The End of ETA? A Multi-Level Analysis of the Basque Terrorist Group’s Decline in the 21st Century Master Thesis Katrin Roosens s1339346 August 2017 Crisis & Security Management Institute of Public Administration Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs Leiden University Thesis Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Edwin Bakker Second Reader: Dr. Jelle van Buuren Words: 29453 (including in-text references) Table of Contents List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................................................... 3 List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................................................... 3 List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT & RESEARCH QUESTION .............................................................................................. 5 1.2 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ................................................................................................................................. 7 1.3 THESIS STRUCTURE .................................................................................................................................................... 7 2 WHAT IS TERRORISM? ............................................................................................................................ 9 2.1 THE SEARCH FOR A DEFINITION ............................................................................................................................ 9 2.2 KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF TERRORISM ........................................................................................................... 12 3 LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................................... 14 3.1 HOW DOES TERRORISM END? .............................................................................................................................. 14 3.2 THE DEMISE OF ETA IN THE ACADEMIC LITERATURE ............................................................................... 21 4 RESEARCH DESIGN ................................................................................................................................. 24 4.1 RESEARCH APPROACH ........................................................................................................................................... 24 4.2 RESEARCH PURPOSE ............................................................................................................................................... 24 4.3 RESEARCH STRATEGY ............................................................................................................................................ 25 4.4 CONCEPTUALIZATION & OPERATIONALIZATION .......................................................................................... 26 4.5 DATA & DATA COLLECTION METHOD ............................................................................................................. 29 4.6 LIMITATIONS .............................................................................................................................................................. 29 5 THE BASQUE ETA ..................................................................................................................................... 32 5.1 TERRITORIAL SETTING ........................................................................................................................................... 32 5.2 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................. 33 5.2.1 Early history .......................................................................................................................................................... 33 5.2.2 The emergence of Basque nationalism ........................................................................................................ 34 5.2.3 Francoism and the founding of ETA ............................................................................................................ 36 5.2.4 The transition to democracy and the persistence of violence ............................................................ 37 5.2.5 The 1990s ............................................................................................................................................................... 40 5.2.6 Recent history: The War on Terrorism, the Madrid attacks and the end of violence ............... 41 6 ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 45 6.1 THE STRUCTURAL LEVEL ...................................................................................................................................... 45 6.1.1 International developments ............................................................................................................................. 45 6.1.2 National developments ...................................................................................................................................... 51 6.1.3 Local developments ............................................................................................................................................ 60 6.2 THE ORGANIZATIONAL LEVEL ............................................................................................................................ 66 6.2.1 The Abertzale Left ............................................................................................................................................... 66 6.2.2 ETA: Modus operandi, leadership/organizational structure & internal conflicts ..................... 68 6.2.3 Fundraising capabilities ................................................................................................................................... 73 6.2.4 Membership & recruitment capabilities ..................................................................................................... 74 6.3 THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL ........................................................................................................................................ 77 7 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................................. 81 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................................................. 85 2 List of Tables Table 1. Basque political parties banned in Spain ........................................................................ 58 List of Figures Figure 1. Map of the Basque Country ........................................................................................... 32 Figure 2. Number of ETA attacks and fatalities, 2000-2016 ........................................................ 42 Figure 3. Image of ETA activists among the Basque population, 1978-2007 .............................. 61 Figure 4. Basque attitudes towards ETA, 1981-2011 ................................................................... 62 3 List of Abbreviations BAC Basque Autonomous Community CT Counterterrorism EAW European Arrest Warrant EH Euskal Herritarok (Basque Citizens) EH Bildu Euskal Herria Bildu (Basque Country Reunite) ETA Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (Basque Homeland and Freedom) EU European Union FARC Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia FLN Algerian National Liberation Front GAL Grupos Antiterroristas de Liberación (Anti-terrorist Liberation Groups) GTD Global Terrorism Database HB Herri Batasuna (Popular Unity) IRA Irish Republican Army IS Islamic State JITs Joint Investigation Teams KAS Koordinadora Abertzale Sozialista (Socialist Nationalist Coordinator) LTTE Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam MLNV Movimiento de Liberación Nacional Vasco (Basque National Liberation Movement) OL Organic Law PKK Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan (Kurdistan Worker’s Party) PLO Palestine Liberation Organization PNV Partido Nacionalista Vasco (Basque Nationalist Party) PP Partido Popular (Popular Party) PSE-EE Partido Socialista de Euskadi-Euskadiko Ezkerra (Socialist Party of Euskadi) PSOE Partido Socialista Obrero Español (Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party) RAF Red Army Faction UK United Kingdom UN United Nations US United States 4 1 Introduction 1.1 Problem Statement & Research Question On October 20, 2011, the Basque separatist terrorist organization Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (Basque Homeland and Freedom, ETA) officially announced that its violent struggle for an independent Basque homeland had come to an end. Some two and a half years later, in February 2014, the group declared its willingness to decommission parts of its weapons arsenal. Both decisions were taken unilaterally and without any political concessions made by the Spanish state. These declarations sparked hope and mistrust at the same time. Hope, that the armed conflict, which lasted for over half a century and cost the lives of 829 people (Leonisio, Molina, & Muro, 2016, p. 127),