COUNTRY REPORT Côte d'Ivoire Mali The full publishing schedule for Country Reports is now available on our web site at http://www.eiu.com/schedule. 3rd quarter 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. 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ISSN 0969-4730 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Côte d’Ivoire 5 Political structure 6 Economic structure 7 Outlook for 1999-2000 10 Review 10 The political scene 11 Economic policy 12 The economy 13 Agriculture 15 Mining 16 Energy 16 Transport 17 Health 17 Finance 18 Foreign trade and payments Mali 21 Political structure 22 Economic structure 23 Outlook for 1999-2000 25 Review 25 The political scene 28 Economic policy 29 The economy 31 Agriculture 31 Mining 32 Manufacturing 32 Transport 33 Foreign trade and payments 35 Quarterly indicators and trade data List of tables 9 Côte d’Ivoire: forecast summary 12 Côte d’Ivoire: inflation 13 Côte d’Ivoire: cocoa prices EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 2 14 Côte d’Ivoire: grinding capacity 18 Côte d’Ivoire: external trade 19 Côte d’Ivoire: Franco-Ivorian trade 24 Mali: forecast summary 25 Mali: results of municipal elections, 1998 29 Mali: proposed ESAF performance targets 30 Mali: gross domestic product 31 Mali: consumer prices 31 Mali: performance of the Sadiola mine 33 Mali: impact of a proposed free-trade area with the EU, 2005-17 34 Mali: external debt 35 Côte d’Ivoire: quarterly indicators of economic activity 35 Mali: quarterly indicators of economic activity 36 Côte d’Ivoire: foreign trade 37 Mali: foreign trade 38 Côte d’Ivoire and Mali: French trade List of figures 9 Côte d’Ivoire: gross domestic product 9 Côte d’Ivoire: CFA franc real exchange rates 12 Côte d’Ivoire: consumer prices 13 Côte d’Ivoire: industrial production 13 Côte d’Ivoire: world cocoa prices 17 Côte d’Ivoire: BRVM 24 Mali: gross domestic product 24 Mali: CFA franc real exchange rates 30 Mali: inflation 34 Mali: external debt EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 3 July 1st 1999 Summary 3rd quarter 1999 Côte d’Ivoire Outlook for 1999-2000: Relations between the ruling PDCI and one of its main rivals, the RDR, are likely to deteriorate in the run-up to legislative and presidential elections in 2000. However, the appearance of divisions within the opposition may encourage President Konan Bédié to make some concessions, although social unrest is still a possibility. Relations with the IMF will remain difficult. Real GDP growth should average 5% in 1999 and 2000. Subdued inflation and the unexpected weakness of the euro, to which the CFA franc is linked, will help Ivorian exports in 1999 and maintain a narrow current- account deficit. Review: Negotiations between the government and the opposition RDR have collapsed, following President Konan Bédié’s rejection of demands for electoral reform. The RDR’s preferred presidential candidate, Alassane Dramane Ouattara, will take over the party leadership in August, but it remains uncertain whether he will be allowed to stand. Students have gone on strike, as have civil servants. Talks have resumed with the IMF. The government has agreed to several conditions for the release of further money, including an audit of public finances. Year-on-year inflation has continued to fall. The drop in world cocoa prices has prompted the government to call for more local processing. A lower coffee crop is expected for 1998/99, but sugar output will reach record levels. Falling world gold prices have slowed down the privatisation of mines, although further developments are planned. The privatisation of the national petroleum refinery SIR has been approved, and new oil and gas agreements have been signed. The government has provided support to the ailing Air Ivoire. An AIDS treatment project has been launched. The BRVM’s performance has remained subdued, despite the inauguration of a satellite link and the successful launch of a government bond. The trade surplus increased in 1998 to CFAfr828bn, while the government has promoted trade with UEMOA countries and France. Brady bonds have reportedly been bought back by the government. Mali Outlook for 1999-2000: New efforts to promote the decentralisation of power could ease tensions between the government and the radical opposition and improve the prospects for political stability. However, recently elected local councils will have to prove themselves to be effective instruments of govern- ment. Real GDP growth is expected to remain at 5% in 1999-2000, while annual average inflation should fall below 3%. Review: A second round of voting in municipal elections has been marred by a boycott by the radical opposition, but otherwise it passed off peacefully. The ruling Adema party has won control of most councils. A Civic Forum has been established to try to help resolve the continuing political stalemate between the government and supporters of the radical opposition. President Konaré has proposed reforms for the justice system. Regional diplomacy has featured strongly on the government’s agenda. Discussions with the IMF for a new EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 4 funding agreement have begun, following the conclusion in March of a three-year ESAF deal. Parliament has finally adopted tax reforms, including the introduction of VAT. Real GDP growth fell to about 4.6% in 1998. Prices have remained stable since January. Rice production increased to record levels in 1998/99. The Sadiola Hill gold mine exceeded all targets in 1998, although the gold yield is expected to decline this year. Another mine at Yatela is to be developed. An EU study has found that free trade with Europe would have a negative effect on Mali. The country’s stock of external debt has remained stable since 1996 at around $3bn. Editor: Antony Goldman All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Next report: Our next Country Report will be published in October EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 Côte d’Ivoire 5 Côte d’Ivoire Political structure Official name République de Côte d’Ivoire Form of state Unitary republic Legal system Based on the 1960 constitution and the Code Napoléon National legislature Assemblée nationale; 175 members elected by universal suffrage for a five-year term National elections October 1995 (presidential) and November 1995 (legislative); next elections due by October 2000 (presidential) and November 2000 (legislative) Head of state Henri Konan Bédié, elected in October 1995 National government The prime minister and his appointed Council of Ministers; last reshuffle August 1998 Main political parties Parti démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI)—ruling party; Rassemblement des républicains (RDR); Front populaire ivoirien (FPI) Prime minister Daniel Kablan Duncan Key ministers Agriculture & animal husbandry Lambert Kouassi Konan Defence Bandama N’Gatta