GUERRILLA WARFARE IN NAMIBIA AND ASSOCIATED IMPLICATIONS FOR EXTERNAL MILITARY INVOLVEMENT Michael Shannon McCraty if, CA I^^^H NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS GUERRILLA WARFARE IN NAMIBIA AND /iSSOCIATED IMPLICATIONS FOR EXTERNAL MILITARY INVOLVEMENT by Michael Shannon Mc C rary March 1979 Thesis Advisor: 3arry M. Schutz Approved for public release; distribution unlimited T188645 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (Whan Data Entarad) READ INSTRUCTIONS REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE BEFORE COMPLETING FORK 1. REPORT NUUlt* 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO. I. RECIPIENT' J CAT AI.OG MuMREA 4. TITLE tand Subtltla) 5- type of report ttmoo covered Guerrilla Warfare in Namibia and Master's Thesis; Associated Implications for External March, 1979 Military Involvement S. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT xuMICK 7. AUTHORfa; • . CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMSCAVa Michael Shannon McCrary t. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME ANO ADDRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROj£C~ ASK AREA a WORK UNIT NUMBERS Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California 939^0 It. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME ANO AOORESS 12. REPORT DATE Naval Postgraduate School March 1979 Monterey, California 939^0 I). NUMBER OF PAGES 14. MONITORING AGENCY NAME a ADDRESS/!/ dlllarant from Controlling Otll ea) IS. SECURITY CLASS. Co/ rftla ra>orr; Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California 939^0 ISa. DECLASSIFICATION/ DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE 16. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (ol thla Kapert) Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (ol tha amatrmet antarad In Black 20, II dlllarant tram Raport) IS. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES It. KEY WORDS (Continua on raaaraa aida II naeaaaarr and Idantlty by block numaar t 20. ABSTRACT (Continua on ravaraa aida It naeaaaarr and Idantltr ay block numaar) There have been few unclassified attempts within the United States, if any, to document the guerrilla war in Namibia in its totality. This work presents a summary and analysis of that struggle through December, 1978, focusing on all aspects of the military and civil insurgency/counter- insurgency situations. Additionally, Namibia's history, its EDITION OP < NOV «S IS OBSOLETE DO ,:°r7, 1473 (Page S/N 0102-014- 6601 1) SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF TNlS PAOB (Whan Data Eniarad) (continuation of abstract) present social, economic, and political conditions, and the militant attitudes of the various actors involved are ex- amined from the standpoint of tendencies and factors which could stimulate violent conflict in the future. Salient aspects of these discussions are integrated to form several plausible political-military scenarios which include po- tentials for near and long term violence and for the involvement of external actors in that violence. Namibia and the conflict surrounding its pending in- dependence play a primary role in the current and future stability of southern Africa. This research is an attempt to provide policy makers with additional perspective in regard to the pursuit of that stability. DD Form 1473 1 , Jan 73 , S/N 0102-014-6601 iicu««tv claudication o' t*u **aer»*— Dm immm4 i Approved for public release; distribution unlimited Guerrilla Warfare in Namibia and Associated Implications for External Military Involvement by Michael Shannon McCrary Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1967 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 1979 DUDLEY KNOX LIBPARV NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY. CA 93<<40 ABSTRACT There have been few unclassified attempts within the United States, if any, to document the guerrilla war in Namibia in its totality. This work presents a summary and analysis of that struggle through December, 1978, focusing on all aspects of the military and civil insurgency/counter- insurgency situations. Additionally, Namibia's history, its present social, economic, and political conditions, and the militant attitudes of the various actors involved are ex- amined from the standpoint of tendencies and factors which could stimulate violent conflict in the future. Salient aspects of these discussions are integrated to form several plausible political-military scenarios which include po- tentials for near and long term violence and for the involvement of external actors in that violence. Namibia and the conflict surrounding its pending independence play a primary role in the current and future stability of southern Africa. This research is an attempt to provide policy makers with additional perspective in regard to the pursuit of that stability. k • TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 14 A. SITUATION Ik B. PURPOSE 16 C. HYPOTHESES 16 D. OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY 17 E. TERMINOLOGY IS F. SOURCES 19 II. THE PEOPLE AND HISTORY OF NAMIBIA 21 A. PURPOSE AND SCOPE 21 B. THE PEOPLE OF NAMIBIA 22 1. Ovambo 27 2. Damara 28 3. Herero 2S k. Kavango 29 5. Nama 30 6. Coloured 30 7. East Caprivians 30 8. Bushmen 31 9. Rehoboth Basters 31 10. Kaokolanders 11. Tswana 12. Whites 3^ 13. General C. THE HISTORY OF NAMIBIA 1. The Africans 5 2. The Germans 39 3. South Africa's Mandate ^ k. The United Nations, South Africa and the Namibians 53 5- A Brief Bottom Line 65 III. THE WAR 67 A. PURPOSE AND SCOPE 67 B. THEORY 69 1. The Insurgent 2. The Counterinsurgent C. THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT 76 1. The Boundaries 76 2. Terrain 78 3. Precipitation 4-. Population Distribution 80 5. Lines of Communication 82 6. Military Considerations D. THE COURSE OF THE WAR 5o 1. The Early Years 2. 1975 90 3. January - June, 1976 k. July - December, 1976 96 5. January - June, 1977 6. July - December, 1977 99 7. January - June, 1978 101 8. July - December, 1973 102 . E. THE OPPOSING FORCE LEVELS 111 1. The Insurgents 111 2. The Counterinsurgents 117 F. EXTERNAL MILITARY PARTICIPATION 129 1. Military Support for the Counterinsurgents-- 130 2. Military Support for the Insurgents 132 a. Angola 132 b. Cuba 134 c. Soviet Union 135 d. East Germany 136 e. Zambia 137 f Summary 138 G. COUNTERINSURGENCY AND THE LEGAL SYSTEM 139 H. THE PURSUIT OF POPULAR SUPPORT 1-9 1. Legal Reforms 150 2. Civic Actions 15^ 3. Propaganda 15^ I. THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE STRUGGLE 159 1. Objective Accomplishment 159 2. Operational Constraints lol 3. Normal Modus Operandi b. Intelligence 1 - 5 5. Quality of the Combatants -- 6. Popular Attitudes 17 1" V. INTERNAL FACTORS A. PURPOSE AND SCOPE 17 1" B. THE POLITICAL CONTENDERS 1. The South West Africa People's Organization-- 176 2. The Namibian National Front ] 3. The Democratic Turnhalle Alliance 1 4-. The Action Front for Retention of Turnhalle Principles 193 5. Summary 19^ C. WHITE ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS 195 1. The Afrikaners 195 2. The Germans 198 3. The English-Speaking 199 ^. Collective Attitudes 200 D. ETHNIC DIVERSITY AND PRIMORDIAL CONFLICT 202 1. The History of Ethnic Conflict 203 2. The South African Administration and Ethnic Attitudes 20^ 3. Primordialism within the Nationalist Movement b. Ethnicity in General 2C E. EDUCATIONAL DEFICIENCIES 1. The Dilemma 210 2. The Consequences F. ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS 1. The Current Economy 2. Areas of Endeavor 3. South African Linkages k. Foreign Participation 5. The Africans 6. The Prospects a G. WALVIS BAY 225 V. MILITANT MOTIVATIONS 230 A. SOUTH AFRICA 230 B. SWAPO 2^0 C. THE UNITED NATIONS 2^1 D. THE SOVIET UNION, CUBA, AND EAST GERMANY — 242 E. ZAMBIA 244 F. ANGOLA 2^5 G. THE WESTERN NATIONS 2^7 VI. SCENARIOS OF VIOLENCE 2^8 A. SCENARIO 1 2^3 B. SCENARIO 2 250 C. SCENARIO 3 250 D. SCENARIO k 252 E. SCENARIO 5 252 F. SCENARIO 6 253 G. SCENARIO 7 259 H. CONCLUSIONS 260 BIBLIOGRAPHY 262 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 268 LIST OF TABLES I. Population Groups in Namibia II. Namibia Labor Force 219 10 LIST OF MAPS 1. Namibia - Population in 1900 before extensive White settlement 2. Namibia - Population distribution up to 1966 3. Namibia - Redistribution proposed under Odendaal Plan 4. Northern Namibia - Border Operational Area 5. Ovamboland - Ovamboland population distribution 81 6. Namibia - Primary surface lines of communication 7. Walvis Bay 11 . AC KN OWLED GEMEN TS It has been a long and exhausting process. It would' ve been much harder without the help of several people however. Professor John Marcum of the University of California at Santa Cruz, Professor Chris Leu of the California State University at Northridge, and Tony Wilkinson, noted authority on southern Africa military affairs-, all expressed interest and provided encouragement during the early phases of the pro ject I would like to express my appreciation to Henry Miller of the U.S. Mission to the U.N. for his assistance in arrang- ing several interviews and for providing insight on the workings of the U.N. Mary Ann Cook of the U.S. State Department and Peggy Greenwood and Debbie Ardan of the Defense Intelligence Agency provided assistance in the procurement of numerous documents. Professors Jiri Valenta and Russ Stolfi of the Naval Postgraduate School rendered stimulating perspectives in the classroom and in private discussions. As the second reader, Professor Ralph Magnus made valuable comments on the final drafts As my thesis advisor, Professor Barry Schutz provided guidance in the selection and approach to the topic and helped me acquire a basic foundation in African studies. He gave freely of his time and advice, and his encouragement and assistance greatly facilitated completion. Thank ycu. 12 As always, my wife was understanding and patient. Her support and considerable assistance in preparing the draft copies made this truly a joint effort. I would also like to acknowledge the cooperation of my young son. No longer will I have to close the door in his face with the words, "Sorry, Daddy has to study". 13 I. INTRODUCTION A. SITUATION Namibia (referred to as South West Africa in all references predating June, 1968 and still so by South Africa and the territory's government) is now scheduled to receive full independence in October 1979 after almost a hundred years of foreign colonization/administration.