Food and Agriculture Organization Topic A: Climate Change and Agriculture MUNUC 31 Update Paper Case Study: Climate Change’s Effect on Honduras’s Agrarian Society The challenge in understanding climate change has expanded from simply analyzing its biological aspects to now gauging the socio-economic impacts of climate vulnerability in developing countries, and the way it alters the political landscape of agricultural societies. According to a report by Phys, Honduras currently falls within the top 3 in countries that are most affected by rising 1 temperatures, followed only by Haiti and Myanmar. Agricultural production, especially coffee and bananas, currently makes up close to 15% of Honduras’s gross domestic product (GDP). Along with that, nearly 25% of all citizens either work directly in agriculture or in a related field, such as packaging, inspecting, or landscaping. As a result, Honduras’s food production and economic well-being often fluctuates based on weather events, like droughts or hurricanes. Hurricane Mitch, which ripped through Central America in ‘98, caused cash crop exports to drop by 10%, and the President of Honduras estimated that the harm done to the 2 fields likely set the country back over 50 years. Climate change, however, isn’t a one-time event. It’s 1 "Honduras, Myanmar, Haiti Top Risk List, Says Climate Group," Phys.org - News and Articles on Science and ​ Technology, https://phys.org/news/2015-12-honduras-myanmar-haiti-climate-group.html. 2 "Honduras," The Heritage Foundation, https://www.heritage.org/index/country/honduras. ​ a force that has been worsening as the years go by and has been creating exponential amounts of economic and social challenges in Honduras. The effects of climate change have been slow and devastating, causing an innumerable amount of problems that farmers in Honduras are struggling to adapt to. Since 2008, Honduras has been hit with waves of droughts and floods. Honduran farmers say that these extreme weather events are harmful for their crop output, as their plants need consistent temperatures and rain to thrive. An increase in temperature has also created the perfect breeding ground for species of fungi. In 2013, the rust fugus “la roya” wiped out 40% of all coffee crops, even leading the government to 3 declare a national emergency. Local decline in production is forcing rural farmers to travel farther ​ and farther during picking season, and export numbers have been consistently declining. In retaliation to the South American Caravan that is moving towards the southern border of the United States, President Trump is in the process of eliminating all economic assistance to various Central American countries, including Honduras. The proposed cut to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) would cut off over $58 million of economic 4 support that largely takes the form of subsidies for poorer export-driven farmers. Honduras’s government is lost for ways to combat the rising temperatures and litany of problems, mostly because they do not have the resources themselves to deal with the effects of global warming. Climate models predict that, “Honduras’s temperatures will continue to rise, water will become 3 Karyn Miller-Medzon, "Struggling Honduran Farmers Cope With Climate Challenges," WBUR, June 20, 2017, ​ https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2017/06/20/honduras-farmers-climate-challenges. 4 IANS, "Trump Vows to End All Aid to Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador," Business Standard, December 28, 2018, ​ https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/trump-vows-to-end-all-aid-to-guatemala-honduras-el-salva dor-118122900016_1.html. 5 scarcer in certain regions and weather patterns will become even more unpredictable.” One thing is for certain: something has to be done to combat the issues that are affecting not only Honduras, but a whole host of agrarian-based countries. 5 Stephanie Leutert, "How Climate Change Is Affecting Rural Honduras and Pushing People North," The Washington ​ Post, November 6, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/11/06/how-climate-change-is-affecting-rural-h onduras-and-pushing-people-north/?fbclid=IwAR366F5mjugl9UrxDxgdGwMrDK2pWRdEawyvbcX8X5sDd9AK4wuyc oSsTRI&noredirect=on&utm_term=.e5212b9aaa55. Bibliography "Honduras, Myanmar, Haiti Top Risk List, Says Climate Group." Phys.org - News and Articles on Science and Technology. https://phys.org/news/2015-12-honduras-myanmar-haiti-climate-group.html. ​ "Honduras." The Heritage Foundation. https://www.heritage.org/index/country/honduras. ​ ​ IANS. "Trump Vows to End All Aid to Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador." Business Standard. December 28, 2018. https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/trump-vows-to-end-all-aid-to-guatemala-ho nduras-el-salvador-118122900016_1.html. Leutert, Stephanie. "How Climate Change Is Affecting Rural Honduras and Pushing People North." The Washington Post. November 6, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/11/06/how-climate-change-is- affecting-rural-honduras-and-pushing-people-north/?fbclid=IwAR366F5mjugl9UrxDxgdGwMrDK 2pWRdEawyvbcX8X5sDd9AK4wuycoSsTRI&noredirect=on&utm_term=.e5212b9aaa55. Miller-Medzon, Karyn. "Struggling Honduran Farmers Cope With Climate Challenges." WBUR. June 20, 2017. https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2017/06/20/honduras-farmers-climate-challenges. ​ ​ Food and Agriculture Organization Topic A: Climate Change and Agriculture MUNUC 31 Update Paper Capturing Methane Emissions from Manure It is a well-known fact that ruminant animals produce methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more 6 7 potent than carbon dioxide (CO2), as a byproduct of their digestive process. Though the methane ​ ​ gas exhaled by the ruminant animals cannot be captured, that produced by the manure of the 8 livestock can. The public sector is well-aware of methane’s effect on climate change and has developed strategies to encourage its capture and utilization. The United States government, for example, published the “Biogas Opportunities Roadmap” in 2014 to promote the adoption of 9 biogas capture systems, developing financial incentives and the domestic market for biogas. Recently, however, private sector companies have also initiated efforts to harness the methane gas generated on animal farms to combat climate change. Smithfield Foods and utility company Dominion Energy have agreed to cooperate, and each has invested $125 million over the period of ten years to install methane gas capture systems in hog lagoons in North Carolina, Virginia, and Utah, feeding potentially 85,000 metric tons of captured and purified methane gas annually into the 6 M. Premalatha, Tasneem Abbasi, S.M. Tauseef, and S.A. Abbasi, "Methane Capture from Livestock Manure." Journal of Environmental ​ Management 117 (January 12, 2012): 187. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.12.022. ​ 7 Steven Mufson, "Companies Launch Plan to Capture Methane from Hog Manure Lagoons." The Washington Post. November 27, 2018. Accessed December 29, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/11/27/companies-launch-plan-capture-methane-hog-manure-lagoons /?utm_term=.7c9e820dfc63. 8 M. Premalatha, Tasneem Abbasi, S.M. Tauseef, and S.A. Abbasi, "Methane Capture,” 187. 9 Sandra Vijn, "The Biogas Solution: Turning Manure into Profit." WWF. July 31, 2014. Accessed December 29, 2018. https://www.worldwildlife.org/blogs/sustainability-works/posts/the-biogas-solution-turning-manure-into-profit#. 10 pipelines of Dominion to potentially heat homes. This cooperation is one of the latest efforts of such kinds in North Carolina, where Duplin County alone hosts more than 500 feeding operations 11 and Smithfield owns roughly 2.3 million hogs. Previously, Duke Energy, Duke University, and Google have also jointly invested in the area in 2011 to capture methane produced by the hog farm 12 near Yadkinville. Such efforts are not limited to the United States, however, as dairy farms in China also began to install methane capture systems to generate electricity. Huishan Dairy near Shenyang, China has installed gas-powered generators that would use methane captured from the manure of 60,000 cows, 13 generating enough electricity to power roughly 3500 American-households. Sufficiently explaining 14 the upfront cost, the large scale of the program also makes it more appealing and economical. The difficulties of such projects are apparent. The large upfront-cost, together with the long approval process and the competitive nature of the energy sector, have posed significant barriers for 15 especially small farms to install methane capture systems. There are only 236 systems of such type 16 installed in U.S. farms by 2014, whereas the potential market is estimated to be over 2,600 farms. It must be noted that primitive systems directly using the captured gas for cooking or lighting on small 17 farms have been widely deployed. However, systems generating electricity and heating homes are recently developed, and are still a difficult and relatively expensive method to utilize the captured 10 Steven Mufson, "Companies Launch Plan to Capture Methane.” 11 Joel K. Bourne, "Harnessing the Power of Poo: Pig Waste Becomes Electricity." National Geographic. July 13, 2016. Accessed December 29, 2018. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/people-and-culture/food/the-plate/2016/07/pig-waste-energy-north-carolina/. 12 Ibid. 13 Kevin Bullis, "Chinese Project Puts Cow Dung to Work." MIT Technology Review. October 22, 2012. Accessed December 29, 2018. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/421771/chinese-project-puts-cow-dung-to-work/.