Nexus Brief, Nr. 8, October 2019 Climate Change & Environment The Climate- Cryosphere- Water Nexus in Central Asia Key messages Climate change impacts are already noticeable in Transboundary cooperation and integrated Central Asia, which is expected to be one of the most approaches in water management are key strategies in vulnerable regions globally. Temperatures in Central the development of sustainable adaptation solutions in Asia have increased steadily over the past 50 years the region. Integrated Water Resources Management and are projected to rise by 2.5°C–6.5°C towards the through the implementation of basin management end of the 21st century depending on future emission principles is a key instrument for maintaining interstate pathways. Global warming leads to increased melting dialogue and an entry point to the climate-cryosphere- of snow and glaciers and thawing of permafrost and water nexus. As such, cooperation on transboundary as such affect the overall water balance. water management can be a driver for sustainable economic development and thus ultimately for cross- The mountain cryosphere is already changing and will border peace and stability. continue to change considerably towards the end of this century, depending on emission pathways. These Excellent examples of changes will dramatically alter the resource bases of projects and programmes Aralsk the communities and societies depending on water relevant to development Northern Lake Balkhash Aral Sea Ili delta 4 availability from glaciers, snow and permafrost. and cooperation in the (38) 5 region are testimony to KAZAKHSTAN Eastern Ili Economic development and population growth the willingness to step up Aral Sea CHN 4 Western Khorgos intensify impacts and risks in Central Asia. Therefore, adaptation solutions that Aral Sea risks related to water scarcity and changing hazards are integrative and ro- Aral Kum Desert KAZ 1.3 16 Ili basin 12 need to be assessed in the context of climatic and bust, and that address un- Chu-Talas basin Kapchagay Res. KAZ 2.2 Chu Almaty KAZ (other rivers) 1.5 non-climatic drivers in order to devise appropriate expected changes. Muynak KAZ 0.6 KAZ 10 Talas S adaptation solutions. yr 4.8 Da ry KYR 3.3 Karakalpakstan 7.9 a Taraz Bishkek Issyk-Kul 1.5 Akshirak Enilchek Sarygamysh Lake 1 Prospective Shymkent KYR 0.9 Tien-Shan Collector KYRGYZSTAN K a ra Aksu B Chirchik- Naryn o g Aral Sea basin a Aksu z Charvak G o Ahangaran l Tashauz 6.5 Tashkent 15 Horezm 4.4 UZBEKISTAN 9 UZB 10 KYR 3 Context (UZB) (37) Kara Darya Golden Age Lake Dashoguz Collector 4 CHINA (under construction) UZB 5.3 Aydar Lake TJK 2 Osh nt Lebap 3.9 1 Rivers of ka 2 Yar Ferghana Valley: 8 Kashgar Zar UZB 10 avs Kashgar Bukhara han TURKMENISTAN Samarkand KYR 0.1 5.3 Fedchenko Why this nexus brief Amu-Bukhara 5.2 Kafarnigan Central Asia Great Turkmen Collector Kashkadarya 0.3 The cryosphere – the frozen water component of our 1.2 Vaksh Water resource formation and use clear seasonality with a Dushanbe TAJIKISTAN Surhandarya Pamir planet – will undergo dramatic changes in the future if minimum flow in the win- TJK 6.6 Average water withdrawal Ashgabat Karshi 4.2 UZB Panj anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to ter (snow accumulation High water losses along Sherabad 1.4 0.6 1.5 (km³/year) Karakum Canal 1.5 Amu Darya Average flow 0.5 70 rise unchecked. Even if the global community achieves 4.8 (km³/year) season) and a maximum 0.2 20 30 ash A 5.5 Y arak trek 0.98 ar K the 1.5–2°C aspirational goal set by the Paris Agree- Karakum Canal 11 ka 10 flow in the summer (melt nt 5 ment, changes in the cryosphere will be massive. M season). Snow and gla- u 33 r g a Other rivers: 6.2 ciers substantially contrib- b Mountain regions above 2000 metres Kokcha T Mashad e j e Irrigated lands In the predominantly dry climate conditions of Central ute to run-off in spring and n Indus Asia, the role of the cryosphere is particularly import- summer, providing timely IRAN Drainage water and irrigation run-off AFGHANISTAN Re-use of drainage ant for water resources. The main sources of water in supplies to agriculture and PAKISTAN Kunduz Main glacier areas Central Asia are the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, compensating for reduced Srinagar Kabul River basin outline which are mostly fed by snow melt and glacier melt precipitation in low wa- Hari Rud Country boundary from the Pamir, Hindu Kush and Tien Shan mountain ter years. The snowpack 0 250 km Islamabad ranges. Snow and glacier-fed run-off usually shows a stores water seasonally Source: water ow and water use data www.cawater-info.net 2 ab en s h u C d In while glaciers store water for decades or even cen- Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan being among the mostly turies, compensating for fluctuations in precipitation irrigated areas worldwide (Figure 1). The agriculture during drought periods. sector contributes to about 20% of the GDP of the region and accounts for up to 50% of the labour force The Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers are at the heart of within the countries (International Crisis Group 2014). socio-economic development in Central Asia, supplying water for domestic and municipal uses, industrial This nexus brief explores the interactions between processes, agricultural production and hydropower. changes in the cryosphere due to climate change and Each sector is intrinsically linked, with water generating the consequences for water resources and hazard about 22% of the region’s electricity supply and the management in Central Asia. It analyses the status rivers accounting for 75% of the irrigated agriculture in of those changes and discusses policy responses and the region, with the lowlands of southern Kazakhstan, implications for development and cooperation. Figure 1: Water resource formation and use in Central Asia Map produced by Zoï Environment Network, 2018 Aralsk Northern Lake Balkhash Aral Sea Ili delta 4 (38) 5 KAZAKHSTAN Eastern Ili Aral Sea CHN 4 Western Khorgos Aral Sea Aral Kum Desert KAZ 1.3 16 Ili basin 12 Chu-Talas basin Kapchagay Res. KAZ 2.2 Chu Almaty KAZ (other rivers) 1.5 Muynak KAZ 0.6 KAZ 10 Talas S yr 4.8 Da ry KYR 3.3 Karakalpakstan 7.9 a Taraz Bishkek Issyk-Kul 1.5 Akshirak Enilchek Sarygamysh Lake 1 Prospective Shymkent KYR 0.9 Tien-Shan Collector KYRGYZSTAN K a ra Aksu B Chirchik- Naryn o g Aral Sea basin a Aksu z Charvak G o Ahangaran l Tashauz 6.5 Tashkent 15 Horezm 4.4 UZBEKISTAN 9 UZB 10 KYR 3 (UZB) (37) Kara Darya Golden Age Lake Dashoguz Collector 4 CHINA (under construction) UZB 5.3 Aydar Lake TJK 2 Osh nt Lebap 3.9 1 Rivers of ka 2 Yar Ferghana Valley: 8 Kashgar Zar UZB 10 avs Kashgar Bukhara han TURKMENISTAN Samarkand KYR 0.1 5.3 Fedchenko Amu-Bukhara 5.2 Kafarnigan Central Asia Kashkadarya 0.3 Great Turkmen Collector 1.2 Vaksh Water resource formation and use Dushanbe TAJIKISTAN Surhandarya Pamir TJK 6.6 Average water withdrawal Ashgabat Karshi 4.2 UZB Panj High water losses along Sherabad 1.4 0.6 1.5 (km³/year) Karakum Canal 1.5 Amu Darya Average flow 0.5 70 0.2 4.8 20 30 (km³/year) rakash Atre 0.98 5.5 Ya Ka k Karakum Canal 11 rka 10 nt 5 M u 33 r g a Other rivers: 6.2 b Mountain regions above 2000 metres Kokcha T Mashad e j e Irrigated lands n ndus IRAN I Drainage water and irrigation run-off AFGHANISTAN Re-use of drainage PAKISTAN Kunduz Main glacier areas Srinagar Kabul River basin outline Hari Rud Country boundary 0 250 km Islamabad Source: water ow and water use data www.cawater-info.net 3 ab en s h u C d In Facts & Figures Climate warming in Central Asia expected Projected loss of glacier mass by the end to exceed the global average of the 21st century Mean annual air temperature increases have already Glaciers in Central Asia are mainly found in Kyrgyzstan been observed across Central Asia. Warming trends (Tien Shan) and Tajikistan (Pamir) with some smaller are more pronounced in the lower elevation plains and glaciers in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Glaciers play intermontane valleys than at higher elevations. The a crucial role in the availability of water resources warming across Central Asia is expected to exceed in Central Asia throughout the year, and even in the global average, with the southernmost areas basins with a glacierised fraction of less than 5%, experiencing the greater shift in temperatures and glacier melt water can be an important contributor the northernmost parts showing a less pronounced to irrigation in the summer to compensate for scarce shift. Projections call for a 2.5°C increase in summer precipitation. temperature towards the end of this century for a low emission scenario and up to 6.5°C for a high Observations provide clear evidence (Figure 2) emission scenario compared with the 1951–1980 that glaciers are retreating in response to global period (Reyer et al. 2017). temperature increases (World Glacier Monitoring Centre, 2018). Glaciers are retreating at different In a world 2°C warmer than at pre-industrial times, rates, and the retreating trend is more pronounced heat extremes will be more frequent, and local in the Tien Shan range than in the Pamir. As smaller regions of Central Asia (south of 50°N from the glaciers have larger relative area losses than Caspian Sea to Central China) may experience heat bigger glaciers, some smaller glaciers have already extremes about five times more frequently than completely disappeared.