CDA l’Institut Institute CAD 7 ~ 20 198 13 VIMY PAPER NUMBER SIX THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR CANADA GEORGE PETROLEKAS – FERRY DE KERCKHOVE CDA INSTITUTE L’INSTITUT DE LA CAD VIMY PAPER CAHIER VIMY Conference of Defence Associations Institute Institut de la Conférence des associations de la défense The Conference of Defence Associations Institute L’Institut de la Conférence des associations de la is a charitable and non-partisan organisation défense est un organisme caritatif et non partisan whose mandate is to promote informed public qui a pour mandat de promouvoir un débat public debate on national security and defence issues. éclairé sur les enjeux de notre sécurité et de la défense nationale. 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VIMY PAPER NUMBER SIX THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR CANADA GEORGE PETROLEKAS – FERRY DE KERCKHOVE The Conference of Defence Associations Institute © February 2013 English version The Vimy Paper Vol. 6 (2013): The Strategic Outlook for Canada Petrolekas, George - De Kerckhove, Ferry Print: ISBN 978–0–9865362–3–6 Pdf: ISBN 978–0–9865362–4–3 Version française Cahier Vimy 6 (2013): Les perspectives stratégiques du Canada Petrolekas, George - De Kerckhove, Ferry Book : ISBN 978–0–9865362–5–0 PDF : ISBN 978–0–9865362–6–7 VIMY PAPER NUMBER SIX THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR CANADA 2013 AUTHORS GEORGE PETROLEKAS FERRY DE KERCKHOVE Former Advisor to two Chiefs of the Defence Staff Senior Fellow, University of Ottawa Canadian Forces Liaison to NATO’s Distinguished Research Fellow, CDFAI Operational Command for ISAF Former High Commissioner to Pakistan International Telecommunications Executive Former Ambassador to Indonesia Member of the Board, CDA Institute Former Ambassador to Egypt Member of the Board, CDA Institute The authors wish to acknowledge the extensive copy editing in both French and English by LGen(ret) Richard Evraire and Mr. Paul Hillier over and above their contributions as advisors to this paper ii THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR CANADA ADVISORS** – Note: International Advisors did not comment on Canadian domestic policies Mr. Tom D’Aquino* BGen (ret) Don Macnamara* Former CEO the Canadian Council of Chief Former professor of international business, Queen’s Executives University The Hon Lloyd Axworthy LGen (ret) Michel Maisonneuve* Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Former Chief of Staff NATO ACT Coronel (ret) Carlos Ojeda Bennett (CL) Gen (ret) Paul Manson* National Academy of Political and Strategic Studies, Former Chief of the Defence Staff Chilean Department of National Defence (ANEPE) Col (ret) Dr. Peter Mansoor (US) Mr. David C. Bennett (US) Founding Director, U.S. Army/Marines Counter– Former U.S. Diplomat insurgency Centre and Chair, Military History, The Professor, U.S. Army War College Ohio State University Col (ret) Brett Boudreau* Mr. Joshua Matthewman Director Public Affairs, Chairman NATO’s Military Analyst – CDA Institute Committee Gen (ret) Klaus Naumann (DE) Mr. Conrad Black Former Chief of Defence and Former Chairman of Author, Columnist, Financier, founder of the NATO’s Military Committee National Post and member of the U.K. House of Lords Col (ret) Alain Pellerin Executive Director – CDA Institute Dr. Ian Brodie Former Chief of Staff to the Prime Minister Mr. David Perry Defence Analyst – CDA Institute and PhD Candidate, BGen (ret) Gaston Côté Carleton University Former Commander JTF–2 Gen (ret) David H. Petraeus (US) Mr. Paul Chapin* Former Commander CENTCOM, former COMISAF and Former Director General International Security– former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency DFAIT Mr. Colin Robertson* Ms. Lyse Doucet Senior Strategic Advisor, McKenna, Long and Chief International Correspondent, BBC News Aldridge LLP, Vice President and Senior Fellow, Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute LGen (ret) Richard Evraire* Former Military Representative to NATO Mr. Stanley R. Sloan (US) Professor, Middlebury College, Vermont BGen (ret) Bernie Goetze* Former Secretary to NATO’s Military Committee Mr. Brian Stewart Former Chief Correspondent CBC News and Gen (ret) Ray Henault* Distinguished Fellow, Munk Centre Former Chief of the Defence Staff and Chairman of NATO’s Military Committee Ms. Frances Fragos Townsend (US) Former White House Homeland Security Advisor and Mr. Paul Hillier CNN contributor Research Coordinator – CDA Institute *Member of the Board of Directors, CDA Institute Ex– Amb Claude Laverdure* Former Ambassador to France **The listing of advisors does not imply concurrence with the authors’ findings rather they were a consultative resource to whom the authors are grateful. CDA INSTITUTE | VIMY PAPER THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR CANADA iii FOREWORD The Conference of Defence Associations Institute (CDA Institute) is pleased to present the 2013 edition of the Vimy Paper: The Strategic Outlook for Canada. The 2012 edition was well–received by media, policymakers and academics, clearly underscoring the need for this type of independent, forward–looking and vibrant analysis of the impacts of the evolving national and international situation on Canada’s defence and security policies. The CDA Institute prides itself in its ability to bring together scholars and practitioners from all sectors of society – civil, military, business, Government, NGO’s and political leaders – to provide for this type of analysis and advice and to make it publicly available. Indeed, the quality of the 2012 Vimy Paper has made it required reading at the Canadian Forces College and it has been included in readings at various universities dealing with security and defence policy as well as with Canada’s role in international affairs. The 2012 Vimy Paper offered a number of prescient predictions and made a number of recommendations to Government, notably on the development of a National Security Strategy for Canada; and an update on the Canada First Defence Strategy, capital spending, Ballistic Missile Defence policy, regional crises, Afghanistan and Canada’s potentially expanded role in other areas of the world. We may not have gotten it right in all areas, but in general our strategic outlook for Canada has been in tune with Canada’s broad perspectives on needs, demands, capabilities and zones of tension and conflict. Our perspective on 2013 is inspired by the significant events which have occurred over the course of the past year. Indeed, 2012 was replete with challenges which tugged at the core of Canada’s interests and tested the interface between those interests, our fundamental values and our ability to respond to those challenges at home and abroad. These included key defence procurement decisions in a changing political and strategic environment, an ongoing commitment by Government to support military and police training in Afghanistan and other international commitments while simultaneously seeking to reduce the budget deficit, ongoing Transformation across Government – including DND and the Canadian Forces, and the F–35 and shipbuilding debates, among others. It should also be noted that the 2013 Vimy Paper has benefited significantly from other studies undertaken and published by the Institute in 2012, and from analyses conducted by other reputable defence and security Institutes and academic institutions regarding some of the most contentious issues facing Canada today. This has led to the development of a structure for the 2013 Vimy Paper which is similar to that of last year’s. In addition, having presented specific recommendations to the Government in the Vimy Paper, we now provide an assessment of the degree to which the Government has acted upon those recommendations. In general terms, the CDA Institute has concluded that many of the recommendations have yet to be addressed and that there is still much work to be done. Our recommendations for 2013 will reinforce this belief. While this paper has two principal authors, it has benefited from significant debate and inputs from the members of the Institute’s Advisory Committee and members of the Board of Directors of the Institute. As always, while the Institute is comfortable with the analysis, findings and recommendations provided in this paper, it also hopes that they will stimulate additional debate. The CDA Institute also welcomes any feedback, comments, criticisms and alternative views from readers. The 2013 Vimy Paper offers a well–researched view on the Defence and Security issues that should matter to Canadians. It has been produced by the CDA Institute with a view to providing a basis and an incentive for an informed public debate on these important issues. General (ret) Ray Henault, CMM, MSC, CD President of the CDA Institute CDA INstITUTE | VIMY PAPER THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK FOR CANADA v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In its 2012 Strategic Outlook for Canada, the CDA Institute underscored trends that will most certainly have an impact on every country in the world in 2013. The most significant of these trends, a world–wide financial and economic downturn, will combine with home–grown “war weariness” and a general societal malaise and cause Canadian decision makers to give priority consideration to domestic issues that have an unmistakable link to our national interests. Two of these are safety and security. The level of safety and security enjoyed by Canadians is viewed as much from an economic standpoint as it is from the point of view of freedom from threats to internal and international peace and security, both of which foster trade on which Canada depends for its economic well–being.