Integrated Resource Plan and Tariff Study Submitted to: Ministry of Energy PPA Energy 1 Frederick Sanger Road Surrey Research Park Date: January 2015 Guildford, Surrey GU2 7YD, UK www.ppaenergy.co.uk Tel: +44 (0)1483 544944 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................ 10 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................................. 10 DEMAND FORECAST ......................................................................................................................................... 10 DEVELOPMENT OF NEW GENERATION .............................................................................................................. 15 TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................... 16 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 24 1.1 SCOPE OF WORK ..................................................................................................................................... 24 1.2 CONTRACT VARIATIONS ......................................................................................................................... 24 1.3 DELIVERABLES SUBMITTED .................................................................................................................... 25 2 PRESENT SITUATION ........................................................................................................................... 26 2.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 26 2.2 MACROECONOMY AND EBOLA VIRUS IMPACTS ....................................................................................... 26 2.3 SECTOR-WIDE ASPECTS ........................................................................................................................... 27 2.4 GENERATION ........................................................................................................................................... 33 2.5 TRANSMISSION ........................................................................................................................................ 35 2.6 DISTRIBUTION AND SUPPLY .................................................................................................................... 36 2.7 RURAL ELECTRIFICATION AND ACCESS ................................................................................................... 37 3 DEMAND FORECAST ............................................................................................................................ 38 3.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 38 3.2 BASE CASE TOTAL DEMAND ................................................................................................................... 39 3.3 HIGH CASE TOTAL DEMAND ................................................................................................................... 40 3.4 LOW CASE TOTAL DEMAND.................................................................................................................... 41 4 IMPROVING RURAL ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY ......................................................................... 44 4.1 OVERVIEW .............................................................................................................................................. 44 4.2 CURRENT STATUS OF SYSTEMS OUTSIDE FREETOWN ............................................................................. 45 4.3 RENEWABLE ENERGY AND DIESEL GENERATION .................................................................................... 45 4.4 BARRIERS TO RURAL ELECTRIFICATION ................................................................................................. 49 5 INDICATIVE GUIDELINES FOR THE EXPANSION OF TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS ........................................................................................................................ 55 6 CANDIDATE TECHNOLOGY FOR GENERATION DEVELOPMENT ......................................... 43 6.1 COAL FIRED THERMAL PLANTS [1] [2] ................................................................................................... 43 6.2 DIESEL PLANTS [3] [4] ............................................................................................................................ 45 6.3 GAS TURBINE BASED PLANTS [5] [6] [7] ................................................................................................ 46 6.4 HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS ....................................................................................................................... 47 6.5 SOLAR PLANTS [8] [9] [10] ..................................................................................................................... 48 7 PRELIMINARY SCREENING OF GENERATION OPTIONS.......................................................... 53 7.1 FUEL AVAILABILITY AND PRICING .......................................................................................................... 53 7.2 COSTS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION ..................................................................................................... 60 7.2.1 OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................................................................ 60 7.2.2 SCOPE ................................................................................................................................................. 60 7.2.3 METHODOLOGY.................................................................................................................................. 62 7.2.4 ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................................................................... 62 8 DERIVATION OF LEAST COST EXPANSION DEVELOPMENT .................................................. 72 8.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 72 Ministry of Energy 1 January 2015 20414. 8.2 GENERATION DISPATCHING SIMULATIONS ............................................................................................. 73 8.3 REVIEW OF SHORT-TERM GENERATION OPTIONS ..................................................................................... 88 8.4 REVIEW OF MEDIUM-TERM GENERATION EXPANSION OPTIONS .............................................................. 102 9 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL IMPACT ................................................................................... 118 9.1 OBJECTIVES .......................................................................................................................................... 118 9.2 MODEL STRUCTURE .............................................................................................................................. 118 9.3 BUILDING COSTS ................................................................................................................................... 119 9.4 OPERATING COSTS ................................................................................................................................ 125 9.5 DISMANTLING COSTS ............................................................................................................................ 135 9.6 USING THE MODEL ................................................................................................................................ 135 10 IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMME AND OVERALL RECOMMENDATIONS ...................... 136 10.1 IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................................................................ 136 10.2 REHABILITATION OF THE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK IN FREETOWN .................................................... 136 10.3 INSTALLATION OF ADDITIONAL DIESEL GENERATION IN FREETOWN ................................................ 137 10.4 CONSTRUCTION OF NEW DOUBLE CIRCUIT 225KV TRANSMISSION LINE BETWEEN BUMBUNA AND FREETOWN ..................................................................................................................................................... 137 10.5 ESTABLISHMENT OF PLANNING UNIT WITHIN MOE .......................................................................... 138 10.6 HYDROLOGY IN SIERRA LEONE ........................................................................................................ 138 11 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................... 140 A APPENDIX A – DEMAND FORECAST .............................................................................................. 144 A.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 144 A.2 INSTALLED CAPACITY IN THE WESTERN AREA ................................................................................ 147 A.3 FREETOWN DEMAND FORECAST .....................................................................................................