STRATEGIC OR TACTICAL PARTNERS: A CASE STUDY EXPLORING RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND IRAN FROM 1980 TO 2010 By Ganna Oleksandrivna White Submitted to the School of International Service of American University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts In International Relations Chair: Professor Mamuka G. Tsereteli /J/ g 0 /Ö r- -^ --,Jr Carole A. O'Leary ' Date LO (J^rú^ Dean Louis W. Goodman Date 2010 American University Washington, D.C 2001 AMERICAN UNIVERSITY LIBRARY ^ ^ UMI Number: 1489809 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. UMT Dissertation Publishing UMI 1489809 Copyright 2011 by ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This edition of the work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest® ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 Abstract This research analyses the relationship between Russia and Iran for the past thirty years. The main question of this study is whether Russia and Iran have been strategic or tactical partners during this critical period. The answer to this question is essential for understanding the geopolitical future of the wider Middle East and Central Asia region and US role there. An alliance between Russia and Iran and their possible collaboration on Iran's nuclear program would create a major problem for the United States and its allies in the region. This thesis is based on historical analysis and case study methods. Major policy papers, articles, and books on Russia-Iran collaboration were used for this research. The analysis shows that the partnership between Iran and Russia has been driven by the geopolitical balance of power. Both countries wanted to balance the influence ofthe United States and its allies in the region. The paper analyses the history of collaboration between two countries in the nuclear field, in the economic and in the energy development, as well as in the political collaboration in Central Asia. The research concludes that Russia and Iran have been tactical partners, not strategic ones. Additionally, the research predicts Russia's shift toward greater collaboration with the United States and NATO in the near future. iii Table of Contents Abstract ü Table of Contents iii Chapter 1 . Introduction 1 2. Literature Review 4 3. Theoretical Approach and Methodology 15 4. Thesis 18 Geopolitical Overview 18 Iran-Iraq War 22 War in Afghanistan 30 Collapse of Soviet Union 34 Civil War in Tajikistan 39 Gore-ChernomyrdinCommission, Bushehr deal and testing of Iranian Shahab-3 47 Putin's Era 53 Strategy of Ahmadinejad 71 Medvedev Times 80 5. Conclusion 95 Bibliography 99 iv I Introduction The main question of this research paper is "Have Russia and Iran been strategic or tactical partners for the past 30 years?" The relations between the two countries have been based on three major factors: economic relations, nuclear collaboration, and balance of power. The goal of this research is to analyze these three factors and come up with the answer to the main question. The relationship between Russia and Iran officially commenced in 1 592, with Safavids in power. Relations in the past and present between Russia and Iran have long been complicatedly multi-faceted. The two countries have a long history of economic, diplomatic; and social-political interaction. Since then, mutual relations have been both turbulent and dormant, depending on the time in history. In this research paper, I will be concentrating on Russia-Iran relations post- 1979 to present. A year before the Iran-Iraq war, the U.S. tried to convert Iran into an anti- communist block, thus ending Russia's influence on Iran. During the Iran-Iraq War, the USSR supplied Iraq with large amounts of conventional arms. After the war, especially with the fall of the USSR, the Tehran-Moscow relationship witnessed a sudden increase in diplomatic and economic relations and Iran began purchasing weapons from Russia. By the mid-1990s, Russia had agreed to continue working on developing Iran's nuclear program and finish the construction of Bushehr nuclear power plant. 1 2 As confrontation between Iran and the U. S escalates, the country is finding itself further pushed into an alliance with Russia and China. Iran like Russia views Turkey's regional ambitions and possible spread of some form of pan-Turkic ideology with suspicion. Russia and Iran also share a common interest in limiting the political influence of the United States in Central Asia. However, Iran-Russia ties remain to be seen tested. Iran has recently expressed its unhappiness with the repeated delays by Russia in finishing the Bushehr reactor project, as well as Russia's stance in the Caspian Sea dispute. Russia's growing ties with Israel and its increasing role in the Arab-Israeli peace process have also been points of tension between the two countries. Russia is increasingly becoming dependent on its economic relations with the West and therefore gradually becoming vulnerable to western pressures in trying to curb its ties with Teheran. The great sign of Russia's rapprochement toward the West is recent NATO Summit, where Russia has agreed to collaborate with the U.S. in Afghanistan. The answer to the question whether Russia and Iran have been strategic or tactical partners is essential for the understanding of the geopolitical future of the wider Middle East and Central Asia region and U. S role there. The alliance between Russia and Iran and collaboration on nuclear program of Iran would have created a major problem for the United States and its allies in the region. Therefore, understanding its relationship with the respect to nuclear technology partnership is an essential element in understanding the world's energy and nuclear security situations. In this paper, I will argue that Russia and Iran are tactical partners, versus strategic ones. This argument will be based on several facts such as trade and nuclear collaboration in order to maintain 3 good economic level and develop nuclear technologies (in case of Iran), and mutual diplomatic collaboration to resist the influence of the U.S. in the region. I Literature Review I will utilize the following five major works for my research paper: Persian Dreams by John Parker, "Russia and Iran: a Tactical Alliance" by Robert Freedman, "Nuclear Proliferation: the Islamic Republic of Iran" by Gawdat Bahgate, "Moscow and the Middle East: Soviet Policy Since the Invasion of Afghanistan" by Robert Freedman and Russia and Iran: Ten Years ofNuclear Collaboration by Sevak Sarukhanian. In addition, I will analyze and draw on recent policy papers and scholarly analyses that examine U.S-Russian, Iran-Russian and Iran-U.S relations that relate to my research question. In his book, Persian Dreams John Parker emphasizes that Russia and Iran have a history of engagement and cooperation even while they had serious disagreements. For example, in 1992 Russia and Iran backed different sides in the civil war in Tajikistan, yet began to negotiate the Bushehr nuclear power plant contract. In his book, Parker quotes Russian expert, Alexei Malashenko, who highlights that "for Russia engagement with Iran is a strategy, while for Iran cooperation with Russia is just a tactics."1 1 John Parker, Persian Dreams. Potomac Books Ine: 2009, 130 4 5 According to Parker, on the nuclear issue "Moscow's record under President Yeltsin was chaotic and mixed at best."2 Under Putin, Russia became more consistent in using a mixture of engagement and pressure to encourage Tehran to restrain its nuclear program. This pressure included slowing down construction of Bushehr, drawing out negotiations on agreement for the return of spent nuclear fuel and supporting of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)3 and United Nations Security Council resolutions critical of Iran. Since Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005, Russian tactics failed to yield results and Iran abandoned suspension and forged ahead its nuclear enrichment program. In Parker's view, "for a variety of reasons Russia over the years has not pressed Iran harder to abandon its military nuclear program."4 Russia's assessment of Iran's progress on rearmament and nuclear enrichment has been more relaxed than that of others. Russia has also been reluctant to spoil cooperation with Iran on regional issues, particularly in the Tajik peace process and pre 9/11 opposition to Taliban. Russia has also hoped for greater profits from trade with Iran. As a result, Parker argued, Tehran during the Ahmadinejad years has been more successful in using Moscow to shield Iran's 2 John Parker, Persian Dreams. Potomac Books Ine: 2009, 145 3 John Parker, Persian Dreams. Potomac Books Ine: 2009, 250 4 John Parker, Persian Dreams. Potomac Books Ine: 2009, 255 6 military nuclear program than Moscow has been in using its leverage to restrain this program.5 Despite Russia's success on softening UN Security Council resolutions on Iran, Iran's leaders declared them illegal. Russia by repeatedly protecting Iran from greater international pressure, has thus arguably contributed to increasing the odds that the Islamic Republic will eventually be able to slip out of the nonproliferation box.6 Parker thinks that the future of the Russo-Iranian relationship is nevertheless difficult to predict; greater Russian pressure on Iran can't be precluded nor can the return of a more tactical flexibility in Tehran's policies be ruled out. Robert Freedman, in his article "Russia and Iran: a Tactical Alliance," describes the events that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union.