Appendices South I-25 Urban Corridor Study Prepared for: Denver South Transportation Management Association (TMA) Prepared by: Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. Felsburg Holt & Ullevig Goodbee and Associates Sky to Ground Steer Davies Gleave May 4, 2016 EPS # 133068 Appendices Contents 1. SOUTH I-25 URBAN CORRI DOR STUDY ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHI C DATA APPENDI X 2. SOUTH I-25 URBAN CORRI DOR STUDY – TRANSPORTATION AUDIT 3. BUSINESS PARK EVOLUTION WHITE PAPER 4. EMPLOYEE TRANSPORTATI ON SURVEY REPORT OF RESULTS 5. I-25 SOUTH STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH 6. UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE EVALUATION – SOUTH I-25 URBAN CORRI DOR STUDY TECHNI CAL MEMORANDUM South I -25 Urban Corridor Study Economic and Demographic Data Appendix Denver LosAngeles Oakland Sacramento May 6, 2016 Outline • Employment Data • Housing Data • Demand vs. Capacity Analysis South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 1 EMPLOYMENT DATA South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 2 Study Corridor Boundaries South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 3 Historic Employment Trends 2005-2013 2013 Industry 2005 2013 Total Ann. # Ann. % % of Total Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 19 6 -13 -2 -13.6% 0.0% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 421 1,102 681 85 12.8% 0.8% Utilities 86 6 -80 -10 -27.9% 0.0% Construction 5,840 3,855 -1,985 -248 -5.1% 2.9% Manufacturing 1,719 1,308 -411 -51 -3.4% 1.0% Wholesale Trade 8,249 8,527 278 35 0.4% 6.4% Retail Trade 8,646 9,150 504 63 0.7% 6.9% Transportation and Warehousing 1,190 913 -277 -35 -3.3% 0.7% Information 15,982 15,575 -407 -51 -0.3% 11.7% Finance and Insurance 23,433 24,836 1,404 175 0.7% 18.7% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 2,945 3,011 66 8 0.3% 2.3% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 16,150 21,265 5,116 639 3.5% 16.0% Management of Companies and Enterprises 5,711 8,691 2,980 372 5.4% 6.5% Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 7,491 11,041 3,550 444 5.0% 8.3% Educational Services 1,062 1,888 826 103 7.5% 1.4% Health Care and Social Assistance 4,408 7,358 2,950 369 6.6% 5.5% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 916 1,094 178 22 2.2% 0.8% Accommodation and Food Services 8,707 9,764 1,057 132 1.4% 7.3% Other Services, except Public Administration 1,600 2,349 750 94 4.9% 1.8% Public Administration 831 1,170 339 42 4.4% 0.9% Unclassified 18 10 -7 -1 -6.5% 0.0% Total Wage and Salary Employment 115,425 132,921 17,496 2,187 1.8% 100.0% Source: BLS QCEW; Economic & Planning Systems South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 4 Top 10 Largest Corridor Industries South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 5 Corridor Location Quotients by Industry 2013 Industry LQ Finance and Insurance 3.4 Management of Companies and Enterprises 3.3 Information 3.1 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 1.9 Admin and Supp. and Waste Mang. and Rem. Serv. 1.2 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1.1 Wholesale Trade 1.1 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 1.0 Accommodation and Food Services 0.8 Unclassified 0.7 Retail Trade 0.6 Other Services, except Public Administration 0.6 Construction 0.5 Health Care and Social Assistance 0.5 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 0.3 Educational Services 0.2 Manufacturing 0.2 Public Administration 0.1 Transportation and Warehousing 0.1 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0.0 Utilities 0.0 Source: BLS QCEW; Economic & Planning Systems South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 6 Employment by Subarea Description % Amount 2014 2014 Total Employment Belleview Station Area 15.5% 21,344 Orchard Station Area 17.0% 23,409 Arapahoe Station Area 24.0% 33,048 Dry Creek Station Area 21.0% 28,917 County Line Station Area 8.0% 11,016 Lincoln Station Area 12.5% 17,213 RidgeGate West Station Area 2.0% 2,754 RidgeGate East Station Area 0.0% 0 Subtotal 100.0% 137,701 Source: Economic & Planning Systems H:\133068-Denver SE I-25 Corridor Growth Study\Models\[133068- Employment and Space Forecast-06-26-2015.xlsm]SUM-EMP BY AREA South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 7 Forecast by Industry Growth Rates Total Employment 2013-2035 Description 2005-2013 2014-2035 2013 2035 Total Historical Forecast Finance and Insurance 0.7% 2.0% 24,836 38,193 13,356 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 3.2% 2.1% 21,265 35,258 13,993 Information 0.8% 1.6% 15,575 19,334 3,760 Admin and Supp. and Waste Mang. and Rem. Serv. 4.6% 1.7% 11,041 16,008 4,967 Accommodation and Food Services 1.4% 1.7% 9,764 14,046 4,282 Management of Companies and Enterprises 5.2% 2.5% 8,691 15,279 6,588 Retail Trade 0.7% 2.0% 9,150 14,121 4,971 Health Care and Social Assistance 7.6% 4.5% 7,358 17,487 10,129 Wholesale Trade 0.2% 1.2% 8,527 11,398 2,870 Construction -5.0% 0.7% 3,855 4,465 611 Others 3.5% 3.2% 12,859 21,336 8,476 Total Employment 1.8% 2.0% 132,921 206,924 74,003 % of Metro Area 10.6% 11.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW; Economic & Planning Systems South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 8 Development Typologies • R&D/Low Rise Office • Office Campus/Mid Rise • High Rise Office South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 9 Existing Development by Type Description 2014 (CoStar) New: Total Space Office 29,877,352 R&D/Low -Rise Office 9,459,718 Campus/Mid-Rise Office 12,630,277 High-Rise Office 7,787,357 Industrial/Flex 3,410,171 Retail 6,804,869 Hotel 4,039,653 Total Space 44,132,045 Source: Economic & Planning Systems H:\133068-Denver SE I-25 Corridor Growth Study\Models\[133068- Employment and Space Forecast-06-26-2015.xlsm]SUM-SPACE BY TYPE South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 10 Forecast Jobs by Development Type Description 2014-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 Total % of Total Employment by Type R&D/Low-Rise Office 7,315 4,054 2,876 2,680 16,925 24.0% Campus/Mid-Rise Office 7,478 4,151 2,940 2,740 17,309 24.6% High-Rise Office 7,072 3,827 2,644 2,429 15,972 22.7% Industrial/Flex 3,132 1,631 1,098 978 6,839 9.7% Retail 5,318 2,838 1,937 1,747 11,839 16.8% Hotel 691 364 251 227 1,533 2.2% Total 31,006 16,865 11,747 10,800 70,417 100.0% Average 5,168 3,373 2,349 2,160 3,353 Source: US Census Bureau, QCEW; Economic & Planning Systems South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 11 Building and Employee Density FAR Sq. Ft./ Description Existing Forecast Description Employee R&D/Low-Rise Office 0.54 0.60 R&D/Low-Rise Office 300 Campus/Mid-Rise Office 0.54 0.55 Campus/Mid-Rise Office 250 High-Rise Office 250 High-Rise Office 1.04 1.00 Industrial/Flex 600 Industrial/Flex 0.25 0.50 Retail 500 Retail 0.19 0.25 Hotel 1,000 Hotel 0.62 1.00 Source: Economic & Planning Systems [Note] Accounts for space built after 2000 Source: Economic & Planning Systems Building Space Demand Factors Land Demand Factors • Definition: • Definition: – Square feet of building space – FAR = Floor Area Ratio, which is per job/employee the ratio of building space (sq. ft.) to land area (sq. ft.) • Purpose: • Purpose: – Translate jobs into building space demand (sq. ft.) – Translate building space demand into land demand (acres) South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 12 Forecast Square Feet Change 2014-2035 Description Total Ann. # % of Total Cumulative Demand for Space by Type R&D/Low-Rise Office 4,954,391 235,923 22% Campus/Mid-Rise Office 4,831,095 230,052 21% High-Rise Office 4,579,399 218,067 20% Industrial/Flex 2,419,701 115,224 11% Retail 4,857,724 231,320 22% Hotel 867,812 41,324 4% Total 22,510,122 1,071,911 100% Source: Economic & Planning Systems South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 13 Office Space Growth, 1975 to 2035 Forecast South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 14 New Office Space per 10 year period Forecast South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 15 HOUSI NG DATA South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 16 Population and Households, 2014 Change 2000-2014 2000 2010 2014 Total # Ann # Ann. % Population 10,637 21,158 23,397 12,760 911 5.8% Households 5,029 11,332 12,511 7,482 534 6.7% Persons per HH 2.12 1.87 1.87 Housing Units 5,712 13,072 14,369 8,657 618 6.8% Source: ESRI; US Census Bureau; Economic & Planning Systems South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 17 Age of Corridor Residents, 2014 Description Total % of Total Age Range 0 - 4 1,183 4.7% 5 - 9 1,233 4.9% 10 - 14 1,208 4.8% 15 - 24 2,995 11.9% 25 - 34 6,316 25.1% 35 - 44 3,624 14.4% 45 - 54 3,196 12.7% 55 - 64 2,894 11.5% 65 - 74 1,661 6.6% 75 - 84 579 2.3% 85 + 327 1.3% Source: US Census Bureau; US Census Bureau ACS; Economic & Planning Systems H:\ 133068-Denver SE I-25 Corridor Growt h St udy\ Dat a\ ESRI\ [ Demographics_Corridor.xlsx] Sheet 1 South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 18 Units by Type, 2014 Units In Structure # Units % Units 1 (Detached) 2,825 23.5% 1 (Attached) 376 3.1% 2-4 380 3.2% 5-9 1,113 9.3% 10-19 1,586 13.2% 20+ 5,708 47.5% Other 42 0.3% Source: ESRI; US Census ACS; Economic & Planning Systems C:\Users\mprosser.EPSDEN\ Desktop\ Denver south\[ 133068-Demog.xlsx]Unit Type South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 19 Housing Tenure South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 20 Households by Income, 2014 Income # Households % Households <$15,000 688 5.5% $15,000 - $24,999 513 4.1% $25,000 - $34,999 901 7.2% $35,000 - $49,999 1,564 12.5% $50,000 - $74,999 2,052 16.4% $75,000 - $99,999 1,689 13.5% $100,000 - $149,999 2,315 18.5% $150,000 - $199,999 988 7.9% $200,000+ 1,789 14.3% Average Household Income $114,364 --- Median Household Income $81,380 --- Source: ESRI; US Census; Economic & Planning Systems C:\ Users\mprosser.EPSDEN\ Deskt op\ Denver sout h\ [ 133068-Demog.xlsx] Income South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 21 People per Household, 2014 # People in Household # Households % Households 1-Person 5,086 44.9% 2-Person 3,771 33.3% 3-Person 1,202 10.6% 4-Person 862 7.6% 5-Person 309 2.7% 6-Person 72 0.6% 7+ Person 30 0.3% Source: ESRI; US Census; Economic & Planning Systems H:\ 133068-Denver SE I-25 Corridor Growt h St udy\ Dat a\ [ 133068-Demog.xlsx] HH Size South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 22 Housing Units by Decade Built South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 23 Jobs to Housing Ratio South I-25 Downtown Corridor Denver 130,000 120,000 Workers Workers 12,500 12,000 Households Households South I-25 Urban Corridor Study 24 Housing Forecast Forecast Change 2014-2035 Description 2000 2014 2020 2025 2035 Total # Ann.