Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis Kristian Stokke, Roman Vakulchuk, Indra Øverland Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Publisher: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Copyright: © Norwegian Institute of International Affairs 2018 ISSN: 1894-650X The report has been commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They should not be interpreted as reflecting the views, official policy or position of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. The text may not be printed in part or in full without the permission of the authors. Visiting address: C.J. Hambros plass 2d Address: P.O. Box 8159 Dep. NO-0033 Oslo, Norway Internet: www.nupi.no E-mail: [email protected] Tel: [+ 47] 22 99 40 00 Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis Kristian Stokke, Roman Vakulchuk, Indra Øverland Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2018 Contents Map of Myanmar .................................................................................................................. VI About the report .................................................................................................................. VII Authors ................................................................................................................................. VIII List of acronyms ................................................................................................................... IX Executive summary .............................................................................................................. XI Risk analysis: Country risks and their implications for engagement in Myanmar ....... XVII 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 Purpose, structure and methods of the study ........................................................... 1 Political-historical background ................................................................................... 2 Recent interaction between Norway and Myanmar ................................................... 5 2. Politics .......................................................................................................................... 8 The state in Myanmar .................................................................................................. 8 Political structures and actors .................................................................................... 17 Challenges for transformative democratic politics ................................................... 35 3. Economics and social issues ...................................................................................... 37 Economic structure and growth .................................................................................. 37 Natural resource management ................................................................................... 38 Trade and FDI ................................................................................................................ 42 Demography ................................................................................................................. 44 Composition of aid and main donors ......................................................................... 44 4. Conflict and stabilization ............................................................................................ 46 Causes of ethnic conflict ............................................................................................. 46 Peace initiatives ........................................................................................................... 47 The Rohingya crisis ...................................................................................................... 52 5. Migration, climate change and humanitarian needs ................................................ 56 6. Main human rights challenges ................................................................................... 62 References ........................................................................................................................... 65 Tables Table 1. The general party system in Myanmar ....................................................................... 21 Table 2. Distribution of seats in the Union Parliament after the 2015 elections .............. 22 Table 3. Alliances among EAOs and participation in ceasefire agreements ..................... 25 Table 4. Electric power generation mix (installed capacity, 2014) ...................................... 39 Figures Figure I. Classification of risks for external engagement in Myanmar ............................... XVII Figure 1. Major ethnic groups and administrative units in Myanmar ................................. 3 Figure 2. Norwegian aid to Myanmar by sector, 2006–2016 .............................................. 6 Figure 3. Channels for Norwegian aid in 2016 ........................................................................ 6 Figure 4. Myanmar’s score on the Fragile State Index and its political indicators, 2008–2017 ................................................................................................................ 15 Figure 5. Perceptions on present and future economic conditions .................................... 16 Figure 6. Self-identity, by religion and ethnicity .................................................................... 17 Figure 7. The transition discourse on reforms in Myanmar .................................................. 19 Figure 8. Location of active ethnic armed organizations and major development projects ................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 9. Types and functions of civil society organizations ................................................ 29 Figure 10. Population by religion, 2014 ................................................................................... 30 Figure 11. Myanmar total FDI vs. petroleum and power FDI .................................................. 43 Figure 12. FDI in Myanmar by country of origin ...................................................................... 43 Figure 13. The shifting geography of conflict and ceasefire zones ..................................... 48 Figure 14. Key actors in the Rohingya crisis ............................................................................ 53 Figure 15. Number of migrants by type and host country ..................................................... 56 Figure 16. Displacement of Myanmar population over time ................................................. 57 Figure 17. New internal displacement due to natural disasters ........................................... 59 Figure 18. Myanmar’s freedom status, 1998–2017 ................................................................ 62 Map of Myanmar 94 96 98 J 100 102 ° ° Indian ° i ° ° 28 n ° Line s Xichang Chinese h a MYANMAR Line J MYANMAR i a n Tinsukia g BHUTAN Putao Lijiang aputra Jorhat Shingbwiyang M hm e ra k Dukou B KACHIN o Guwahati Makaw n 26 26 g ° ° INDI STATE A n Shillong Lumding i w d Dali in Myitkyina h Kunming C Baoshan Imphal Hopin Tengchong BANGLADE SH IN A Bhamo C H 24° 24° SAGAING Dhaka Katha Lincang Mawlaik L Namhkam a n DIVISION c Y a uan Gejiu Kalemya n (R Falam g ed I ) Barisal r ( r Lashio M a S e w k a o a Hakha l n Shwebo w d g d e ) Chittagong y e n 22 22 Monywa ° ° CHIN Maymyo Jinghong NAM Sagaing Mandalay VIET STATE SHAN STATE Pongsali Pakokku Myingyan Ta-kaw- Kengtung MANDALAY Muang Xai Chauk Meiktila MAGWAY Taunggyi DIVISION Möng-Pan PEOPLE'S Minbu Magway Houayxay LAO 20° 20° Sittwe (Akyab) Taungdwingyi DEMOCRATIC DIVISION y d EPUBLIC RAKHINE d R Ramree I. a Naypyitaw Loikaw w a KAYAH STATE r r Cheduba I. I Prome (Pye) STATE e Bay Chiang Mai M kong of Bengal Vientiane Sandoway (Viangchan) BAGO Lampang 18 18° ° DIVISION M a e Henzada N Bago a m YANGON P i f n n o Thatona Pathein g DIVISION f b l a u t Pa-an r G a A M Khon Kaen YEYARWARDY YangonBilugyin I. KAYIN ATE 16 16 DIVISION Mawlamyine ST ° ° Pyapon Amherst AI L AN D M TH o ut dy MON hs o wad Nakhon f the Irra STATE Sawan Nakhon Preparis Island Ratchasima (MYANMAR) Ye Coco Islands 92 (MYANMAR) 94 Bangkok 14° 14° ° ° Dawei (Krung Thep) National capital Launglon Bok Islands Division or state capital Andaman Sea CAMBODIA Town, village TANINTHARYI Major airport DIVISION Mergui International boundary 12° Division or state boundary 12° Main road Mergui n d Secondary road Archipelago G u l f o f T h a i l a Railroad 0 100 200 300 km Chumphon The boundaries and names shown and the designations Kawthuang 10 used on this map do not imply official endorsement or ° acceptance by the United Nations. 10 0 100 200 mi ° 96° 98° 100° 102° Map No. 4168 Rev. 3 UNITED NATIONS Department of Field Support June 2012 Cartographic Section VI Myanmar, Map No. 4168 Rev.3, June 2012, UNITED NATIONS About the report In June 2016, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Comprehensive Terms of Reference (ToR) Affairs (MFA) commissioned NUPI to provide were developed to serve as a general template for political economy analyses of eleven countries all eleven country analyses. The country-specific (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Haiti, Malawi, Mali, ToR and scope of these analyses were further Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Somalia, South determined in meetings