Annual Security Assessment Report 2014 Annual Security Assessment Report 2014 Actions, Reactions and Transformations Change at the Changing Rate 2014 Revisited Compiled by The Conflict Monitoring Center is statistical division of Pak Institute for Conflict and Security Studies. It is member of Casualty Recorders Network (CRN) established by Oxford Research Group and signatory of International Charter for Casualty Recording. Research & Analysis by: Abdullah Khan, Gul Dad, Zahoor Elahi Assisted by: Ahsan Naveed, Reema Asim, Azmat Khan, Watan Yar Reviewed by: Akram Zaki, Former Secretary General Foreign Office, Chairman Advisory Board PICSS Lt. General (r). Asad Durrani, former DG ISI, member Advisory Board PICSS Brig. (r). Saad Muhammad, Member Advisory Board PICSS House No. 423-A, St# 01, F-11/1, Islamabad. Phone: 051-8443444 Fax: 051-8442444 Pak Institute for ConflictWebsites: and www.picss.netSecurity Studies/, www.cmcpk.net Conflict Monitoring Email: Centre [email protected] © All Rights [email protected] Reserved Annual Security Assessment Report 2014 Acknowledgement The credit for conducting research and preparing this Annual Security Assessment Report 2014 goes to tireless efforts of the entire Research and Publication team of Pak Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) including Mr. Abdullah Khan (Managing Director/ Security Analyst), Mr. Zahoor Elahi (Analyst), Ms. Reema Asim (PRO & Research Assistant) Mr Naveed Ahsan (Research Assistant), Ms. Zosheen Khan (Research Assistant), Ms. Sidra Khan (Research Assistant), Mr. Hashim Aziz (Graphic Designer), Ms. Ramsha Shaukat (Internee), Ms. Iqra Batool (Internee), Ms. Sidra Ijaz (Internee), Mr. Jannat Gul (Internee), and Mr. Mehtab Shah (Internee). Special thanks and acknowledgment to Mr. Akram Zaki (Chairman PICSS) and members of Advisory Board including Lt Gen (R) Asad Durrani, Brig. (R) Saad, and Brig. (R) Asif Alvi for their review of report and providing necessary guidance to PICSS research team. Gul Dad (Senior Analyst/ Director Research & HR) Pak Institute for Conflict and Security Studies/ Conflict Monitoring Centre © All Rights Reserved Annual Security Assessment Report 2014 Table of Contents 1 Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 1 2 Overall Security Situation in the Country ............................................................................................... 3 3 Significant Security/Political Developments .......................................................................................... 5 3.1 Government-TTP Peace Talks ........................................................................................................ 5 3.2 Defections in TTP .......................................................................................................................... 8 3.3 Emergence of ISIS ....................................................................................................................... 10 3.4 Announcement of Al-Qaeda in Sub Continent ............................................................................. 12 3.5 Military Operations in FATA ........................................................................................................ 12 4 Developments in relations with India and Afghanistan ........................................................................ 15 4.1 Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations: Despair and Hopes ................................................................... 15 4.2 Pakistan-India Relations and their impact on security situation .................................................. 16 5 Year 2015: Trends and Challenges ........................................................................................................ 18 6 Recommendations ................................................................................................................................. 22 Annexure-A: National Security Profile ................................................................................................. 26 Annexure-B: Provincial Security Profile ............................................................................................... 47 List of Tables Table 1: Overall violent incidents of the year 2014 ...................................................................................... 26 Table 2: provincial distribution of militant attacks in 2014 .......................................................................... 30 Table 3: Type of Attacks and their impact..................................................................................................... 31 Table 4: Geographical break up of Suicide Attacks in Pakistan (2014) ........................................................ 34 Table 5: Region/ Province wise break up of security forces actions (2014) ................................................. 41 Table 6: Monthly break up of militant activities in Balochistan ................................................................... 49 Table 7: Monthly break-up of militant activities in FATA ............................................................................ 51 Table 8: Monthly break up of militant activities in KP and their human impact .......................................... 57 Table 9: Monthly break up of security forces actions in KP ......................................................................... 58 Table 10: Monthly break up of security forces actions in Sindh ................................................................... 60 Table 11: Monthly break up of militant activities in Sindh and their human impact .................................... 62 Table 12: Monthly break up of security forces actions in Punjab ................................................................. 64 Table 13: Monthly break up of militant activities in Punjab and their human impact .................................. 65 Pak Institute for Conflict and Security Studies/ Conflict Monitoring Centre © All Rights Reserved Annual Security Assessment Report 2014 List of Figures Figure 1: Overall violent incidents and resultant deaths ............................................................................... 27 Figure 2: Yearly Comparison of Militant Attacks and resultant deaths ........................................................ 27 Figure 3: Monthly comparison of militant attacks in 2014 ........................................................................... 28 Figure 4: Attacks versus Death Comparison (2014) ..................................................................................... 29 Figure 5: Categories of deaths in Militant Activities .................................................................................... 29 Figure 6: Geographical distribution of Mas .................................................................................................. 30 Figure 7: Comparison of Suicide Attacks since 2011 ................................................................................... 32 Figure 8: Categories of those killed in Suicide Attacks (2014) .................................................................... 32 Figure 9: Categories of injuries inflicted from Suicide Attacks .................................................................... 33 Figure 10: Geographical spread of Suicide Attacks in Pakistan since 2002 (%) .......................................... 35 Figure 11: IED based Attacks – Yearly Comparison ..................................................................................... 36 Figure 12: Monthly Comparison of IED based Attacks (2014) .................................................................... 37 Figure 13: Physical assault by the militants – monthly comparison (2014) ................................................. 38 Figure 14: Physical assault by the militants – Yearly comparison ................................................................ 38 Figure 15: Target Killing – Yearly Comparison ............................................................................................ 39 Figure 16: Target killing – Monthly Comparison (2014) .............................................................................. 39 Figure 17: Security forces actions versus militants’ activities ...................................................................... 40 Figure 18: Deaths resulting from SFAs and MAs ......................................................................................... 41 Figure 19: Impact of Operation Zarb-e-Azb on Militancy ............................................................................ 43 Figure 20: BDS Successful bids in 2014 ...................................................................................................... 46 Figure 21: Monthly Comparison of Militant Activities in Balochistan and their impact .............................. 49 Figure 22: Monthly Comparison of Militant Activities in FATA and their impact ....................................... 51 Figure 23: Monthly comparison of security forces actions in FATA ............................................................ 52 Figure 24: Monthly break of Security forces actions in FATA ..................................................................... 52 Figure 25: Monthly Comparison of militant activities in KP ....................................................................... 55 Figure 26: Category of Death comparison in KP .........................................................................................