THE GEOPOLITICS OF SUPPORT FOR TURKEY’S EU ACCESSION: A VIEW FROM LITHUANIA The Geopolitics of Support for Turkey’s EU Accession: A View from Lithuania AZUOLAS BAGDONAS* ABSTRACT o join the European Union (EU), Why does Lithuania support Turkey in time needs to over- Turkey’s accession to the European Tcome two obstacles. First, it Union? The article analyzes some PGGFUVQEQPVKPWGHWNſNNKPIVJGTGSWKTG- of the key domestic factors and the OGPVUQHVJG%QRGPJCIGPETKVGTKCKG strategic thinking behind Lithuania’a continuous support. Domestically, the formal political, institutional, and the political culture of the foreign economic conditions for membership. policy elite and the permissiveness 9JKNG UWUVCKPKPI VJG EQOOKVOGPV VQ of public opinion allow treating OGGV VJGUG TGSWKTGOGPVU OC[ DG EJCN- Turkey’s accession as a foreign NGPIKPI VJG UGEQPF QDUVCENG Ō QDVCKP- policy issue, subject to cost-bene!t KPIVJGCITGGOGPVQHCNNCPFGCEJQHVJG calculations. Short-term calculations OGODGTUVCVGUVQ6WTMG[ŏUCEEGUUKQPŌ involve mutually advantageous deals between Turkey and Lithuania. may prove to be even harder to over- Long-term assessments focus on come. In the calculations of the political how Turkey’s membership would elites of certain European countries, a a"ect global, regional, and intra- number of perceived obstacles to Tur- European dynamics of power MG[ŏU CEEGUUKQP UGGO VQ QWVYGKIJ VJG relations. The article suggests that, in QDXKQWU DGPGſVU QH 6WTMG[ŏU OGODGT- the context of lasting foreign policy objectives and concerns, Turkey is ship. There are worries about the po- attractive to Lithuania primarily due NKVKECNCPFGEQPQOKEKORCEVQHCEEGRVKPI to its geopolitical roles: its traditional UWEJCNCTIGEQWPVT[CUYGNNCUEQPEGTPU transatlantic alignment, its function TGICTFKPIEJCPIGUKPVJGHQTOCNCPFKP- as a transit hub for energy supplies HQTOCN FGEKUKQP OCMKPI RTQEGFWTGU KP to Europe, and its potential to the EU. become a great power, engaging in regional competition with Russia. * International Relations Department, Fatih Univer- sity, aDCIFQPCU"HCVKJGFWVT Insight Turkey Vol. 14 / No. 3 / 2012 pp. 177-192 SUMMER 2012 177 AZUOLAS BAGDONAS Scholars and, especially, the media tend to focus on the position of key EU UVCVGUUWEJCU)GTOCP[CPF(TCPEGCPFPQVYKVJQWVCIQQFTGCUQPŌVJGKTUVCPEG is likely to be of critical importance to the success of Turkey’s membership bid. However, the views of smaller Lithuania’s interest in having states, which numerically constitute Turkey in the EU stems from the majority in the EU, should not the country’s commitment to DGCNVQIGVJGTKIPQTGFHQTUGXGTCNTGC- UQPU(KTUVQHCNNKPECUGQHGPNCTIG- Atlanticism, as well as from the ment, each EU member state has a perceived potential bene!ts UKPINGXQVGTGICTFNGUUQHVJGUK\GQH in terms of reducing Russia’s their population and economy. Sec- in#uence in the EU ond, Turkey’s ability to convert its CRRGCNKPVQUVTCVGIKENGXGTCIGKPVJG CEEGUUKQPPGIQVKCVKQPUCNUQFGRGPFUQPVJGHQTOCVKQPQHCUVTQPIEQCNKVKQPKPUKFG the EU in favor of its membership.1 Since in the absence of such a coalition, 6WTMG[JCUNGUUEJCPEGVQUWEEGUUHWNN[WUGKVUIGQUVTCVGIKENQECVKQPCUCDCTICKP- KPIEJKRQTVQGPICIGKPGHHGEVKXGTJGVQTKECNCEVKQPUVJGRQUKVKQPQHUOCNNEQWP- tries becomes more important in the accession process.2 +PVJKUEQPVGZV.KVJWCPKCŏUEQPVKPWQWUCPFWPYCXGTKPIUWRRQTVHQT6WTMG[ŏU '7OGODGTUJKRRTQXKFGUCPKPVGTGUVKPIECUGVJCVIKXGUCRGTURGEVKXGQPUQOGQH VJGHCEVQTUCVRNC[KPVJGOQUVEQPUGSWGPVKCNKPUVCPEGQH'7GPNCTIGOGPV6JKU CTVKENGCPCN[UGUVJGDCEMITQWPFQHVJKUUWRRQTVUWIIGUVKPIVJCVVJGOCKPFGVGT- minants of Lithuanian-Turkish relations are conditioned by circumstances that JCXGNGUUVQFQYKVJVJG'WTQRGCPKPVGITCVKQPVJCPYKVJVJG'7ŏUGZVGTPCNTGNC- VKQPU.KVJWCPKCŏUKPVGTGUVKPJCXKPI6WTMG[KPVJG'7UVGOUHTQOVJGEQWPVT[ŏU EQOOKVOGPVVQ#VNCPVKEKUOCUYGNNCUHTQOVJGRGTEGKXGFRQVGPVKCNDGPGſVUKP VGTOUQHTGFWEKPI4WUUKCŏUKPƀWGPEGKPVJG'7+PUWRRQTVQHVJKUCTIWOGPVVJG ſTUVRCTVYKNNFKUEWUUVJGHCEVQTUVJCVEQODKPGVQOCMG6WTMG[ŏUCEEGUUKQPCPKU- UWGQHHQTGKIPRQNKE[TGNCVKXGN[KUQNCVGFHTQOUYKPIUKPFQOGUVKERWDNKEQRKPKQP and internal political competition. The second part will explain the dominant HQTGKIP RQNKE[ EQPEGTPU QH .KVJWCPKC HQTOKPI VJG DCEMITQWPF YKVJKP YJKEJ this particular issue is viewed. Finally, the third part will provide an analysis of UQOGQHVJGMG[GNGOGPVUQHUVTCVGIKEVJKPMKPIDGJKPF.KVJWCPKCŏUUWRRQTVHQT Turkey’s accession. Support for Turkey – not an Issue of Domestic Politics 5KPEGLQKPKPIVJG'7KP.KVJWCPKCJCUEQPUKUVGPVN[UWRRQTVGF6WTMG[ŏU '7DKF1HſEKCNUVCVGOGPVU VQVJCVRWTRQUGJCXGDGGPOCFGD[XCTKQWUJKIJ NGXGNUVCVGQHſEKCNUFWTKPIGCEJQHOQTGVJCPVGPDKNCVGTCNOGGVKPIUVJCVVQQM 178 INSIGHT TURKEY THE GEOPOLITICS OF SUPPORT FOR TURKEY’S EU ACCESSION: A VIEW FROM LITHUANIA RNCEGUKPEG6JGQHſEKCNRQUKVKQPCFQRVGFD[VJG/KPKUVT[QH(QTGKIP#H- HCKTUCPFTGKVGTCVGFD[FKHHGTGPVOKPKUVGTUQHHQTGKIPCHHCKTUFKRNQOCVUCUYGNN as chairmen of the parliament and presidents, is that Turkey is entitled to full OGODGTUJKRUQNQPICUKVOGGVUVJG%QRGPJCIGPETKVGTKC1PUGXGTCNQEECUKQPU various ministers went beyond the passive rhetoric to actively promote Turkey’s KPENWUKQP(QTGZCORNGKP,CPWCT[OKPKUVGTQHHQTGKIPCHHCKTU##\WDCNKU EQCWVJQTGFCPQRGPNGVVGTGORJCUK\KPI6WTMG[ŏUőXKVCNUVTCVGIKECPFGEQPQOKE importance,” followed by another EQCWVJQTGFNGVVGTKP,WPGECNN- Thus, while recent opinion polls KPIHQTCőPGYKORWNUGŒKPVJGCEEGU- placed Lithuania in the minority sion process.3 The position maintained by the of only !ve EU member states HQTGKIPRQNKE[GUVCDNKUJOGPVFQGUPQV where the public supported JCXG WPCODKIWQWU FQOGUVKE RWDNKE Turkey’s membership UWRRQTV CPF RWDNKE QRKPKQP TGICTF- KPI6WTMG[ŏU'7OGODGTUJKRKUJKIJN[RQNCTK\GF'WTQDCTQOGVGTUWTXG[UKP- dicate that, as in most other new EU member states, the public in Lithuania JCUDGGPEQPUKFGTCDN[OQTGGPVJWUKCUVKECDQWVHWTVJGTGPNCTIGOGPVQHVJG'7 than the public in the EU-15 countries. %QPUGSWGPVN[ UWRRQTV HQT6WTMG[ŏU OGODGTUJKRJCUCNUQDGGPIGPGTCNN[JKIJGTVJCPVJG'7CXGTCIGHQTGZCORNG KP6WTMG[ŏUOGODGTUJKRYCUUWRRQTVGFD[RGTEGPVCPFQRRQUGFD[ RGTEGPVKPVJG'7YJKNGVJGTGURGEVKXGRGTEGPVCIGUYGTGRGTEGPVCPF RGTEGPVKP.KVJWCPKCKP6WTMG[ŏUOGODGTUJKRYCUUWRRQTVGFD[RGT- EGPVCPFQRRQUGFD[RGTEGPVKPVJG'7YJGTGCUKP.KVJWCPKCRGTEGPV YGTGKPHCXQTCPFRGTEGPVYGTGPQVKPHCXQTQH6WTMG[DGEQOKPIRCTVQHVJG EU.5 *QYGXGT VJG RWDNKE YCU OQTG UWRRQTVKXG QH GPNCTIGOGPV VQ EQWPVTKGU QVJGTVJCP6WTMG[HQTGZCORNGKPRGTEGPVYGTGHQTVJGKPENWUKQPQH 5YKV\GTNCPFCPFRGTEGPVHQT7MTCKPGPGKVJGTQHYJKEJYGTGGXGPRQVGPVKCN ECPFKFCVGEQWPVTKGUYJKNGRGTEGPVUWRRQTVGF%TQCVKCŏU'7OGODGTUJKR#N- VJQWIJ6WTMG[KUQPGQHVJGMG[JQNKFC[FGUVKPCVKQPUHQT.KVJWCPKCPUVJGRWDNKE QRKPKQPFGRGPFUNCTIGN[QPKPHQTOCVKQPQDVCKPGFKPFKTGEVN[VJTQWIJOGFKCEJCP- PGNUYJKEJIKXGPVJGTGOQVGPGUUQH6WTMG[QHVGPVGPFVQHQEWUQPGZVTCQTFK- PCT[CPFPGICVKXGGXGPVU GCTVJSWCMGUVGTTQTKUVCVVCEMURQNKVKECNUECPFCNUGVE 6JWUYJKNGTGEGPVQRKPKQPRQNNURNCEGF.KVJWCPKCKPVJGOKPQTKV[QHQPN[ſXG EU member states where the public supported Turkey’s membership, opinions TGICTFKPI6WTMG[ŏUECPFKFCE[YGTGIGPGTCNN[OQTGTGUGTXGFCPFOQTGGSWCNN[ split than the views towards the potential membership of other countries. 6JG'WTQRGCPKPVGITCVKQPJCUDGGPCPFVQCNCTIGGZVGPVTGOCKPUCRTQLGEV driven by political elites. Decisions on whether to allow particular candidate member states to join the EU have rarely been validated by national parliaments SUMMER 2012 179 AZUOLAS BAGDONAS or referendums./QTGQXGTUKPEGOCUUQRKPKQPKUIGPGTCNN[UJCRGFD[GZRQUWTG VQGNKVGFKUEQWTUGRQNKVKECNGNKVGUTGVCKPVJGCDKNKV[VQRTQFWEGUWHſEKGPVNGXGNU QHRWDNKEUWRRQTVHQT'WTQRGCPGPNCTIGOGPV7+PQVJGTYQTFUVQICWIGVJGTGN- GXCPEGQHRWDNKEQRKPKQPCUCHCEVQTQH'WTQRGCPKPVGITCVKQPYGPGGFVQNQQMCV VJGDGJCXKQTQHRQNKVKECNGNKVGUŌYJ[VJG[EJQQUGVQJGGFQTKIPQTGVJGNCEMQH RWDNKEUWRRQTVHQTHWTVJGTGPNCTIGOGPVCUYGNNCUJQYVJG[HTCOGGPNCTIGOGPV VJGTGD[EWGKPICPFőEQPUVTWEVKPIŒRWDNKEQRKPKQP 1PGMG[CURGEVKPVJKUTGICTFKUVJGFGITGGQHGNKVGRQNCTK\CVKQPŌVJGOQTG FKXKFGFCTGVJGRQNKVKECNRCTVKGUQP'WTQRGCPKPVGITCVKQPVJGOQTGNKMGN[CTG they to nurture and make use of the divisions in public opinion. Furthermore, a recent study showed that a coun- Despite the fairly critical media try’s attitude towards Turkish acces- coverage, the EU’s enlargement sion depends critically on whether it to Turkey has never turned into UGGUKVCUCRTGFQOKPCPVN[SWGUVKQPQH HQTGKIPRQNKE[ GI2QNCPFCPFVJG a contentious issue of politics, 7- COCVVGTEQPEGTPKPIKPVGTPCN'7 either between di"erent RQNKVKEU GI(TCPEG QTCPKUUWGQH institutions or between national politics (as in Germany and di"erent parties Austria).9 If Turkey’s membership is UGGPCUCHQTGKIPRQNKE[KUUWGCPCN[- UGUQHVJGGEQPQOKECPFIGQRQNKVKECNEQUVUCPFDGPGſVUV[RKECNN[TGUWNVKPCHCKTN[ RQUKVKXGCUUGUUOGPV+HKVKUXKGYGFVJTQWIJVJGRTKUOQHKPVGTPCN'7RQNKVKEUVJG EQUVUKPVGTOUQHKVUKORCEVQPVJGQTICPK\CVKQPŏUKPVGTPCNKPUVKVWVKQPCNRQNKVK- ECNUQEKCNEWNVWTCNCPFGEQPQOKEUGVWROC[QWVYGKIJVJGDGPGſVURCTVKEWNCTN[ HQTNCTIGOGODGTUVCVGUUWEJCU(TCPEGCPF)GTOCP[(KPCNN[YJGP6WTMG[ŏU accession is seen as an issue of national politics, i.e., when its impact on the na- tional economies, societies and security becomes a matter of domestic debates, VJGCUUGUUOGPVIGPGTCNN[VGPFUVQDGPGICVKXG6JGUGVYQCURGEVUŌGNKVGRQNCTK\C- VKQPCPFVJGECVGIQTK\CVKQPQH6WTMG[ŏUCEEGUUKQPŌCTGKPVGTTGNCVGFDGECWUGKP EQPVTCUVVQFQOGUVKERQNKVKECNOCVVGTUHQTGKIPRQNKE[KUUWGUCTGQTFKPCTKN[NGUU NKMGN[VQCVVTCEVUKIPKſECPVRWDNKECVVGPVKQPCPFVJWUQHHGTHGYGTKPEGPVKXGUHQT GNKVGRQNCTK\CVKQP 5GXGTCNHCEVQTUECPGZRNCKPYJ[6WTMG[ŏU'7CEEGUUKQPKUIGPGTCNN[TGICTFGF CUCHQTGKIPRQNKE[KUUWGCPFKUTGNCVKXGN[UJKGNFGFHTQOFQOGUVKERQNKVKECNEQO- RGVKVKQPCPFUYKPIUKPRWDNKEQRKPKQPKP.KVJWCPKC(KTUVN[KPEQPVTCUVVQ)GTOC- P[(TCPEGQT#WUVTKC.KVJWCPKCFQGUPQVJQUVCUKIPKſECPV6WTMKUJEQOOWPKV[ CPFFQGUPQVJCXGOWEJGZRGTKGPEGYKVJKOOKITCVKQPKPIGPGTCN+OOKITCVKQP TGOCKPGFXGT[NQYGXGPFWTKPIVJGRGTKQFQHHCUVGEQPQOKEITQYVJKP