Electoral Risks Management PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY 2019/2020 Capacity Enhancement in Electoral Risk Management through a Multi-Stakeholder Coordinated Approach to Contribute to Peaceful and Credible Elections in Nepal National Election Observation Committee (NEOC) National Secretariat Satoaki Memorial Building, Kupondole-10, Lalitpur, Nepal G.P.O. Box: 26550, Phone: + 977 (1) 5541502, Fax: 977 (1) 5541503 Email: [email protected]/[email protected] www.neocelection.org PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY 1 2 PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY Electoral Risks Management PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY 2019/2020 Capacity Enhancement in Electoral Risk Management through a Multi-Stakeholder Coordinated Approach to Contribute to Peaceful and Credible Elections in Nepal National Election Observation Committee (NEOC) National Secretariat Satoaki Memorial Building, Kupondole-10, Lalitpur, Nepal G.P.O. Box: 26550, Phone: + 977 (1) 5541502, Fax: 977 (1) 5541503 Email: [email protected]/[email protected] www.neocelection.org PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY 3 Electoral Risks Management PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY Executive Editor : Gopal Krishna Siwakoti, PhD Advisory Panel : Surya Prasad Shrestha Prof. Kapil Shrestha Bhawani Prasad Kharel Expert Team : Shanti Ram Bimali Diwas Pant Roshma Rai Support Team : Deepa Luintel Binda Nepali Year of Publication : 2019/2020 No. of copies : 1500 © Copyright : NEOC/International IDEA Financial Assistance : International IDEA Printing : Ganga Jamuna Press Pvt. Ltd. National Election Observation Committee (NEOC) National Secretariat Satoaki Memorial Building, Kupondole-10, Lalitpur, Nepal G.P.O. Box: 26550, Phone: + 977 (1) 5541502, Fax: 977 (1) 5541503 Email: [email protected]/[email protected] www.neocelection.org Disclaimer National Election Observation Committee (NEOC) informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the text belong solely to NEOC and not neces- sarily to the International IDEA. 4 PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY Acknowledgement On behalf of the National Election Observation Committee (NEOC), I would like to extend my special thanks to our Secretary General Dr. Gopal Krishna Siwakoti for his sterling performance in coordinating the project and generating such a brilliant knowledge product in a very short span of time. Credit goes to our resource partner International IDEA for providing necessary financial and technical support in carrying out the perception survey on the risks factors of electoral process. A special gratitude we give to Antonio Spinelli, Shanti Ram Bimali, and Diwas Pant of International IDEA whose contribution in stimulating suggestions and encouragement, greatly helped us accomplish the Survey especially in the area of data collection technique and protocol. I would like to extend my sincere appreciation to the Coordinators of NEOC Provincial Committees Dr. Kamal Prasad Limbu, Ms. Urmila Yadav, Mr. Moti Ram Phuyal, Mr. Binod Paudel, Ms. Tika Bista, Mr. Suresh Kumar Gautam and Mr. Debi Prasad Khanal and the Surveyor Team members late Mr. Sanjiv Meheta, Mr. Kamal Prasad Shah, Ms. Pushpa Bhandari, Ms. Kunjani Pariyar 'Pyaasi', Mr. Bhupendra Pokhrel, Ms. Sunita Sharma and Ms. Sushma Regmi from Province No. 1, 2, Bagmati, Gandaki, 5, Karnali and Sudur-paschim respectively for their successful coordination of the field assignment. Our special thanks go to Ms. Pranita Thapa and Mr. Sachin Shrestha for their expert contribution for data processing, tabulation and interpretation. Without the hard work, dedication and continued support and effort of our field surveyors, despite adversarial monsoon season, this Perception Survey would not have been a success. I would also like to express my earnest gratitude to all Province-based stakeholders, trainers and the respondents, who gave their precious time and willingness to promote our endeavor and fill the questionnaire that we have developed and disseminated. Surya Prasad Shrestha Chairperson PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY 5 6 PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY Table of Content TITLE Page No. Context and Rationale ............................................................................... 1 Potential Areas of Risks • Delimitation of Electoral Constituencies ............................................ 4 • The Legal Framework ......................................................................... 5 • Voter Registration ............................................................................... 6 • Electoral Education ............................................................................. 6 • Political Financing .............................................................................. 7 • Compliance with Code of Conduct .................................................... 8 • Campaign Financing ........................................................................... 9 • Electoral Administration ................................................................... 10 • Electoral Justice/Dispute Resolution ................................................. 11 • External Voting Provisions ............................................................... 12 Scope of the Survey Project ..................................................................... 14 Diagnosis of Risks on Electoral Process 1. Background characteristic of the respondents ................................... 18 2. Potential Risks .................................................................................. 22 3. Most potential risks identified by the respondents by Province ....... 26 Recommendations for Future Direction ................................................ 33 ANNEX: Province-wise Potential Risks Identified by Respondents ........ 38 PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY 7 Abbreviations ANFREL : Asian Network for Free Elections CoC : Code of Conduct CRPD : Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities CSO : Civil Society Organization ECN : Election Commission, Nepal EDR : Electoral Dispute Resolution EOCG : Election Observation Coordination Group ERM : Electoral Risk Management EVM : Electronic Voting Machine FPTP : First-Past-The-Post GESI : Gender Equality and Social Inclusion IDEA : International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance JEOC : Joint Election Operation Centre NEOC : National Election Observation Committee PR : Proportional Representation 8 PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY Context and Rationale Acts or threats of coercion, intimidation or physical harm perpetrated to affect an electoral process or that arise in the context of electoral competition are a common phenomenon. When perpetrated to affect an electoral process, acts of electoral risks with or without the use of violence may be employed to influence the process of elections–such as efforts to delay, disrupt, or derail a poll–and to influence the outcomes: the determining of winners in competitive races for political office or to secure approval or disapproval of referendum questions. In this connection, based on NEOC’s more than two and half decade-long nationwide field-tested overall experience in the implementation of electoral education and conducting election observation in all elections held in the country after 1991, NEOC’s central leadership as well as its local chapters (provincial and district) have realized that it is vital to closely understand and assess the causes of prevalent social, political and cultural conflicts and further identify newly emerged structural causes of electoral risks (pervasive and long standing factors that become built into policies, structures and culture of a society and may create the preconditions for such risks). Also, assessing the proximate causes of risks (signs likely to trigger subtle or violent conflict or their further escalation and can be symptomatic of structural causes. In the past, we have experienced through our filed-based constant engagement that electoral risks have various dynamics at different levels: national, provincial and local. Such risks emerge in different forms and formats depending on the local political, social, cultural and other related factors. Understanding and explaining outbreaks of election-related violence is obviously a complex task; and predicting triggering factors for a possible violence-ridden elections and measures to effectively and timely curb such a scenario can’t be prescribed in advance. In this context, the electoral risk management tool (ERMT), which is designed as a software-based PUBLIC PERCEPTION SURVEY 1 program is extremely instrumental in empowering the concerned agencies with immediate responsibility to prevent violence and ensure peaceful and credible elections. ERMT helps build the capacities of users (in our context Election Commission, security sector, CSOs and other state and non-state institutions) to closely understand, analyze and mitigate electoral risks. As part of trust-building and dialogue process, a proper context overview is critical to ensuring that the ERMT is customized to allow the user to focus on the most important risks during the implementation (data retrieval, processing, validation and dissemination) phases—pre-election, during election and post-election. This process of training, coordination, information exchange and overall empowerment of the concerned agencies through the use of the Tool entails an analysis of the history and dynamics of conflict and, in this respect, an assessment of the potential risks to the forthcoming elections. The context overview aims to identify: (a) geographical regions that face increased electoral risks;