact sur le développement régional et l'aménagement de l'espace communautaire des pays du Sud et de l'Est méditerranéens (PSEM) 20 — Evolución prospectiva de las regiones interiores (y de los espacios rurales de baja densidad de población en la Comunidad) Évolution prospective des régions intérieures (et des espaces ruraux de faible densité de population de la Communauté) 21 — The regional impact of the Channel Tunnel throughout the Community 22 — The perspective development of the central and capital cities and regions 23 — La notoriété des politiques régionales en Europe 24 — Cohesion and the development challenge facing the lagging regions 25 — In den Regionen für die Regionen Europas — Über die Aneignung eines neuen gewerk• schaftlichen Arbeitsfeldes At regional level on behalf of Europe's regions — Developing a new field of trade union activity Agir dans les régions pour l'Europe des régions — Un nouveau champ d'activités syndicales Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1996 ISBN 92-826-8804-6 © ECSC-EC-EAEC, Brussels · Luxembourg, 1996 Reproduction is authorized, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Germany Preface Each year, the Directorate-General for Regional Policy and Cohesion of the European Commission launches a number of studies in the field of regional policy and regional planning. These studies mainly aim at providing a basis for policy formulation internally, as well as the preparation of programmes and initiatives and a basis for analysing the impact of current or planned activities. The most interesting or innovative of these are published in a series entitled Regional development studies. With this series, the Directorate-General hopes to stimulate discussion and action in a wider sphere on the research results received. The publication of the studies is addressed to politicians and decision-makers at European, regional and local level, as well as to academics and experts in the broad fields of issues covered. It is hoped that by publicizing research results the Commission will enrich and stimulate public debate and promote a further exchange of knowledge and opinions on the issues which are considered important for the economic and social cohesion of the Union and therefore for the future of Europe. Readers should bear in mind that the study reports do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Commission but first and foremost express the opinion of those responsible for carrying out the study. Contents List of figures 7 List of Tables 9 1. Introduction 11 2. Problem statement 13 3. Research methodology 21 3.1. Modelling impacts of the Channel Tunnel on regional development in Europe 21 3.2. Impacts of the Channel Tunnel on regional development in selected regions 22 3.3. Synthesis of model analysis and regional analyses 23 4. Regional analyses 25 4.1. The case-study regions 25 4.2. Current situation 30 4.3. Possible impacts 54 4.4. Response of regional actors 93 4.5. Expectations for external action 103 5. The model analysis 111 5.1. Introduction '. 111 5.2. Structure and theory of the model 111 5.3. Model implementation and calibration 127 5.4. Model validation: How good is the model? 146 5.5. Model results 151 6. Synthesis and conclusions 203 6.1. Problems of synthesis 204 6.2. Confrontation of regional analyses and model analysis 208 6.3. Generalization to all EC regions 300 6.4. Conclusions 309 7. References 314 List of figures 2.1 The Channel Tunnel system 2.2 Cheriton and Coquelles Channel Tunnel terminals 2.3 Channel Tunnel shuttles 2.4 Integration of the Channel Tunnel into the European high-speed rail network 3.1 Synthesis between model analysis and regional analyses 4.1 The thirteen case-studies of the project 4.2 The case-study regions: area and population 4.3 The case-study regions: population change, 1976-1987 4.4 The case-study regions: population by age, 1986 4.5 The case-study regions: gross value-added, 1986 4.6 The case-study regions: employment, 1988 4.7 The case-study regions: GDP and Synthetic Index 4.8 British and Irish ferry links 4.9 The case-study regions and the "Blue Banana" 4.10 The future European high-speed rail network 4.11 High-speed trains: The French TGV and the German ICE 4.12 Alternative high-speed rail lines through Kent (1988 British Rail proposal and route selected by the UK Government) 4.13 The Channel Tunnel and the British rail access 4.14 Expected impacts on transport flows 4.15 Impacts on regional development expected by regional actors 4.16 Global impact on regional development following the regional analyses 4.17 Response of maritime companies: Jumbo ferries 5.1 Evolution of the economic structure and transport through time 5.2 Channel Tunnel zone plan 5.3 Spatial input-output model for a two-commodity multi-zone example 5.4 Comparison of observed and modelled 1986 trade flows between the UK and mainland Europe 5.5 Modelled road network in the Channel area 5.6 Modelled road network 5.7 Modelled rail network 5.8 Modelled air network 5.9 Modelled shipping network 5.10 Comparison of observed and modelled passenger flows between the UK and mainland Europe (for calibration) 5.11 Comparison of 1989 observed and 1991 modelled passenger and freight flows between the UK and mainland Europe (for calibration) 5.12 Comparison of 1985 observed and 1986 modelled value-added 5.13 Road network improvements 5.14 Rail network improvements 5.15 Journey times by car, 1991 5.16 Journey times by rail, 1991 5.17 Journey times by car without Tunnel, 2001 List of figures 5.18 Journey times by rail without Tunnel, 2001 5.19 Journey times by car without Tunnel, 2001 5.20 Journey times by rail without Tunnel, 2001 5.21 Journey times by car, 1991 and 2001 5.22 Journey times by train, 1991 and 2001 5.23 Forecast passenger and freight flows (C1) between the UK and mainland Europe 5.24 Comparison of Channel Tunnel through-rail forecasts for passenger and freight flows 5.25 Comparison of Channel Tunnel shuttle-rail forecasts for passenger and freight flows 5.26 1996 percentage change in value-added (B-A) 5.27 1996 percentage change in value-added (C-A) 5.28 1996 percentage change in value-added (B1-B) 5.29 1996 percentage change in value-added (C1-C) 5.30 2001 percentage change in value-added (C1-C) 5.31 1996 industrial and food production: contribution to change in value-added 5.32 1996 repair, retrail, communication, lodging, catering, transport services, business, finance, market services, non-market services: contribution to change in value-added 5.33 1996 tourism: contribution to change in value-added 5.34 1996 percentage change in value-added 5.35 2001 industrial and food production: contribution to change in value-added 5.36 2001 repair, retrail, communication, lodging, catering, transport services, business, finance, market sen/ices, non-market services: contribution to change in value-added 5.37 2001 tourism: contribution to change in value-added 5.38 2001 percentage change in value-added 6.1 Kent: change in value-added, limited network 6.2 Kent: change in value-added, extended network 6.3 Nord-Pas-de-Calais: change in value-added, limited network 6.4 Nord-Pas-de-Calais: change in value-added, extended network 6.5 West-Vlaanderen: change in value-added, limited network 6.6 West-Vlaanderen: change in value-added, extended network 6.7 Hainaut: change in value-added, limited network 6.8 Hainaut: change