CUSTOMIZED DRG COUNTRY DATA PORTRAIT ON PAKISTAN DRG LEARNING, EVALUATION, AND RESEARCH (DRG-LER) ACTIVITY II Prepared under Contract No.: GS-10F-0033M / 7200AA18M00016, Tasking N009 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Aiysha Varraich and Valeriya Mechkova, University of Gothenburg, and Brigitte Seim, University of North Carolina- Chapel Hill, under a subcontract with NORC at the University of Chicago. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. DRG LEARNING, EVALUATION, AND RESEARCH (DRG-LER) ACTIVITY II TASKING N009 CUSTOMIZED COUNTRY PORTRAIT PAKISTAN (JUNE 2019) Prepared under Contract No.: GS-10F-0033M/ 7200AA18M00016 Submitted to: Brandy Witthoft, COR Prepared by: Laura Maxwell, University of Gothenburg Valeriya Mechkova, University of Gothenburg Brigitte Seim, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Submitted by: NORC at the University of Chicago Attention: Renée Hendley, Program Manager Bethesda, MD 20814 Tel: 301- 634-9489; E-mail: [email protected] DISCLAIMER The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. USAID.GOV DRG LEARNING, EVALUATION, AND RESEARCH (DRG-LER) ACTIVITY II TASKING N009: PAKISTAN | I TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 2 TRENDS IN DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS INDICATORS ............................................................................................................................ 3 DEMOCRACY ......................................................................................................................................... 3 GOVERNANCE ....................................................................................................................................... 5 CORRUPTION ........................................................................................................................................ 8 HUMAN RIGHTS AND CIVIL LIBERTIES ...................................................................................... 10 CIVIL SOCIETY AND MEDIA ........................................................................................................... 14 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................... 17 APPENDIX A, VARIETIES OF DEMOCRACY (V-DEM) PROJECT ........................... 18 APPENDIX B, INDICATORS AND INDICES FEATURED IN THE REPORT ......... 21 APPENDIX C, REFERENCES .............................................................................................. 27 USAID.GOV DRG LEARNING, EVALUATION, AND RESEARCH (DRG-LER) ACTIVITY II TASKING N009: PAKISTAN | II LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Main Democracy Trends. 1971 – 2017 .............................................................................. 3 Figure 1a. Pakistan .............................................................................................................................. 3 Figure 1b. Select South Asian countries ........................................................................................ 4 Figure 2. Accountability and Rule of Law ............................................................................................. 6 Figure 2a. Horizontal accountability, Pakistan 1971 – 2017 ...................................................... 6 Figure 2b. Rule of Law, Pakistan ...................................................................................................... 6 Figure 3. Rule of Law and Corruption .................................................................................................. 9 Figure 3a. Corruption, Pakistan ....................................................................................................... 9 Figure 3b. Corruption, select countries ........................................................................................ 9 Figure 4. Human Rights and Civil Liberties ........................................................................................ 11 Figure 4a. Civil Liberties, Pakistan ................................................................................................. 11 Figure 4b. Civil Liberties, select South Asian countries ........................................................... 12 Figure 4c. Freedom of Expression ................................................................................................ 13 Figure 5. Civil Society and Media, Pakistan ........................................................................................ 15 Figure 5a. Civil Society and Media in Pakistan ............................................................................ 15 Figure 5b. Women’s Civil liberties and political participation ................................................ 16 USAID.GOV DRG LEARNING, EVALUATION, AND RESEARCH (DRG-LER) ACTIVITY II TASKING N009: PAKISTAN | III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This data portrait describes the development of Pakistan in terms of democracy, governance, and human rights protection. Using data from the V-Dem project1 and a few other sources, the portrait covers the period from 1971 to 2017. We highlight general trends in the three key areas, compare Pakistan to selected countries from the South Asian region, and closely examine several areas of particular concern: the imbalance between the army and government institutions such as the judiciary; state capture and corruption; and the dangers posed to civil society and media pluralism. There are several key findings that follow from our analysis. From 2008, when Pakistan first experienced an elected civilian government, through 2014, it performed well on high-level democracy indices. However, performance on these democracy indices falters around 2014-2016, indicating a strong reappearance of the military in government issues such as in the pre-election environment, suppression of civil society, censoring of the media, and politicization of the judiciary. Further, we find that the quality of elections (measured using V-Dem’s free and fair elections index) continues to be an area of weakness for Pakistan in its democratization trajectory and for public confidence in Pakistan’s political institutions. Nonetheless, one optimistic sign is the latest poll carried out by International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research, showing a 57% approval rating of the current prime minister Imran Khan.2 In terms of governance, the most problematic issues are the continued corruption within the executive and the pervasive influence of the military on democratic institutions. Although the analysis suggests that public corruption has remained relatively low since 2008, public perception does not align with this improvement. This disconnect between empirical trends and public opinion is concerning, as anti-corruption efforts should remain focused on the comparatively high levels of corruption in the executive and judiciary. Finally, the primary finding within the human rights sector is that women’s participation in civil society has increased. 1 A longer description of the V-Dem project and data is available at the end of this report. For more information about the project see v-dem.net. 2 https://www.dawn.com/news/1470150 USAID.GOV DRG LEARNING, EVALUATION, AND RESEARCH (DRG-LER) ACTIVITY II TASKING N009: PAKISTAN | 1 INTRODUCTION Using data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute and select other sources, this data portrait tracks democracy, governance, and protection of human rights in Pakistan from 1971 through 2017.3 In its 71-year history as a nation state, Pakistan has had a tumultuous experience with democracy, with particular historical events and trends marking dramatic shifts in its democratic trajectory. The first event that caused dramatic change is the secession of West Pakistan in 1971 (now Bangladesh). The second factor characterising Pakistan’s democratic trajectory are the cycles of civilian and military rule, each of which would start with high expectations by the population followed by misgovernance and poor delivery (by the civilian governments) or repression (by the military).4 The final factor affecting Pakistan’s path to democratization is the military’s constant meddling in steering much of Pakistan’s policy agenda, driven primarily by security concerns. The influence of the military is seen at both the regional level, highlighted foremost by the fluctuating relationship with India, and international level, punctuated by its strategic location in the region and Pakistan’s role as ally to NATO in the war against terror. That said, there are also trends that highlight Pakistan’s efforts towards democratization and give cause for optimism. First and foremost is the holding of regular general elections, with the election of 2018 marking the 11th general election in the country’s history. Second, Imran Khan’s victory is significant. It signifies an end to the monopoly of the two power-holding parties of the past (the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) to