Hostle Territory: Lessons Learned from Satellite Imagery of Recent Cross-Border Conficts Disclaimer Contact the Geospatial Technologies Project geotech © Copyright 2015 Geospatial Technologies Project Program Associate Acknowledgement Table of Contents Introducton 2 Africa 4 Sudan and South Sudan, 2011-2012 4 Djibout and Eritrea, 2008 12 Intra-Regional Comparison 20 Asia 22 Cambodia and Thailand, 2008-2011 22 India and Pakistan, 2001-2002 30 Intra-Regional Comparison 38 Former Soviet Union 40 Russia and Georgia, 2008 40 Armenia and Azerbaijan, 2008-2012 46 Ukraine and Russia, 2014 52 Intra-Regional Comparison 60 Inter-Regional Comparison 62 Endnotes 66 Table of Contents 1 Introducton In 2013, with funding from the United Because countries engaged in border States Insttute of Peace, the Geospatal disputes almost always difer on the subject Technologies and Human Rights Project of the of the boundary's locaton, and due to the American Associaton for the Advancement of potental for error in the various datasets Science began the project “Hostle Territory: in use, this investgaton did not limit itself Revealing Trends in Cross-Border Confict to observing phenomena directly adjacent Using Satellite Imagery.” The goal of this to internatonally-recognized fronters. project was to evaluate the prospects for Instead, the entrety of the disputed area providing early warning of confict using was considered for analysis, along with, in analysis of high-resoluton satellite imagery of many cases, facilites such as military bases historical border conficts as case studies. The that were located deep within uncontested project analyzed imagery of the belligerents territory, but which were deemed relevant to prior to and during the confict in order to the confict. identfy the types of observable phenomena that occur prior to the outbreak of violence. Case studies were selected in pairs based on geographic proximity and history in Seven recent conficts were selected as order to determine if any trends could be case studies for this analysis. In order to be identfed based on the region and historical selected for analysis, the confict must have causes of the confict. The categories the consisted of a dispute primarily between two case studies were selected from included state actors over the control of territory. In disputes stemming from the end of African additon, the dispute must have occurred colonialism, the end of colonialism in South afer 2000, as that is when commercial and Southeast Asia, and the fall of the Soviet high-resoluton satellite imagery became Union. To study disputes stemming from the widely available. Furthermore, tensions end of African colonialism, the 2011-2012 had to have escalated to the point where war between Sudan and South Sudan and the some phenomena could be observed with 2008 confict between Eritrea and Djibout imagery. Therefore, border disputes that were were selected. The 2002 standof between primarily diplomatc in nature were excluded. India and Pakistan, and the dispute between Cambodia and Thailand over the Preah Vihear 2 Introducton Temple were studied to analyze disputes The intra-regional comparison can be found resultng from the end of colonialism in at the end of each secton. Here, similarites South and Southeast Asia. Originally, two and diferences between the case studies are disputes between former soviet states were discussed in order to determine what, if any, selected. These were the 2008 war between trends can be identfed. The report ends Georgia and Russia, and the contnuous with an inter-regional comparison to identfy dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijain. what trends can be identfed by comparing The seventh case study was added when, the border disputes in diferent regions. in spring 2014, the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine sparked the crisis between Ukraine and Russia. The reports of the results of this project are grouped into sectons based on these three regions. Each secton includes the results of each case study and an intra regional comparison of the regional case studies. The results of each case study begin with an overview of the confict followed by a discussion of the motvatons of the actors and the internal signifcance of the confict to them. A summary of the manifestatons of the confict that were observed through satellite imagery analysis is then presented. The key fndings, as they relate to early warning, are then discussed. Introducton 3 Sudan and South Sudan: 2011–2012 Introducton To analyze the confict, imagery was On 9 January 2005 the Sudan People’s acquired of 14 sites (Figure 1) in Sudan and Liberaton Movement (SPLM) and the South Sudan. These sites included towns, Government of Sudan signed a series forward military positons, and rear area Africa of agreements known as both the military bases. Three of the sites were large, Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) permanent, Sudanese military bases located and the Naivasha Agreement, the aim of at least 75km from the border with South which was to bring an end to the second Sudan. Five towns situated on or near the Sudanese civil war. Among other features, border were also selected along with six the CPA stpulated that South Sudan forward military positons. In total, 50 images would hold a referendum between 9 and from 2010-2012 were acquired for analysis. 15 January 2011 to decide the mater of It should also be noted that multple sites independence. The CPA also aforded the oil in the Abyei area were not covered by this rich Abyei Administratve Area (AAA) a unique study to avoid duplicatng the work done administratve status, assigning, untl the by the Harvard Humanitarian Initatve.3 In referendum, governing responsibilites to a their assessment of the Abyei confict, new locally elected Executve Council. The 2011 milita camps were observed prior to the referendum would then have given Abyei confict near three towns north and west residents a choice between joining Sudan, of the Abyei Administratve Area; Sitaib, joining South Sudan, or remaining a special Debab, and Meiram. In additon, the Harvard 1 administratve area. However, in the months Humanitarian Initatve observed increases leading up to the referendum, Sudan and in the number of troops present at the SAF South Sudan could not resolve the issue base at Nyama and the SAF airbase at Muglad of voter eligibility for nomadic Misseriya (Figure 1). These observatons were strong tribes who spend part of each year in Abyei. indicators of imminent violence in Abyei. As a result, the referendum was not held in Abyei. 2 Motvatons and Signifcance The referendum went ahead in the rest of The causes of the 2011-2012 war between South Sudan resultng in South Sudan votng Sudan and South Sudan date back, in part, to to form an independent state. Immediately the decades long civil war that ended with following the referendum, violence erupted in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of several locatons throughout Sudan and South 2005 and led to the creaton of South Sudan Sudan. Fightng occurred in the AAA, the in 2011. The causes of the civil war included Nuba Mountain Region, Darfur, Blue Nile, and disputes over oil rights, ethnic conficts, and the Heglig region. These conficts involved migraton rights of nomadic groups. In early multple partes, including both government 2011, these issues were present in Abyei and non-state actors. This study, however, during the months preceding the planned focused exclusively on the conficts in Abyei Abyei Independence Referendum. and Heglig as they were the areas where control of territory was disputed between Sudan and South Sudan. 4 Sudan and South Sudan FIGURE 1: Selected sites in Sudan and South Sudan Sudan and South Sudan 5 FIGURE 2: Two temporary camps in Jau. Between 30 September 2010 (A) and 15 January 2011 (B), two camps of tightly packed structures or tents (red boxes), arranged in rows, were constructed near Jau. By 16 December 2011 (C), these structures had been removed with no signs of fighting or fire. Images DigitalGlobe | Analysis AAAS. Coordinates 10.2785 N, 29.9971 E. FIGURE 3: Improvements to the Talodi Airfield. Between 2 February 2011 (A) and 4 January 2012 (B), the runway was extended and straightened (red arrow), an earthworks barrier was constructed around it (blue arrow), and a nearby compound was cleared (orange arrow). By 18 December 2012, the runway was paved (red arrow), a second, smaller runway and apron were constructed (yellow arrow), support structures were added to the nearby compound (orange arrow), and a military compound was added (green box). Images DigitalGlobe | Analysis AAAS. Coordinates 10.6231 N, 30.3970 E. FIGURE 4: Dam constructed west of Talodi. A dam was constructed between 4 January 2012 (A) and 18 December 2012 (B). Images DigitalGlobe | Analysis AAAS. Coordinates 10.6381 N, 30.3693 E. 6 Sudan and South Sudan In 2004, while the Comprehensive Peace The war between Sudan and South Sudan can Agreement was being negotated, Abyei be considered an extension of the decades accounted for 25% of Sudan’s oil producton.4 long Sudanese civil war. The ethnic tensions This estmate included oil felds in the nearby and conficts over migraton rights that Heglig area, an area which was later deemed gave rise to much of the civil war’s violence to be outside of the Abyei Administratve have remained following South Sudanese Area. In 2009, the declining productvity of independence. In additon, the ownership the Abyei oil felds and the decision to place and control of oil producing regions, as well the Heglig oil felds outside the AAA meant as the use of oil infrastructure, played a major that Abyei only accounted for 1% of Sudan’s role in both the Sudanese civil war and the annual oil producton. Despite the decline in 2011-2012 war. oil producton, oil can stll be considered a factor in the confict, as ownership of Manifestatons the oil felds was a key consideraton in The war between Sudan and South the creaton of Abyei as a special Sudan involved large amounts of military administratve area.