Upper Lee Valley Transport for London Development Infrastructure Study Final Report Our ref: 22763001 September 2015 Upper Lee Valley Transport for London Development Infrastructure Study Final Report Our ref: 22763001 September 2015 Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Davies Gleave Transport for London 28-32 Upper Ground Windsor House London SE1 9PD 42-50 Victoria Street London SW1H 0TL +44 20 7910 5000 www.steerdaviesgleave.com Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material for Transport for London. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer Davies Gleave has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer Davies Gleave shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer Davies Gleave for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. Contents 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................................................... 1 Aims and Objectives ..................................................................................................................... 1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 2 Limitations of Study ...................................................................................................................... 6 Contents of Report ....................................................................................................................... 6 2 Planned Development – Base Scenario ................................................................................ 7 Development ................................................................................................................................ 7 Land Values ................................................................................................................................. 14 3 Social Infrastructure – Base Scenario ................................................................................. 19 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 19 Education .................................................................................................................................... 20 Healthcare .................................................................................................................................. 23 4 Transport Infrastructure – Base Scenario ........................................................................... 28 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 28 Rail and Stations Improvements ................................................................................................. 28 Bus Improvements ...................................................................................................................... 30 Walking and Cycling Improvements ........................................................................................... 30 Highway Improvements .............................................................................................................. 33 Public Realm ............................................................................................................................... 35 5 Utility Infrastructure – Base Scenario ................................................................................ 36 Flood Risk Management ............................................................................................................. 36 Waste .......................................................................................................................................... 37 Decentralised Energy Systems .................................................................................................... 38 Electricity .................................................................................................................................... 38 Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 39 Water .......................................................................................................................................... 39 Broadband .................................................................................................................................. 39 6 Base Scenario Funding Gap ............................................................................................... 40 September 2015 Model Purpose ........................................................................................................................... 40 Model Assumptions .................................................................................................................... 40 Funding Gap – All base schemes ................................................................................................ 43 Prioritisation of Schemes ............................................................................................................ 44 Funding Gap – Priority Schemes only ......................................................................................... 45 7 Funding Potential ............................................................................................................. 46 Potential Funding Sources .......................................................................................................... 46 Mayoral CIL ................................................................................................................................. 46 Tax Increment Financing (TIF)..................................................................................................... 47 Contributions from Council Tax .................................................................................................. 47 New Homes Bonus ...................................................................................................................... 48 Contributions from Stamp Duty, Land Tax (SDLT) ...................................................................... 48 Workplace Parking Levy (WPL) ................................................................................................... 49 Structures to facilitate the delivery of infrastructure................................................................. 50 Mayoral Development Corporations (MDCs) ............................................................................. 50 Affordable Housing Tests ............................................................................................................ 51 Funding Mechanism Modelling Assumptions and Revenues ..................................................... 52 Council tax .................................................................................................................................. 56 New Homes Bonus ...................................................................................................................... 57 Impact on ULV Funding Gap ....................................................................................................... 58 Funding Constraints - Mayoral Area Plans ................................................................................. 59 8 Higher Growth Scenarios – General Approach ................................................................... 60 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 60 Methodology .............................................................................................................................. 60 9 Four-Tracking Scenario ..................................................................................................... 68 Development .............................................................................................................................. 68 Social Infrastructure ................................................................................................................... 68 Transport Infrastructure ............................................................................................................. 69 Funding Gap ................................................................................................................................ 70 10 Crossrail 2 Scenario .......................................................................................................... 72 Development .............................................................................................................................. 72 September 2015 Social Infrastructure ................................................................................................................... 72 Transport Infrastructure ............................................................................................................