Impacts and control of coal-fired power station emissions in South Africa I Pretorius 25278215 Thesis submitted for the degree Philosophiae Doctor in Geography and Environmental Management Potchefstroom Campus of the North West University Promoter: Prof S J Piketh Co-promoter: Mr R P Burger November 2015 Dedication I dedicate this work to my parents, Willem and Christa Jansen van Rensburg. This is to thank you for always putting my education first. Without your love, patience and support I would not have been where I am today. You taught me by example to be curious about the world around me and to never stop learning. Abstract Contents Dedication ............................................................................................................................ 1 Abstract ................................................................................................................................ vi Preface................................................................................................................................. ix Glossary ............................................................................................................................. xiii List of tables ...................................................................................................................... xvii List of figures ...................................................................................................................... xix 1 Introduction and literature review ................................................................................. 1 1.1 The South African energy sector ........................................................................... 1 1.2 Drivers of energy demand ..................................................................................... 4 1.3 The South African air quality regulation philosophy ............................................... 5 1.4 Impacts of coal-fired power station emissions ....................................................... 6 1.4.1 Primary and secondary PM ............................................................................... 7 1.4.2 SO2 ................................................................................................................... 8 1.4.3 NOx ................................................................................................................... 8 1.4.4 Ozone ............................................................................................................... 9 1.4.5 Mercury ............................................................................................................. 9 1.4.6 Greenhouse gasses .........................................................................................10 1.4.7 Multiple pollutants.............................................................................................10 1.5 Coal-fired power station emission control .............................................................11 1.5.1 Pre-combustion cleaning ..................................................................................11 1.5.2 PM control ........................................................................................................11 1.5.3 NOx control .......................................................................................................12 1.5.4 SO2 control .......................................................................................................12 1.5.5 Mercury control ................................................................................................13 1.5.6 Proposed CO2 control .......................................................................................13 ii Abstract 1.5.7 Current control measures at South African coal-fired power stations ................14 1.6 Motivation for the research ...................................................................................16 1.7 Study aims and objectives ...................................................................................17 1.8 Organization of this document .............................................................................18 2 Data and methods.......................................................................................................19 2.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................19 2.1.1 Journal article: A critical comparison of gaseous coal-fired large boiler emission estimation in South Africa ..................................................................................................19 2.1.2 Journal article: The impact of the South African energy crisis on emissions .....19 2.1.3 Journal article: A perspective of South African coal-fired power station emissions 19 2.1.4 Journal article: Emissions management and health exposure: Should all power stations be treated equal? ..................................................................................................20 2.2 Conclusion ...........................................................................................................44 3 Journal article: A critical comparison of gaseous coal-fired large boiler emission estimation in South Africa .........................................................................................................45 Thesis objective: .................................................................................................................46 Abstract ...............................................................................................................................46 3.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................47 3.2 Emission estimation techniques for large boilers ..................................................48 3.2.1 Past plant-specific emission factor techniques (1982-1995) .............................48 3.2.2 Mass balance techniques (1995-March 2015/Current) .....................................50 3.3 CEMS ..................................................................................................................52 3.4 Methods comparison ............................................................................................52 3.4.1 Data quality ......................................................................................................54 3.5 Methods used internationally ...............................................................................58 3.6 Conclusions .........................................................................................................59 Thesis conclusion ................................................................................................................61 iii Abstract 3.7 References ..........................................................................................................62 4 Journal article: The impact of the South African energy crisis on emissions ................64 Thesis objective ..................................................................................................................65 Abstract ...............................................................................................................................65 4.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................66 4.2 The energy crisis .................................................................................................67 4.3 The impact on coal-fired power station emissions ................................................69 4.4 The impact on OCGT emissions ..........................................................................72 4.5 The impact on domestic burning emissions .........................................................73 4.6 The impact on small backup generator emissions ................................................75 4.7 The impact on vehicle emissions .........................................................................75 4.8 Conclusions .........................................................................................................76 Thesis conclusion ................................................................................................................77 4.9 References ..........................................................................................................78 5 Journal article: A perspective on South African coal-fired power station emissions .....81 Thesis objective ..................................................................................................................82 Abstract ...............................................................................................................................82 5.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................................83 5.1.1 The South African power sector .......................................................................86 5.1.2 South African Coal Quality ...............................................................................87 5.2 Methods ...............................................................................................................87 5.2.1 Historical South African power station emissions..............................................87 5.2.2 Future emissions projections ............................................................................88 5.3 Emissions trends and projections