A study of wind energy, power system balancing and its effects on carbon emissions in the Australian NEM Masters of Renewable Energy Dissertation School of Engineering and Science Murdoch University Selina Lyons BE(Hons) PostGradDip(Energy Studies) MIEAust CPEng RPEQ Supervisors: Dr Jonathan Whale, Dr Justin Wood October 2014 i | Page Declaration I declare that all work undertaken in this research topic, and presented in this dissertation is my own work, and that where data, research and conclusions from others have been used to support my findings, that these have been fairly referenced and acknowledged. Abstract With the increasing installation of wind power around the world the questions surrounding its benefits and issues are also growing at the same rate. This paper analyses the wind energy in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) using actual data from 2012 and 2013 and attempts to answer some of the pressing questions around how variable the wind output is, its impact on carbon emissions, and its influence on other generators especially those balancing the power system. Starting with a static study of generation half hour data, the report then looks in more detail at the 5-minute variability experienced across the NEM, and the corresponding impact on frequency and time error for large excursions. Notably the largest variations experienced in wind power are during wind storms in the wind power zones of South Australia and Victoria. Three of these storms are analysed in detail looking at the individual performance of the wind farms and their contribution to the variability. Lastly, the effect of the wind variations on the regulation or balancing generators is studied – in particular with large increases in wind power that causes fossil- fueled generators to decrease their output and hence efficiency. Using the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) planning assumptions, the carbon emissions for each of the fossil-fueled generators providing balancing are estimated to show the trends in emissions, intensity and clearly show the effects directly caused by wind power. Acknowledgements I would like to acknowledge the following contributions: My academic supervisors Drs Jonathan Whale and Justin Wood for their time and effort reviewing and guiding my work; AEMO for retrieving data; Cameron Lee for guiding me on generator performance issues; and David Mounter, Andrew Robbie and Geoff Henderson for reviewing content. ii | Page Table of Contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research context ................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Research aim ......................................................................................................... 3 1.4 Research questions ................................................................................................ 3 2 Wind energy statistics in the NEM ....................................................................... 5 2.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Data source ........................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Energy ................................................................................................................... 5 2.4 Carbon emissions .................................................................................................. 6 2.5 Generation displacement ...................................................................................... 8 2.6 Price setters ........................................................................................................... 8 2.7 Summary ............................................................................................................. 12 3 Methodology and data sources ........................................................................... 13 3.1 Background ......................................................................................................... 13 3.2 Data sources ........................................................................................................ 13 3.3 Methodology ....................................................................................................... 13 3.3.1 Wind power variability ................................................................................ 13 3.3.2 Storm effects on variability ......................................................................... 14 3.3.3 Carbon contribution of FCAS generators .................................................... 15 4 Frequency regulation – a brief guide .................................................................. 17 4.1 Frequency control basics .................................................................................... 17 4.2 The FCAS generators ......................................................................................... 18 4.3 Frequency regulation impacts ............................................................................. 20 4.4 FCAS Costs ........................................................................................................ 20 4.5 FCAS Regulation amounts ................................................................................. 21 4.6 Time error ........................................................................................................... 21 4.7 Summary ............................................................................................................. 22 5 Wind power variations in the NEM 2012 and 2013 ........................................... 23 5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 23 5.2 Data source ......................................................................................................... 23 iii | Page 5.3 Installed capacity ................................................................................................ 23 5.4 Calculations ........................................................................................................ 23 5.5 2012 Wind power summary................................................................................ 24 5.6 2013 Wind power summary................................................................................ 25 5.7 Variations greater than normal regulation .......................................................... 26 5.8 Variations ............................................................................................................ 27 5.9 Discussion ........................................................................................................... 28 5.10 Summary ......................................................................................................... 30 6 Effect of storms on wind power output .............................................................. 31 6.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 31 6.2 Selected storms ................................................................................................... 31 6.3 Wind turbine operation overview ....................................................................... 31 6.4 Storm 1 – Snowtown 14 March 2012 ................................................................. 32 6.5 Storm 2 – Snowtown 23 August 2012 ................................................................ 35 6.6 Storm 3 – Snowtown & Port Augusta 30 September 2013 ................................ 39 6.7 Time error ........................................................................................................... 43 6.7.1 Data matching .............................................................................................. 43 6.7.2 14 March 2012 time error ............................................................................ 43 6.7.3 30 September 2013 time error ..................................................................... 45 6.8 Summary ............................................................................................................. 46 7 Wind power variation impacts on other generators ............................................ 49 7.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 49 7.2 Data sources ........................................................................................................ 49 7.2.1 Generator production data ........................................................................... 49 7.2.2 Generator data ............................................................................................. 50 7.3 Emission curves for FCAS generators ................................................................ 51 7.3.1 AEMO Planning assumptions ..................................................................... 52 7.3.2 Average emissions – determining what is average ..................................... 53 7.3.3 Other assumptions ....................................................................................... 53 7.3.4 Curve fitting to emission output .................................................................