Turkey’s Evolving Dynamics CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Strategic Choices for U.S.-Turkey Relations CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1800 K Street | Washington, DC 20006 director Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 Stephen J. Flanagan E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org deputy director Samuel J. Brannen principal authors Bulent Aliriza Edward C. Chow Andrew C. Kuchins Haim Malka Julianne Smith contributing authors Ian Lesser Eric Palomaa Alexandros Petersen research coordinator Kaley Levitt March 2009 ISBN 978-0-89206-576-9 Final Report of the CSIS U.S.-Turkey Strategic Initiative CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Ë|xHSKITCy065769zv*:+:!:+:! Türk-Amerikan Stratejik Girisimi¸ CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Turkey’s Evolving Dynamics Strategic Choices for U.S.-Turkey Relations DIRECTOR Stephen J. Flanagan DEPUTY DIRECTOR Samuel J. Brannen PRINCIPAL AUTHORS Bulent Aliriza Edward C. Chow Andrew C. Kuchins Haim Malka Julianne Smith CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Ian Lesser Eric Palomaa Alexandros Petersen RESEARCH COORDINATOR Kaley Levitt March 2009 Final Report of the CSIS U.S.-Turkey Strategic Initiative Türk-Amerikan Stratejik Girisimi¸ About CSIS In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and Inter- national Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmak- ers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions. Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected world. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed in this publica- tion should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2009 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Cover photographs: U.S. President Obama: http://change.gov/newsroom/entry/new_official_ portrait_released; Prime Minister Erdogan:˘ http://eng.akparti.org.tr/english/photogallery.html; Turkey, NASA: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=778 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data CIP information available upon request. ISBN 978-0-89206-576-9 Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 Tel: (202) 775-3119 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org 2 contents Foreword v Acknowledgments vii Executive Summary ix Introduction and Context xxi 1. Turkey’s Changing Dynamics 1 Bulent Aliriza Turkish Demographics: A Strategic Assessment 12 Eric Palomaa 2. Turkey and Europe: A Widening Gap? 19 Julianne Smith Cyprus: Can the Stalemate Be Overcome? 32 Ian Lesser 3. Turkey and the Middle East: Rebalancing Interests 37 Haim Malka 4. Turkey, Russia, the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and Central Asia 61 Andrew C. Kuchins and Alexandros Petersen 5. Turkey as an Energy Bridge 73 Edward C. Chow 6. Implications for U.S.-Turkey Relations 81 Stephen J. Flanagan and Samuel J. Brannen Appendix A. Oil and Gas Pipelines 97 Appendix B. Turkey’s Foreign Trade 99 About the Authors 101 | iii foreword Senior Advisory Group of the U.S.-Turkey Strategic Initiative Relations between the United States and Turkey stand at a critical juncture. Turkey is a key ally in the advancement of U.S. interests vis-à-vis the Middle East, Eurasia, and global energy diversifica- tion. Turkey still sees the United States as its closest ally and wants to be a partner in advancing mutual interests, particularly in its immediate environs. This confluence of interests gives revital- ization of bilateral ties greater urgency. Yet the relationship remains somewhat strained and lacks the strategic character it once enjoyed. The two governments have made steady progress during the past few years to repair the damage done by differences over the Iraq War and the handling of its turbulent consequences. The visits by President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hil- lary Rodham Clinton during the first few months of the administration suggest a commitment to further strengthening relations. However, much remains to be done. The first 40 years of the U.S.-Turkish relationship centered heavily on military cooperation. Today the complexity of the relationship has outpaced the capacity of routine diplomatic contacts and existing consultative mechanisms. The Obama administration has an opportunity to energize this relationship and set it on a sound, long-term footing. This will require sustained, high-level political engagement, close consultations, and carefully managed policy coordination owing to the differing geostrategic positions and policy priorities of the two governments. Both countries, however, will be better able to realize their mutual goals and prevent lesser disputes from disrupt- ing this cooperation if such an endeavor is initiated. U.S.-Turkey relations should focus on strategic issues of mutual concern. Close U.S.-Turkish cooperation will be crucial to the long-term stability and economic recovery of Iraq, as well as to President Obama’s commitment to remove all combat forces from Iraq responsibly in 2011. Turkey will remain a key logistics hub for operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkey’s new diplo- matic activism, from its efforts to promote cooperation in the Caucasus and its evolving role as a mediator among longtime rivals in the Middle East, should be embraced by the United States and Europe as an opportunity. As members of the Group of Twenty (G-20), both the United States and Turkey should continue their cooperation to address the global economic crisis and find ways to deepen and diversify bilateral trade and investment. Turkey has been buffeted in recent years by turmoil in its neighborhood, beginning with the consequences of the Iraq war, then again with the Russian invasion of Georgia in the summer of 2008. Turkish leaders will continue to pursue policies that seek to avoid such regional instability, and they expect understanding from Washington on this score. Washington, too, has the right to expect that Ankara will behave as a loyal ally when mutual interests are threatened. This report, prepared by seven senior CSIS scholars and two colleagues from other institu- tions, offers a comprehensive and balanced assessment of the uncertain state of Turkey’s domes- tic political and social dynamics and the complexity of its relations with its neighbors. It reflects extensive field research in Turkey and neighboring countries as well as consultations with a wide | v range of officials, scholars, journalists, and leaders of business and trade associations. The CSIS team also maintained a dialog with scholars from the Ankara-based research institute Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı (TEPAV) who are undertaking a parallel review examining the relationship from the Turkish perspective. Their review will be complete in April 2009. This report considers the implications of these developments within Turkey and in Turk- ish foreign policy for relations with the United States and Europe. Grounded in this analysis, it outlines a concrete agenda for U.S.-Turkish cooperation and a detailed framework for managing this relationship. Major challenges lie ahead both in the bilateral relationship and with respect to Turkey’s future course. The United States can and should play a constructive role. The Senior Advisory Group to the U.S.-Strategic Initiative met four times during the course of the past year to offer its counsel and candid feedback on the work undertaken by the CSIS schol- ars. The group did not exercise editorial control over the content. It is united in its belief that the U.S.-Turkish relationship is vitally important to U.S. national interests and to peace and stability in the world. Senior Advisory Group Cochairs Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Counselor and Trustee, CSIS Lieutenant General Brent Scowcroft (USAF, retired), Counselor and Trustee, CSIS; President, Scowcroft Group, Inc. Members Ambassador Morton Abramowitz, Senior Fellow, The Century Foundation Ambassador James H. Holmes, President and CEO, American-Turkish Council General James Jamerson (USAF, retired), Former Deputy Commander, U.S. European C o m m a n d The Honorable John E. McLaughlin, Senior Fellow, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University vi | turkey’s evolving dynamics acknowledgments CSIS president and CEO John Hamre has observed that Turkey is “the most undervalued ally.” This sobering assessment, and the recognition that a cooperative relationship between Turkey and the United States is instrumental to optimal advancement of the strategic interests of both coun- tries, served as the inspiration for this initiative. During the past year, an interdisciplinary team of CSIS scholars has undertaken a systemic reevaluation of Turkey’s internal dynamics and relations with