SCARBOROUGH RAPID TRANSIT BENEFITS CASE January 2009 Scarborough RT Benefits Case Final Report 28th January 2009 Prepared for: Prepared by: Metrolinx Steer Davies Gleave 20 Bay Street, Suite 901 1000 - 355 Burrard Street Toronto ON M5J 2N8 Vancouver, BC V6C 2G8 In Association with: Economic Development Research Group Metropolitan Knowledge International 2 SRT Benefits Case CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................. 1 PART A PROJECT RATIONALE ........................................................................... 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of Report ........................................................................................................................................ 1 Report Structure........................................................................................................................................... 1 Project Rationale............................................................................................................................................ 2 Context and Need ........................................................................................................................................ 2 Project Objectives ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Project Overview............................................................................................................................................ 4 Replacement and Upgrade ......................................................................................................................... 4 Extension ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 PART B OPTIONS................................................................................................ 6 Project Options ............................................................................................................................................... 6 Base Case....................................................................................................................................................... 6 Option 1 – Upgrade and Extend SRT to Malvern...................................................................................... 7 Option 2 – Extend SRT and Connect with Sheppard East LRT............................................................... 9 Option 3 – Segregated LRT Kennedy Station to Malvern Town Centre.............................................. 10 Option 4 – Segregated LRT Kennedy Station to McCowan, At-Grade LRT to Malvern Town Centre ...................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Summary of Options................................................................................................................................... 14 PART C ASSESSMENT ....................................................................................... 15 Evaluation Framework................................................................................................................................. 15 Transportation User Benefits..................................................................................................................... 16 Travel Time Benefits ................................................................................................................................. 16 Automobile Operating Cost Savings ........................................................................................................ 17 Safety Benefits ........................................................................................................................................... 17 Other Qualitative Transportation User Benefits................................................................................... 17 Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 18 1 SRT Benefits Case Financial Account ......................................................................................................................................... 19 Capital and Operating Costs..................................................................................................................... 19 Ridership and Revenues ............................................................................................................................ 21 Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 22 Comparing Benefits and Costs ................................................................................................................... 23 Environmental Impacts................................................................................................................................24 Greenhouse Gas Emissions........................................................................................................................ 24 Other Environmental Issues...................................................................................................................... 25 Economic Impacts ......................................................................................................................................... 26 Temporary Economic Impacts Generated by Construction................................................................. 26 Long-term Economic Impacts................................................................................................................... 27 Land Value Changes................................................................................................................................... 27 Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 31 Social Community Impacts.......................................................................................................................... 32 Land Use Changes....................................................................................................................................... 32 Health........................................................................................................................................................... 32 Accessibility ................................................................................................................................................ 33 Visual Impacts............................................................................................................................................. 33 Noise Impacts.............................................................................................................................................. 33 Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 35 Sensitivity Analysis....................................................................................................................................... 36 Summary Results........................................................................................................................................... 37 FIGURES Figure 1 SRT Upgrade and Extension to Malvern Town Centre 8 Figure 2 SRT Extension to Connect to SHeppard East LRT 9 Figure 3 Replace SRT with LRT Technology and Extend to Malvern Town Centre 11 Figure 4 Modified Option 3 with Partially Exclusive LRT to Malvern Town Centre 12 2 SRT Benefits Case TABLES Table 1 General Characteristics of SRT Options 14 Table 2 Incremental Transportation User Benefits (NPV) 18 Table 3 Capital and Operating Costs 20 Table 4 Incremental Capital and Operating Costs (NPV) 20 Table 5 Incremental Annual Ridership (New Riders) 21 Table 6 Incremental Costs and Revenues (NPV) 22 Table 7 Comparison Benefits and Costs (NPV) 23 Table 8 Reduction In CO2 Emissions 24 Table 9 Employment And Income Impacts During Construction 26 Table 10 Long-Term Employment and income Impacts 27 Table 11 Transit Influence on Property Values 28 Table 12 Potential Property value Uplift by Option 30 Table 13 Summary of Broader Economic Impacts 31 Table 14 Incremental Social Community Impacts 35 Table 15 Sensitivity Analysis 36 Table 16 MAE Summary 38 APPENDICES INPUT VARIABLES AND ASSUMPTIONS LAND VALUE ANALYSIS 3 SRT Benefits Case Executive Summary In 2006 the Province of Ontario created the Greater Toronto Transportation Authority, renamed to Metrolinx in December 2007. The primary responsibility of the new organisation is to provide leadership in the planning, financing and development of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area’s (GTHA) multi-modal transportation network and to conform to the objectives and vision set out in the Places to Grow Act, 2005. Part of Metrolinx’ mandate and one of its first deliverables is the development of the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), a 25-year plan that presents the road map for the implementation of the Province’s MoveOntario